TrendForce: Apple to Launch iPhone SE 3 in Q1 Next Year, Market to Grow Slightly

According to the latest report from TrendForce, the smartphone market in 2022 is expected to reach an annual output of 1.386 billion units, with an annual growth rate of 3.8%, due to cyclical replacement demand and new demand from emerging countries.

Among them, Samsung's total production volume in 2022 is expected to be approximately 276 million units, with an annual growth rate of 1.1%. Although it maintains the high-end market by reintegrating folding screens and increasing the proportion of outsourcing to optimize the competitive advantages of mid- and low-end products, the mid- and low-end smartphone market is becoming increasingly fierce. In the future, it will be further difficult for Samsung to expand its market share.

Apple will launch a new iPhone SE (SE 3rd generation) in the first quarter of next year, featuring a 4.7-inch LCD screen, an A15 processor and support for 5G networks. The rest of the hardware specifications are similar to the second-generation SE. Four new models will be launched in the second half of the year, including two 6.1-inch models and two 6.7-inch models. Although the five mobile phones are expected to boost its market share, Apple will also raise its selling price due to rising component prices, which will limit the annual growth rate. Apple is expected to produce 243 million units in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 5.4%, maintaining its second place in the world.

Xiaomi includes four brands: Mi, Redmi, POCO, and Black Shark. Its advantage lies in its early development of overseas markets. Therefore, as the global epidemic is gradually brought under control, the growth in sales from overseas is expected to push its production volume to 220 million units in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 15.8%, making it the world's third largest mobile phone brand.

OPPO operates in the global market through three brands: OPPO, Realme, and OnePlus. It is estimated that the annual production performance will increase slightly by 2.5% to 208 million units. Its product planning is similar to Xiaomi, using sub-brands to distinguish markets and customer groups. In recent years, it has also actively expanded its peripheral ecological chain business, making up for the decline in profits in the mobile phone business through software services and increased consumer products.

Vivo's production next year is likely to be close to 150 million units, with an annual growth rate of 6.4%, ranking fifth. Looking ahead to 2022, as the main sales markets have reached saturation, its sales momentum mainly relies on cyclical replacement of mobile phones, so the growth space is relatively limited. In addition, HONOR is also actively competing for market share. It is expected that the production performance of both companies in 2022 will be limited.

As for 5G, driven by the commercialization of 5G, the global 5G mobile phone market share will reach 37.4% by 2021, with a total annual production of 500 million units. It is expected that the global 5G mobile phone market share will reach 47.5% in 2022, with a total production of about 660 million units. However, due to the current chip shortage, overbooking or uneven distribution has occurred. If subsequent demand does not keep up, manufacturers may be forced to launch another wave of inventory consolidation in the second half of next year.