Harvard University: China will surpass the United States in high-tech fields in the next decade

The Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs at Harvard Kennedy School recently released a report pointing out that in addition to becoming a manufacturing powerhouse, China has also become a strong competitor in the field of basic technology in the 21st century. In some areas such as AI, 5G, quantum information science, semiconductors, biotechnology and green energy, China has already become the first. In other areas, according to the current development trajectory, China will surpass the United States in the next decade.

Image source: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

The report, titled "The Great Technological Competition: China and the United States," selected AI, 5G, quantum information science, semiconductors, biotechnology and green energy as research objects.

In the field of AI, China is seen as a "comprehensive and equal competitor" to the United States.

On 5G, according to the Pentagon’s Defense Innovation Board, “China is poised to repeat in 5G what happened to the United States in 4G.” Despite advantages in 5G standards and chip design, the United States’ 5G infrastructure rollout is several years behind China’s, giving China a first-mover advantage in developing platforms for the 5G era. China is already pioneering cutting-edge 5G applications, including smart factory systems, digital twins for industrial applications, and the world’s first 5G-enabled remote surgery. While the 4G era saw Apple’s iPhone, Google’s Android operating system, and Microsoft’s HoloLens connect users to technology ecosystems, the 5G era is expected to be dominated by Chinese companies.

The United States has long been seen as a leader in quantum information science, but China has surpassed the United States in quantum communications and is rapidly eroding the U.S. lead in quantum computing.

The United States still maintains its leading position in the semiconductor field, but China has become a strong competitor to the United States through decades of efforts and may soon catch up with the United States in two key areas: semiconductor manufacturing and chip design. According to current development trends, China will become a first-class semiconductor power by 2030.

The United States has seven of the ten most valuable life science companies, but China is actively developing biotechnology research and development. In the field of green energy, although the United States has been the main inventor of new green energy in the past two decades, China is now the world's leading manufacturer, user and exporter of these technologies, and has great influence on the future green energy supply chain. Therefore, the United States needs to strengthen its reliance on China to promote green energy.

The report concludes that although the United States has led technological innovation over the past half century and still maintains a dominant position in several technologies, China has become a major competitor to the United States in the field of basic technology.