The MCU shortage is unlikely to be alleviated due to the concentration of production capacity and repeated epidemics.
MCU is the core chip used for automotive control, and its application scope covers body power, driving control, infotainment, assisted driving, etc.
The MCU chip market is mature and relatively stable. NXP, Infineon, Renesas Electronics, STMicroelectronics, and Texas Instruments have long occupied the top five positions in the global automotive MCU market. In 2020, the global automotive-grade MCU market CR7 (occupied by international manufacturers) accounted for more than 95% of the market share.
Automotive MCUs have many specifications, and most of them use 40/45/65 nanometer process technology, which results in high production line operating costs. Therefore, IDMs such as NXP, Renesas, Infineon, Texas Instruments, and Microchip Technology mostly adopt wafer outsourcing strategies. The automotive-grade MCU foundry industry is highly concentrated, with 70% of the world's automotive MCUs produced by TSMC, but the overall MCU chip production capacity only accounts for 3% of TSMC's total production capacity.
Affected by the epidemic in 2020, demand in the automotive industry declined significantly, and MCU suppliers reduced orders to digest inventory; since 2021, the global automotive industry has recovered, but due to the long supply cycle of automotive chips, a situation of supply exceeding demand has emerged in a short period of time.
Since the second quarter of 2021, the epidemic in Malaysia and Taiwan has significantly worsened. Taiwan's TSMC is the main foundry for automotive-grade MCU wafers, and the packaging and testing plants of suppliers such as NXP, Renesas and Infineon are mainly concentrated in Malaysia. Affected by this, the automotive MCU industry may be hit hard again, and the chip shortage is getting worse.
Chip industry shortages
Source: Taiwan Industrial Technology Research Institute
Currently, most of the suspension of production of complete vehicles and parts is due to the shortage of MCUs. The demand for MCUs in the automotive manufacturing field is very extensive. It is expected that the "chip shortage" situation will continue in 2021, and the situation may be alleviated starting in 2022, mainly based on:
(1) Suppliers and foundries are expanding production. For example, Infineon will have a new 12-inch wafer fab completed and put into production by the end of 2021; TSMC's MCU production in 2021 will increase by 60% from 2020, and will focus on expanding production at its Nanjing plant (28nm) to support automotive MCU production capacity.
(2) Domestic companies are actively deploying MCUs, and it is expected that mass production will begin in 2022, forming domestic substitution and alleviating the "chip shortage" situation. For example, GigaDevice plans to mass produce the latest automotive-grade MCU products in 2021.
But in the long run, as cars become increasingly intelligent, networked, and electrified, "chip shortages" will become the norm. Building an independent and controllable chip industry chain is the fundamental way to solve the security problems of the domestic intelligent connected vehicle industry chain.
In the "chip shortage" environment, domestic MCUs usher in a window period
From the perspective of the supply chain, the MCU ecosystem covers a lot of content, including various software and hardware used by end customers, various development tools, open source platforms, etc. At present, the degree of autonomy and control of these software and tools is still very low.
However, in the "chip shortage" environment, MCU products of international manufacturers are in serious shortage. Automakers have begun to purchase chips through more channels and increase supplier options, and domestic MCU manufacturers have entered a window period for development.
A few domestic companies that have achieved mass production of automotive-grade MCUs include Jiefa Technology, Saiteng Microelectronics, Xinwangwei, Chipways Semiconductor, BYD, and Guoxin Technology. Among them, BYD, Xinwangwei, Saiteng, Jiefa Technology and other companies have achieved pre-installed products, but they are still basically stuck in relatively simple control applications such as windows, lighting, and cooling systems, and there are few applications in complex fields such as power control, smart cockpits, and ADAS.
Competition landscape of MCU manufacturers in different segments (partial)
Source: Zoss Automotive Research
MCU is a platform product. Overseas manufacturers have rich product lines and can provide customers with a full range of product options. Currently, domestic manufacturers are also actively developing various series of MCU product lines.
Automotive-grade MCU product layout and R&D direction of some domestic suppliers
Source: Zoss Automotive Research
Domestic MCU suppliers can focus on the following two directions:
Body control field: In-vehicle wireless charging, ambient light control, flowing taillight control, etc. were previously mainly used in high-end cars, but are now widely used in mid- and low-end models, and the demand will show a significant increase.
For example, Saiteng Micro has launched MCUs for in-vehicle wireless charging solutions and flowing taillight control MCU products. Among them, the main control MCU chip ASM87F0812T16CIT, which is tailored for automotive LED taillight flowing turn signals, has shipped more than 1.5 million pieces as of January 2021.
Saitengwei's complete solution architecture for in-vehicle front-mounted wireless charging
Source: Saitengwei
Power control field: Domestic manufacturers have begun to launch related products, but there is still a lack of heavyweight products in this field. Players with product landing advantages have a better chance of achieving domestic substitution.
In May 2021, Xinwangwei launched a new automotive-grade MCU, KF32A156, which meets the AEC-Q100 automotive quality certification standard, uses an independent core processor, and is suitable for power supply, motor control and other fields. This product has a wider power domain than previous products. After mass production, Xinwangwei's MCU products will expand from the current coverage of 30% of body and power control unit modules to 70%.
In addition to improving the product line layout, it is also crucial to establish an independent and controllable industrial chain. The coordination of upstream and downstream resources in the industrial chain, such as IP, chip design, wafer fab, and packaging and testing plant, will help improve the safety, stability, and reliability of domestic automotive-grade MCU products.
The main research contents of the 2021 Automotive Functional Chip (MCU) Industry Research Report by Zoss Automotive Research are as follows:
Research on the automotive MCU industry support policies, market size, competition landscape, industry chain, OEM situation, and technology development trends; the localization level of automotive MCUs, the industrial layout of domestic enterprises, and suggestions for accelerating localization substitution; the supporting situation of MCU suppliers for automobile manufacturers (including body control MCUs, power system MCUs, smart cockpit MCUs, ADAS MCUs, etc.);
Analysis and research on automotive-grade products of foreign MCU suppliers and domestic MCU suppliers.
Table of Contents of 2021 Automotive Functional Chip (MCU) Industry Research Report
This report has 205 pages
01. Overview of the automotive semiconductor industry
1.1 Current Status of Automotive Semiconductor Development
1.1.1 Classification of automotive semiconductors
1.1.2 Automotive Semiconductor Primary and Secondary Classification and Products
1.1.3 Global Automotive Semiconductor Market Size and Market Structure
1.1.4 Global Competition Landscape of Automotive Chip Companies
1.1.5 Representative Companies in the Automotive Chip Market
1.1.6 Automotive chip segmentation application areas
1.1.7 Automotive Semiconductor Production Model
1.1.8 The Value Growth of Automotive Chips in the Intelligent Connected Environment
1.2 Automotive chip shortage and its impact
1.2.1 Wafer factory closures lead to global chip shortages
1.2.2 8-inch wafers are in serious shortage, affecting many industries
1.2.3 Shortage of Automotive-Grade MCUs
1.2.4 Out-of-stock situation of major suppliers
1.2.5 Shortage of automotive chips
1.2.6 Chip shortage causes some car brands to stop production
1.2.7 Price increase and delay due to shortage of goods
1.2.8 "Chips shortage" drives countries to establish independent chip production and manufacturing systems
1.2.9 The regional concentration of the industry chain is high, and the shortage situation is difficult to alleviate for the time being
1.2.10 The epidemic affects packaging and testing, exacerbating the "chip shortage"
1.2.11 The "chip shortage" situation will be alleviated in 2022
02. Current status of automotive MCU market
2.1 MCU Overview
2.1.1 MCU definition
2.1.2 MCU structure
2.1.3 MCU Core
2.1.4 MCU Classification
2.1.5 MCU Application
2.1.6 MCU Development History and Future Trends
2.1.7 Intelligent Iteration of MCU Products
2.2 Overview of Automotive MCU
2.2.1 Application of MCU in Automobile
2.2.2 Value of MCU per Vehicle
2.2.3 Number of bits of automotive-grade MCU
2.2.4 Barriers to Automotive-Grade MCUs
2.3 Industrial Development Policy
2.3.1 Summary of MCU Industry Support Policies
2.3.2 China Establishes Automotive Chip Innovation Alliance
2.3.3 China’s chip industry lacks policy support
2.4 Market size
2.4.1 Global Automotive MCU Market Size
2.4.2 China's Passenger Car MCU Market Size
2.5 Competition Landscape
2.5.1 Enterprise Structure
2.5.2 Global MCU Market Competition Landscape
2.5.3 Competition Landscape of China's MCU Market
2.6 Current Status of the Industrial Chain
2.6.1 Industry Chain Map
2.6.2 China's automotive-grade MCU market share is low
2.6.3 Layout of Chinese Enterprises in the MCU Industry Chain
2.6.4 Chinese companies focus on wafer manufacturing and packaging testing
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