Minutes of the Next Generation Batteries Seminar Held by SNE

Introduction: For some time, we have been talking about 1 million km battery, 1 million mile battery, and now 2 million km battery in 2016. How many of these are goals and how much can be achieved are unknown. South Korea's SNE invited Hyundai Motor, LG Chem, SDI and SKI to participate in the Next Generation Battery Seminar. We have sorted out some information through reports from Korean securities companies and Korean media.

01 What was discussed at the NGBS meeting?

1) Battery demand forecast 

Affected by the epidemic, according to SNE's forecast, the sales of pure electric vehicles (BEV) this year are expected to reach 1.91 million units (an increase of 8.5% year-on-year). European car sales declined from March to May, but European car companies did not stop purchasing batteries under the condition of factory shutdowns, but slightly reduced them compared to before. Note: It is not sure whether it is more reasonable to include plug-in new energy vehicles here. 

2) Battery technology currently puts forward four requirements to battery companies from the perspective of electric vehicles: increase energy density, reduce costs, increase fast charging speed, and increase service life. 

2.1) Improve energy density

Currently, the energy density of lithium batteries is limited to 250Wh/kg (600Wh/L). The short-term challenge is to increase the energy density to the limit, increase the proportion of nickel to 90%, and add silicon composite materials to the negative electrode material. The use of LFP batteries is controversial. The market already knows that China has begun to use LFP to reduce battery costs. Overall, South Korea is still making improvements on NCM and NCA to develop in the direction of high energy density.

2.2) Reduce costs

Currently, South Korea’s target for battery cell cost (for external sales) is $100/Kwh. The main thing South Korea does here is to innovate rather than reduce the price of raw materials. The main method is to reduce the unit production of finished products through: introducing high-speed production through wide-width coating process, and increasing the amount of active substances on the current collector. Note: At present, South Korea is at a disadvantage compared to China in terms of material costs. Either give up the local material supply chain in South Korea to purchase low-cost materials, or continue to compensate for this cost gap through technology. A large part of the cost difference between L and C is achieved by China through subsidies to scale up the entire upstream industrial chain. The birth of a hero is inseparable from the nurturing of this large industrial chain. 

2.3) Fast charging speed is improved

The current fast charging speed is to charge to 80% in 20 minutes. In order to further increase this speed, the negative electrode material must be replaced. Adding silicon composite materials will increase the energy density, which is beneficial to fast charging. 

2.4) Development of long-life battery cells

The current battery life, according to the calculation of Korean companies, is 240,000 miles (300 miles of driving * 800 cycles). Whether it is Tesla's 1 million mile goal or the 16 years and 2 million kilometers reported by Bloomberg today, Koreans don't seem to dare to think about it. At present, the practices of the three Korean companies are relatively consistent, minimizing battery deformation to the greatest extent. This is currently a weakness of Korean companies, at least from the perspective of Chinese leading companies, it is a strong point that can be overcome by a weakness.

02 Views from several battery companies

1.1) LG Chem (only this picture is seen so far)

LG Chem went to the exchange with Je-Young Kim, head of the battery research center Cel, and the core point was: 

• Differentiated materials for EV batteries. The current requirement for long-life battery cell design is to control battery deformation (to minimize it) even after 1,000-2,000 charge and discharge cycles. 

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• LG Chem first revealed the use of a silicon-containing anode material (supplied by Daeju Electronics), which was originally developed by Shin-Etsu in Japan. 

1.2) All solid-state batteries 

The vice president of SNE is very optimistic about solid-state batteries and predicted several points: Hyundai Motor will promote the establishment of a solid-state battery battery joint venture as early as 2021 (LG Chem or SDI) and sell electric vehicles with solid-state batteries in 2023. 

All-solid-state batteries are expected to be used starting in 2023, and are expected to be officially used after 2025. From 2023 to 2030, the average annual growth rate is expected to be very high, reaching 66%. The proportion of all solid-state batteries in the power battery market is expected to be 1.2% by 2025 and 3.8% by 2030. Starting from 2025, solid-state batteries on small mobile phones will grow substantially, and will account for 14% of the small mobile phone battery market by 2030. 

Summary: Tesla's Battery Day is coming soon and the subsequent information needs to be continuously sorted out. Now a lot of information is not connected, and I always feel that something is wrong.