The mystery of mobile phone shipments: 5G declines, 4G rebounds! How do experts judge?

      The fast-paced 5G has brought bad news.

　　According to the domestic mobile phone shipment data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology in January this year, 5G mobile phone shipments were 26.324 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. This is also a rare year-on-year decrease in domestic 5G mobile phone shipments.

　　What is more serious is that from the perspective of the proportion of 5G mobile phones in mobile phone shipments in the same period, it has been declining month-on-month since November 2021.

　　This made many netizens exclaim, with the popularization of 5G networks today, 4G mobile phones are popular again?

　　5G mobile phones are no longer popular? Shipments have seen a rare decline

　　With the advancement of 5G commercialization, 2021 will see the rapid popularization of 5G mobile phones.

　　According to data released by the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in November 2021, the domestic market shipped 35.252 million mobile phones, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%. Among them, 5G mobile phones accounted for 28.967 million, a year-on-year increase of 43.9%, accounting for 82.2% of mobile phone shipments in the same period. This is also the first time that the proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments has exceeded 80%.

　　However, after the peak, there was a decline. In December 2021 and January of this year, the proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments began to decline, reaching 81.3% and 79.7% respectively.

　　What is more noteworthy is that in January this year, the domestic market shipped 33.022 million mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%. Among them, 5G mobile phone shipments were 26.324 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%. The shipment of 5G mobile phones in January this year also hit the lowest level in nearly four months.

　　This has also triggered many netizens to complain about 5G, "5G phones and 5G packages are too expensive, I can't afford them!", "I didn't feel the speed of 5G, and using a 4G phone is also good."

　　Communications industry observer Xiang Ligang told Sina Technology that in January this year, 5G mobile phone shipments fell by 3.5% year-on-year, far lower than the 17.7% decline in the overall mobile phone market. The reason behind this may be the epidemic, which has reduced users' spending power.

　　He believes that with the construction of 5G networks, users' network demands will increase, and more and more users will use 5G phones. Currently, 80% of users will choose 5G phones when buying mobile phones, while only about 20% are willing to choose 4G phones, which is actually a relatively low share. "That is to say, it is not that there is no so-called popular 5G application, so everyone will not try to use 5G."

　　Sina Technology noted that in January this year, 30 new mobile phone models were launched in the domestic market, a year-on-year decrease of 43.4%; among them, there were 15 5G mobile phones, a year-on-year decrease of 53.1%, accounting for 50% of the number of new mobile phone models launched in the same period. As January was close to the Spring Festival, mobile phone manufacturers launched fewer 5G mobile phone models, which was also related to the decline in shipments.

　　Are 4G mobile phones popular again?

　　Some even believe that the decline in 5G mobile phone shipments is due to the resurgence of sales of 4G mobile phones.

　　According to the data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, the shipments of 4G mobile phones in January this year were 6.42 million units, while the shipments in January 2021 were 12.54 million units. In comparison with the same period, the shipments of 4G mobile phones did not rebound significantly year-on-year. However, in comparison with the month, the shipments of 4G mobile phones in January this year did hit the second highest point since April 2021.

　　Independent telecom analyst Fu Liang believes that netizens have misunderstood the data and that 4G mobile phone sales have not rebounded significantly.

　　First of all, "shipment volume" is not "sales volume". "Shipment volume" is not "shipped" to users, but "shipped" by manufacturers. The goods will have different "retention" periods in the channels. Therefore, "shipment volume" cannot directly reflect "sales volume".

　　Secondly, in January this year, 5G mobile phone shipments declined compared with the previous three months, but the decline was not large, and these three months significantly exceeded the shipments in each month of the previous six months. At the same time, from April 2021 to January 2022, 4G mobile phone shipments reached a maximum of 6.47 million (October 2021), a minimum of 5.54 million (July 2021), and an average of 5.975 million. The upper and lower amplitudes are only (-7.3%, 8.3%). Since the production line is scheduled in batches, this difference can be said to be negligible and does not constitute a trend change.

　　However, the rebound in 4G mobile phone shipments is indeed worthy of attention.

　　In fact, the third quarter report of 2021 released by research firm IDC showed that although 5G mobile phones have become the mainstream in China's smartphone market, the proportion of domestic 4G smartphone shipments in the quarter rebounded for the first time in nearly two years.

　　IDC analysis said that on the one hand, this was because Huawei was forced to shift significantly to 4G products due to force majeure, and on the other hand, the market demand for entry-level 4G products from other leading manufacturers still showed clear continuity, including the launch of several new 4G products in the domestic market in the second half of the year.

　　Xiang Ligang believes that 4G mobile phones will not necessarily be completely replaced by 5G mobile phones in the future, because the cost of 5G chips and modules is still higher than that of 4G. This means that there are still some 4G mobile phones with very low costs and there is still demand in the 100-yuan and 1,000-yuan phone markets.

　　Fu Liang also pointed out that there are currently few 5G mobile phones priced below 1,000 yuan, and 5G mobile phones cannot meet the needs of some users. Therefore, 4G still occupies a certain share in entry-level mobile phones. The key to expanding the share of 5G mobile phones in the future is not high-end mobile phones priced above 5,000 yuan, but the replacement of low-end mobile phones such as 4G in the 500-1,000 yuan range.

　　Downstream markets: the next battle for 5G

　　As experts have said, due to cost reasons, 4G mobile phones still have a certain survival space in the low-end market such as 100-yuan and 1,000-yuan phones. To win this market, 5G networks and 5G mobile phones must be popularized in the sinking market.

　　Judging from the plans of the three major operators, actions are already being taken.

　　At the main forum of the 2021 China Mobile Global Partner Conference, Yang Jie, Chairman of China Mobile, stated that they will make every effort to build a high-quality 5G network covering the whole country, ensuring that by the end of 2022, basically achieve continuous 5G coverage in townships and above across the country, as well as effective coverage of important parks, hot spots, and developed rural areas; China Telecom and China Unicom are also extending 5G co-construction and sharing coverage to county towns and developed townships.

　　But one of the difficulties operators face is the mismatch between users' phones and packages.

　　As of January this year, the total number of 5G package users of the three companies has reached 750 million; however, since 2019, the cumulative shipments of 5G mobile phones in China have only reached 469 million. This means that 280 million users who use 5G packages are using 4G phones.

　　What's even more embarrassing is that some users have turned off the 5G network function after buying 5G mobile phones due to power consumption and other issues, and use them directly as 4G mobile phones. This makes operators who have invested a lot of money in building 5G networks even more anxious.

　　In fact, guiding users to turn on the 5G switch of 5G mobile phones has become one of the important tasks of local branches of operators. For example, China Mobile has specially produced tutorials on how to turn on the 5G switch for mainstream mobile phone products such as Huawei and Apple . Some local branches have also launched preferential activities such as free data for turning on the 5G switch.

　　In addition, various mobile phone manufacturers are also important players in promoting the popularization of 5G in the lower-tier markets.

　　However, their motivation to launch 5G mobile phones in the 100-yuan and 1,000-yuan phone markets does not seem to be that strong; on the contrary, the popularity of 5G mobile phones is seen by many mobile phone manufacturers as an opportunity to enter the high-end market. The most obvious example is foldable screen mobile phones. Android manufacturers have already raised their price range to over 10,000 yuan, competing directly with Apple.

　　Before the 5G network coverage in the sinking market is relatively ideal and mobile phone manufacturers launch suitably priced 5G mobile phones priced at RMB 100, 20% of 4G mobile phone diehards may continue to exist for a certain period of time.