Semiconductor cold air blows into this field

The semiconductor boom has corrected, and silicon wafers, which were originally relatively strong, can no longer hold on. Affected by the weakening demand for silicon wafers caused by the destocking of logic ICs and the massive production cuts by memory plants, silicon wafer fabs have begun to agree to customers delaying the purchase of goods. The attitude of sticking to quotations in the past has also changed. Some manufacturers have relented and are willing to cooperate with market conditions and customers. When talking about the price, he admitted that "the first half of next year may be a little harder."

Some silicon wafer industry insiders revealed privately that customers who had received goods as usual during the past Spring Festival have announced that they will not receive goods during the Chinese New Year holiday next year. Taiwan's semiconductor silicon wafer fabs include Global Semiconductor, Taiwan Sembcorp, Hechip, etc. At a time when the capacity utilization of memory plants and wafer foundries has declined and has not yet recovered, the industry is paying attention to the three major silicon wafer fabs in the first half of next year. Operational trends.

Since the current downturn in the semiconductor market, the capacity utilization rate of wafer foundries has declined. Memory manufacturers have successively reduced capital expenditures and production for the winter. IC design factories have actively destocked and reduced the amount of wafer production, and even canceled cancellations at the expense of liquidated damages. Wafer foundries have long-term contracts, but the previous performance of silicon wafer fabs was still relatively supportive. Now it is reported that silicon wafer fabs have agreed to customers to postpone the purchase of goods, highlighting that the market situation has become more dangerous.

It is understood that some Taiwanese silicon wafer fabs have agreed to delay shipments to a small number of customers, and the schedule will be delayed by about one to two months; other silicon wafer fabs have negotiated with customers to allow a slight delay starting from the first quarter of next year. Pull goods.

An unnamed silicon wafer industry official said frankly that the current semiconductor market situation is really bad, and the silicon wafer end cannot survive the disaster. The inventory level of long-term contract customers has been increasing and has probably reached its limit. The current silicon wafer shipment situation is actually different from the The actual market demand does not match. Some customers have indeed come to discuss delaying shipments. However, after the customized products are put into production, if they do not pull the goods, they will have nowhere to resell them. Therefore, the customers can understand and the two parties have agreed to postpone some shipments from the first quarter of next year.

In addition to the significant slowdown in IC demand at the wafer foundry end, with some process capacity utilization rates even remaining at around 50%, silicon wafer industry players pointed out that the pressure faced by memory customers is even greater, and production cuts will have a negative impact on the demand for silicon wafers. reduce. Overall, the impact of weakening market conditions on the silicon wafer end may not really emerge until the first quarter of next year, and it is estimated that the correction rate for 8-inch silicon wafers may be higher than that for 12-inch silicon wafers.

The silicon wafer industry also revealed that in the past, even during the Lunar New Year, customers would send people out to collect goods, but this time customers said they would take a long holiday and would be exempted from receiving goods during the Chinese New Year. In addition, there are already fewer working days in February, so revenue in the first quarter of next year should be affected by these two factors.

However, in addition to the fact that the demand for silicon wafers below 6 inches is indeed weak, Global Wafer recently mentioned that it expects the company's 8-inch and 12-inch production capacity to remain fully loaded in the first quarter of next year. Taiwan Sembcorp said that it will still produce and sell all products this year. Looking forward to next year, customers will continue to abide by long-term contracts. The company will cooperate with customers and flexibly adjust its product mix.

According to external assessments, even if relevant companies make flexible adjustments to accommodate customers in the future, they should still stick to prices.

Hejing pointed out that it will discuss prices with customers in the first half of next year and will adjust them according to market conditions. Outsiders believe that the market demand for 6-inch silicon wafers is weak and prices are more likely to loosen, while prices for silicon wafers above 8 inches are more likely to remain stable.

The short-term silicon wafer market cannot escape the downward influence of the overall semiconductor boom. However, for the sake of mid- to long-term development, the production expansion plans of local silicon wafer fabs such as Global Crystal, Taiwan Sembcorp, and Hejing have not stopped. Among them, Global Crystal, which has attracted the most attention, is expected to hold a groundbreaking ceremony for its new U.S. factory on December 1, and Chairman Xu Xiulan will personally go to the United States to host it.

Industry insiders admit that the expansion of silicon wafer fab production is already "half-way through" and it is impossible to stop all efforts. However, there are too many variables in the market now. Even if long-term semiconductor applications are still optimistic, it is too difficult to assess what the demand will be like in 2024.

As for the situation next year, we have to observe whether people are willing to spend money. I am afraid that the first half of the year will not be very good, and the second half of the year is still uncertain. We can only hope to seek a win-win situation with customers as much as possible.

In terms of local silicon wafer plant expansion plans, Global Wafer's existing plant expansion is expected to be started in a small amount in the second half of this year, and the rest will be mainly opened in the second half of next year and the first half of 2024; the capacity of the new U.S. factory is expected to be in 2025 A small amount was released in the first half of the year, and it is expected that local customers will actively certify it in order to seek localized supply.

Looking forward to the overall semiconductor market, Xu Xiulan recently said that in the short term, including computers, mobile phones and memory equipment, dragged down by declining consumer confidence, the second half of the year may continue to be weak, but data centers and vehicle applications will perform strongly, and the overall market is expected to be strong in 2023 Performance was flat. In the long term, as the overall economic environment improves and chip inventories have gradually become balanced, growth will resume in 2024.

For Taiwan Sembcorp, its new Yunlin factory is under construction and is expected to be mass-produced in 2024. The company said that the new factory is progressing as expected.

Both Taiwan's Longtan plant and China's Zhengzhou plant are expanding their 12-inch silicon wafer production capacity. The company pointed out that the Longtan plant's 12-inch production capacity is planned to be 30,000 wafers, which will be completed by the end of this year. After the sample delivery client completes the certification Start shipping.