The United States has sinister intentions to win over Japan and South Korea to cooperate on semiconductor export controls

Publisher:sclibinLatest update time:2022-05-24 Source: CNBCKeywords:semiconductor Reading articles on mobile phones Scan QR code
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As U.S. President Joe Biden visits Japan and South Korea, the three countries are looking for common ground on the world stage. One place they found it is in semiconductors.


Biden's first stop on his first trip through Asia as president was a Samsung factory in South Korea.

“These little chips, just nanometers thick, are the key to propelling us into the next era of human technological development,” Biden said Friday.

South Korea's new president, Yoon Seok-yeol, said over the weekend that he and Biden "visited what can be said to be the 'global epicenter' of the cutting-edge semiconductor industry. There, I felt the power of our economic and technological alliance."

Chips are essential for everything from cars to home appliances, and they will play a major role in the development of artificial intelligence and quantum technologies. Leaders from all three countries avoided mentioning China when discussing semiconductors, but export controls are also on the agenda.

“The main issues of interest to investors (on Biden’s Asia trip) are likely to be their views on supply chains and semiconductors, and how aligned they are on export controls on sensitive Chinese technology and investment in the United States,” said Michael J. Green, president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo met with Japanese Foreign Minister Koichi Hagi in Tokyo on Monday. The two discussed "cooperation in areas such as semiconductors and export controls," according to a CNBC translation of a statement from Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

Japan and South Korea are longtime U.S. allies and both are technological powerhouses, but as of 2020, both also have larger export ties with China than with the United States.


Expert: US semiconductor "intimidation" is counterproductive


In late September last year, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo convened major semiconductor manufacturers and European and American automakers to hold a semiconductor summit. At the meeting, she asked semiconductor companies to fill out a questionnaire detailing their sales, products, technology, and inventory status, and threatened that she might invoke the Cold War-era Defense Production Act (DPA) to force them to cooperate. Bloomberg columnist Tim Culpan wrote an article on October 14 criticizing the incident, pointing out that the incident highlights the U.S. government's disconnect with reality. Washington needs to open up channels of communication with other countries. Intimidation at this time will be counterproductive and anger Taipei, Seoul, and Beijing.

Gao Canming pointed out that the US government hopes to complete the survey before November 8. There are 26 questions in the questionnaire, ranging from the mundane "What are the (general) applications of the semiconductor products and integrated circuits you purchased" to the prying "List the current top three customers of each product, and estimate the percentage of sales of the product accounted for by each customer."

Critics say the US is only trying to contain China's growing power. Taiwan and South Korea, although US allies, have also responded quickly by saying they want to protect their leading companies, TSMC and Samsung Electronics, from leaking confidential information.

Gao Canming said that some reactions were too exaggerated. This questionnaire is actually a standard tool used by the U.S. Department of Commerce to understand the situation. It is completely voluntary. There is no need to invoke the Defense Production Act to force cooperation, and it is likely not applicable to foreign companies.

Gao Canming analyzed that by the time the questionnaires are compiled and analyzed and the final report is drawn up, it may be the end of the year, and it may be out of time. Semiconductors are one of the fastest-growing areas in the global economy. For example, TSMC's inventory often increases or decreases by more than 20% in just a few months, and new products are launched every quarter or every two quarters with the latest technology. TSMC also stated at the beginning of the year that alleviating the shortage of automotive chips is the company's "top priority" and is transferring production capacity to solve the chip shortage problem.

The information the U.S. government can gather from this survey is likely available from industry groups or some sell-side research reports. For example, the automotive industry accounts for only 4% of TSMC's sales, and it has remained almost unchanged for three years, which is public information in every financial report.

Gao Canming said that the data finally compiled by the US Department of Commerce may show that some buyers have been hoarding chips, but this has been widely reported, or that certain technology nodes require production capacity, which is well known. In the ever-changing world of semiconductor supply and demand, these are only retrospective.

In order to respond immediately, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced last week the creation of an early warning system to "assist the inter-departmental supply chain disruption task force in coordinating U.S. government resources to help resolve supply chain bottlenecks caused by the epidemic." However, the notification method required by the Department of Commerce is: please send an email.

It is difficult for the industry to take it seriously by using manual processes to solve short-term incidents. The chip industry processes a large amount of supply chain data to make adjustments in various aspects of operations. Most of this data is automated through global systems provided by business software companies SAP and Oracle.

Gao Canming said that this is the part that the United States should develop and utilize. Mainland China is unlikely to be willing to participate, but in Taiwan, Japan, South Korea and the European Union, there may be like-minded partners willing to cooperate with companies in their regions to transmit data to the central database, but the premise is that everyone has equal access to the information.

Gao Canming finally pointed out that one of Washington’s biggest mistakes during the chip shortage was to act as if the United States was the only victim and that its needs surpassed the needs of anyone else. If Washington really wants to solve this problem and prevent it from happening, what it should do is to go back and create connections and show the world that it is ready to create a global solution.


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