On April 23, at the "2022 Economic and Trade Situation Report Conference" held by the China Federation of Industrial Economics, Xin Guobin, Vice Minister of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, stated that the overall start of the industrial economy in the first quarter was stable, but the triple pressures of "demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations" were still prominent in the industrial field. The subsequent industrial growth stability faces new situations and challenges. It is necessary to strengthen forward-looking research and judgment, make cross-cycle adjustments, and implement precise hedging.Xin Guobin emphasized that in response to the impact of the epidemic, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has started to establish a "white list" system for key industrial chain supply chain companies such as epidemic prevention materials, people's livelihood supply, spring ploughing preparations, and strategic emerging industries since March, and vigorously coordinated to solve problems such as logistics obstruction and parts supply interruption. So far, four batches of key industrial chain supply chain "white list" companies have been released, with a total of more than 2,000 companies."Most of these more than 2,000 companies are leaders in the industrial chain, and there are thousands of companies related to them in the industrial chain. Now various departments and relevant local governments have established a working mechanism of horizontal coordination and vertical linkage to focus on solving the bottlenecks and pain points in the supply chain industrial chain." Xin Guobin said.Regarding how to coordinate epidemic prevention and control with industrial stable growth, Xin Guobin said that he will highlight "six efforts" to promote the implementation of industrial stable growth policies, clear bottlenecks in the industrial chain and supply chain, enhance the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, cultivate high-quality enterprise groups, and provide relief and relief for the development of small and medium-sized enterprises. Focus on accelerating the digital, intelligent, and green transformation and create an environment conducive to the development of the manufacturing industry.Black swan and gray rhino events are increasing
Xin Guobin said that the main indicators of industrial economic operation in the first quarter achieved steady growth overall. However, the Omicron virus is currently raging around the world, international geopolitical conflicts are heating up, and black swan and gray rhino events such as food crises and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are increasing. There are some differences between the perceptions of micro-subjects and macro data, and a series of new changes and new challenges have emerged in the internal and external situation.First, the external environment has become more complex and changeable, and uncertain and unstable factors have increased significantly.Xin Guobin pointed out that as 2022 began, factors such as differences in anti-epidemic policies and uneven vaccine distribution have led to more differentiated recoveries in different economies and a slowdown in global economic growth.Recently, the OECD and IMF lowered their forecasts for global economic growth in 2022 by 1 and 0.5 percentage points respectively. Due to the combined effects of monetary easing and supply shocks, inflation in major economies has hit new highs. With economic growth slowing and inflation rising, the global economy may fall into a "stagflation" situation.At the same time, the Federal Reserve has started the process of raising interest rates, and developed countries have shifted their macroeconomic policies, which may have a significant impact on the stability of the global economy and financial markets. International geopolitical conflicts have caused a sharp rise in the prices of crude oil, natural gas, non-ferrous metals and agricultural products, increasing the pressure of imported inflation and disturbing the stability of the global industrial chain and supply chain.Second, the domestic epidemic has spread in multiple places and has impacted the industrial economy through various channels.Since the beginning of this year, the domestic epidemic has shown the characteristics of "multiple points, wide areas and frequent outbreaks", and has now spread to 30 provinces and regions and nearly 200 cities. Xin Guobin said that due to the impact of the epidemic, some areas have experienced poor flow of people and logistics, the transportation of raw materials and finished products has been blocked, and the number of companies that have stopped or limited production has increased significantly. The national daily average value of the vehicle freight flow index in March increased by 2.6% year-on-year, a sharp drop from the 6.2% growth rate in January and February."If one company in the automotive equipment, electronics and other industries in the Yangtze River Delta region stops production, it may affect a large number of companies in the industrial chain and supply chain. Ensuring the smooth and stable operation of the industrial chain and supply chain is related to the overall economic and social security and stability," said Xin Guobin.The State Council has held several meetings to issue relevant policies and measures, requiring all-out efforts to ensure smooth freight logistics and coordinate solutions to outstanding issues that restrict the stability of the industrial chain and supply chain. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has sent working groups to Shanghai and other anti-epidemic fronts to strengthen coordination between the front and rear, and strengthen the linkage between the ministry and the provinces to ensure stable production of key enterprises and smooth operation of key industrial chains.Third, supply-side constraints continue to emerge, and the pressure to ensure supply and stabilize prices of chips and important mineral resources is increasing.The structural shortage of chips continues, and the delivery time of chips from some major international manufacturers has been extended to more than 30 weeks, which continues to restrict the release of production capacity of automobiles and consumer electronics.In addition, important mineral resources such as copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium and platinum have a high degree of external dependence and relatively concentrated import sources. Under the combined influence of factors such as geopolitical conflicts, capacity cycles and capital speculation, the risk of shortages has increased significantly. The situation of global shipping blockages and rising freight prices has not yet been significantly alleviated.Fourth, the recovery of market demand faces constraints, and the endogenous momentum of industrial economic recovery is still insufficient.Since March, consumption recovery has been repeatedly disturbed by the epidemic, and the total retail sales of consumer goods in prefecture-level cities where local confirmed cases have occurred accounted for more than 35% of the national total.Xin Guobin believes that as some regions raise the level of epidemic prevention and control and consumption venues are restricted, consumption growth may slow down again. Insufficient investment momentum, the impact of the epidemic, and increased market uncertainty have led to a decline in the willingness of manufacturing companies to invest. At the same time, export uncertainty is also rising. With the ebb of stimulus policies in developed economies, the gradual recovery of production capacity in emerging economies, and the weakening demand for epidemic prevention materials, coupled with last year's high base factor, my country's industrial product export growth is facing pressure to adjust.Fifth, small and medium-sized enterprises still face many difficulties in production and operation, and market expectations remain weak.Xin Guobin pointed out that small and medium-sized enterprises still face many difficulties in production and operation, and market expectations are still weak. Affected by factors such as rising raw material prices, the cost pressure of enterprises, especially mid- and downstream enterprises, continues to increase. Some enterprises have increased revenue but not profits, and are afraid to accept orders. Although the work of clearing debts has achieved positive results, the problem of difficulty in collecting payments for small and medium-sized enterprises is still prominent, and corporate confidence and market expectations are still insufficient."The PMI for small manufacturing businesses was 46.6 percent in March, up 1.5 percentage points from February, but it has been below the boom-bust line for 11 consecutive months. The PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 48.5, down 2.9 percentage points from the previous month, and also below the critical value. Companies' inventories are also increasing, and many companies feel a greater impact on the sales chain," said Xin Guobin.He believes that since March, some indicators have slowed down significantly, and downward pressure has further increased. The triple pressure of "demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations" is still prominent in the industrial field, and the recovery is still uneven and unstable. However, China's industrial development still has great resilience and potential. The effects of various industrial growth stabilization policies introduced since the fourth quarter of last year are continuing to emerge. The policy dividends of combined tax cuts and fee reductions, enhancing the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, and expanding domestic demand are still being released, and the positive factors supporting the steady growth of the industrial economy are also accumulating. The long-term positive fundamentals of my country's industrial economy have not changed, and the overall trend of recovery and development has not changed.Implementation of relief policies
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