According to the latest report released by TrendForce, the first quarter of 2020 was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Border controls and lockdowns in various countries caused a disruption in the overall supply chain, resulting in low inventory levels for both customers and distributors. In the second quarter, as the supply chain gradually resumed, and as countries continued to introduce rescue measures and the stay-at-home economy, downstream customers increased their efforts to replenish inventory, pushing global packaging and testing output value to continue to grow. It is estimated that the top ten global packaging and testing manufacturers will have revenue of US$6.325 billion in the second quarter of 2020, a year-on-year increase of 26.6%.
Wang Zunmin, an analyst at TrendForce's Topology Industry Research Institute, said that although there is a surge in demand from downstream customers to replenish inventory, the recent Sino-US relations have reached a freezing point due to issues such as the Huawei ban, and the epidemic continues to escalate in the United States, South America, India and Southeast Asia, which may suppress terminal demand in the second half of the year.
The analysis points out that the Sino-US relations and the direction of the epidemic will be the key to the profit and loss of global packaging and testing revenue in the second half of 2020.
TrendForce predicts that the revenue of ASE, the leading packaging and testing company, will be US$1.379 billion in the second quarter of 2020, an increase of 18.9% year-on-year. Although the growth rate is slightly lower than that of the first quarter, the growth trend is still stable due to the increase in packaging and testing demand for 5G communications and consumer electronics. As for Amkor, SPIL, PTI and KYEC, they also benefited from the increase in packaging and testing capacity for terminal consumer products, memory and 5G chips, and their annual growth rates all exceeded 30%. In addition, due to the order transfer effect obtained by the epidemic, and the fact that American equipment manufacturers will terminate the manufacturing services for Huawei products after September 15, the packaging and testing manufacturers have accelerated the shipment process in the second quarter.
In addition, the three major packaging and testing companies in mainland China, Jiangsu Changdian, Tianshui Huatian, and Tongfu Microelectronics, are expected to achieve an annual growth rate of nearly 30% in the second quarter as the mainland epidemic has been effectively controlled, thereby boosting the packaging and testing demand for various mobile phones, AI chips, and wearable devices.
On the other hand, the market demand for large-size panels and terminal sales performance gradually recovered in the second half of the second quarter, and the utilization rates of large-size panel driver ICs (LDDI) and touch panel sensor chips (TDDI) remained at a high level. Chip Semiconductor and Chipbond achieved year-on-year revenue growth of 16.6% and 4.8% respectively in the second quarter.
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