In the era of rapid AI development, where are the opportunities for chip makers?

In February 2024, according to JP Morgan data, the global manufacturing PMI was 50.3, rising back above the boom-bust line.

Looking at it by region:

In Asia, China's manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and its performance is lower than the same period last year; however, the high-tech manufacturing PMI is 50.8, remaining in the expansion range for four consecutive months, and the industry continues to grow. Japan's manufacturing PMI continues to weaken, while South Korea's economy performs relatively strongly. Benefiting from the transfer of industrial chains in Western countries and the support of local industrial policies, the prosperity of India's manufacturing industry continues to improve.

In the Americas, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI was only 47.8, significantly lower than market expectations and the previous value. It weakened again after rebounding for two consecutive months. Mexico's manufacturing PMI has been above the boom-bust line for many consecutive months, and growth momentum continues.

In Europe, the Eurozone manufacturing PMI is still in the contraction range, and economic performance continues to be weak.

Manufacturing PMI by region around the world

Data source: Choice database

The global semiconductor market continues to pick up, with China’s growth performance impressive and demand in Japan and Europe weak.

In January 2024, affected by the off-season cycle of the industry, global semiconductor sales declined month-on-month, but increased by 15.2% year-on-year, and market demand performed better than the same period last year. From a full-year perspective, according to the latest forecast from Techinsights, the semiconductor market is expected to grow by nearly 24% year-on-year.

Looking at it by region:

In the Asia-Pacific region, the overall market demand performed well, with a year-on-year growth rate of 16.1% and a market share of 64.2%. Among them, China’s growth rate is impressive (+26.6% year-on-year). Affected by the earthquake and economic downturn, demand growth in Japan has hit a trough (-6.4% year-on-year), accounting for 7.71% of the global market share, showing a downward trend.

In the Americas, market demand continues to recover and grows rapidly (+20.3% year-on-year). This may be due to the U.S. Chip Act's support for industry development, and the Mexican market continues to attract foreign industrial investment, resulting in increased chip demand.

In Europe, sales fell slightly year-on-year, mainly due to the decline in overall economic prosperity, including the recent weak demand growth in the automotive industry.

Global and regional semiconductor sales (billions of U.S. dollars)

Data source: SIA

The Fed's slowdown in interest rate cuts may impact chip import and export trade

In February 2024, the interest rate on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds continued to rise as a whole, mainly due to the recent continued issuance of U.S. Treasury bonds and the imbalance between supply and demand. On the other hand, the Fed's slowdown in interest rate cuts will keep interest rates relatively high, lift the U.S. dollar exchange rate, and continue to impact chip import and export trade.

U.S. 10-year Treasury bond interest rate (%)

Data source: Choice database

NVIDIA's outstanding performance drove the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index to rise at a high level

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) maintained its high rise, mainly due to the surge in stock prices brought about by Nvidia's impressive performance.

Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX)

Data source: Choice database

The United States has increased sanctions on SMIC, but the overall impact is limited

The United States is reportedly increasing pressure on Chinese chipmaker Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. to cut off its factories from the opportunity to import more products from the United States.

India approves the construction of three semiconductor factories to serve the fields of defense, automobiles and telecommunications

Recently, India has officially approved Tata Group, CG Power and other companies to build three semiconductor factory projects with a total investment of 1.26 trillion rupees (approximately US$15.2 billion) to achieve the goal of becoming an electronics power. Among them, one factory that Tata Group cooperates with Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. is a wafer factory, and the other two are packaging and testing factories, which produce and package chips for industries such as national defense, automobiles, and telecommunications.

Japan will provide financial subsidies for TSMC’s second factory to consolidate the semiconductor supply chain alliance linked by capital.

日本将额外提供7320亿日元的补贴，为台积电在熊本的第二家工厂提供资金。台积电在日本的子公司中引入日本索尼集团、丰田汽车、电装公司，可见日本正在形成以资本为纽带的半导体生产与应用的供应链联盟。

英伟达FY24Q4 实现收入221.0亿美元，其中数据中心业务收入为184.0亿美元（同比+409%，环比+27%）。Q4数据中心的增长主要受益于NVIDIA Hopper GPU 计算平台以及 InfiniBand 端到端解决方案的出货量增加。

AI商业浪潮的迭起，英伟达的估值已迈入2万亿美元行列，其护城河主要有三道：芯片速度快、高性能芯片网络、构成行业标准的软件平台CUDA。未来随着AI商业化进程加快，英伟达的业绩及估值有望继续增长。

微芯科技减薪最高20%，MCU市场需求继续疲软

美国MCU制造商微芯科技正在实施员工减薪措施，计划对与工厂关闭无关的员工减薪10%，并对其管理团队减薪20%。

HBM供不应求，存储大厂产能售罄

随着AI芯片需求持续大涨，作为目前AI芯片的关键器件，HBM持续供不应求。继此前美光宣布24年HBM产能全部售罄后，SK海力士24年HBM产能也已全部售罄。

存储大厂铠侠结束减产，看好存储芯片行情

鉴于半导体市场逐渐改善，铠侠宣布将审查自2022年以来的闪存减产计划，并扩大生产。根据需求，预计到今年3月份，产能利用率将恢复到90%左右。

TI拟对位于北京的低端电源芯片研发团队进行裁撤，寻求优化业务布局

据报道，TI裁撤位于北京的芯片设计团队，该团队主要负责较为低端的电源芯片研发，大约有50人左右。TI裁撤的中国产品线将转移至印度，寻求业务布局优化。这一调整主要源自消费市场需求疲软，以及国产替代进程加速的影响。

三星暂停建设P5工厂，优先完成P4无尘室以应对市场需求

三星半导体调整韩国平泽 P4 工厂建设进度，以便优先建造PH2产线（用于代工业务），暂停兴建P5晶圆厂新生产线。另外，三星P4晶圆厂还将兴建PH3产线，用于生产DRAM等存储芯片。

各大晶圆代工厂商认为供应链库存调整仍在继续，半导体行业尚未全面复苏

台积电认为24年半导体库存将恢复到更为健康的水平，预计全年营收增长21%-25％。中芯国际认为需求复苏的强度尚不足以支撑半导体全面强劲反弹，24年智能手机和PC总量增长有限。联电预计24年Q1晶圆出货量将环增2%-3%，产能利用率约61%-63%。力积电预期24年Q1产能利用率有望回升到70%-75%。世界先进认为车用、工业供应链将持续库存调整，24年Q1产能利用率将降至约50％。

SK海力士将赴美建设先进封装厂，英伟达在美供应链实现闭环

SK海力士将赴美国印第安纳州打造先进封装厂，主要以3D堆叠制程打造HBM，未来会整合进英伟达的AI GPU。加上台积电亚利桑那州的芯片制造工厂，未来英伟达的GPU芯片将能够实现在美国本地化生产。

业界看好MLCC长期需求，村田、国巨等大厂计划扩产

业界认为，MLCC中长期需求将保持增长，随着智能手机、汽车、通信设备、IoT、AI服务器等终端需求增加，将拉动各类MLCC电容需求。尽管当前MLCC仍处于去库存进程中，但被动元件大厂如村田、国巨等，近期均宣布MLCC扩产计划。村田旗下子公司出云村田制作所表示，规划在日本岛根县兴建新工厂，目标2030年完工；国巨将在中国台湾建设第六座厂区，未来将引入晶圆电阻、MLCC生产线。

英飞凌与本田携手开发汽车半导体解决方案，汽车芯片成长前景可期

英飞凌将为本田提供技术支持，帮助其打造具有竞争力的汽车。这些技术支持将主要集中在功率半导体、高级驾驶辅助系统（ADAS）和电子电气架构等领域。以此为基础，双方将携手开发新的架构概念。

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