Counterpoint：全球半导体短缺情况或在今年下半年得到显著缓解

According to Counterpoint Research's latest smartphone component tracking report, the global semiconductor chip shortage is likely to continue to ease in the second half of 2022 as the supply-demand gap for most components narrows.

报告称，零部件的短缺在过去两年一直困扰着许多行业，整个供应链的供应商为了解决相关的不确定因素均付出了很多努力。自 2021 年底以来，这个供需缺口一直在缩小，表明整个生态系统的供应紧张情况即将结束。包括主流应用处理器、功率放大器和射频收发器在内的 5G 相关芯片的库存量显著增加。但也存在一些例外情况，例如老一代 4G 处理器和电源管理芯片。

▲Data source: Counterpoint Research Smartphone Component Tracking Report, April 2022.

In terms of PCs and laptops, the supply gap of the most important PC components such as power management chips, Wi-Fi and I/O interface chips has narrowed. William Li, semiconductor and component research analyst, commented: "We have seen major OEMs and ODMs continue to increase their inventory of components to cope with the uncertainty brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year."

然而，Li 认为 2022 年上半年出货量将下调，这主要是渠道商库存量的增加和人们对于 PC 的消费势头放缓造成的。“考虑到晶圆的扩大生产和多元化的供应商，我们见证了零部件供应情况的显著改善，至少在第一季度是这样的。目前，半导体行业发展的最大风险因素是在中国各地发生的封锁情况，尤其是在上海及其周边地区。但如果政府能够控制疫情并帮助主要半导体生态的行业参与者迅速扭转不利局面，相信更大面积的半导体短缺情况将在第三季度末或第四季度初得到缓解。”

“Last year, supply constraints coincided with a rebound in consumer and corporate demand, which caused a lot of difficulties for the entire supply chain. But in the past few months, the weak demand in the semiconductor industry and the corresponding increase in inventory have alleviated this situation. The problem now is not inventory shortages, but the impact of national lockdown policies on the entire ecosystem. We are currently seeing a series of domino effects of lockdown policies in China.” Dale Gai, director of semiconductor and component research at Counterpoint Research, said.