Depth丨All-solid-state battery, the target is far away and desperately close

Currently, more than ten companies have publicly announced their solid-state battery mass production plans.

These companies include domestic CATL, BYD, NIO, Xpeng, SAIC, GAC, Changan, Dongfeng, etc., as well as well-known car companies in the international market such as Toyota, Nissan, BMW, Honda, Volkswagen, and Mercedes-Benz.

Based on the plans of these companies, the mass production time of solid-state batteries is expected to be as early as 2026 and as late as 2030.

Among them, SAIC Motor plans to equip its Chiji, Feifan, Roewe, MG and other models with semi-solid-state batteries in 2025. It is expected to sell more than 100,000 new energy vehicles with a range of more than 1,000km throughout the year.

In addition, Toyota plans to achieve mass production and practical use of solid-state batteries from 2027 to 2028;

Companies such as Xpeng Motors, Changan Automobile, and Nissan have also stated that they will launch mass-produced models equipped with solid-state batteries in 2027.

In terms of technology research and development, Tianci Materials has formulated technology plans in the field of semi-solid and solid-state batteries and has begun to lay out relevant patents, showing the company's foresight and strength in the research and development of solid-state battery technology.

Dongfang Electric Heating pointed out that the pre-plated nickel materials they produce can be used in cylindrical batteries with different media forms, including solid-state batteries, demonstrating the company's innovation capabilities and market adaptability in the field of materials.

Zhenhua Technology also stated that they are paying close attention to the development trend of solid-state batteries and have carried out relevant research and development work and have made significant progress.

The development of solid-state battery technology is a gradual evolution process, and it is difficult to achieve leapfrog development. Its development process can be divided into three key stages:

①Convert the electrolyte from liquid to solid and eliminate the separator, but keep the positive and negative electrode material systems unchanged;

②Replace the negative electrode material with metallic lithium to significantly increase the energy density of the battery;

③Replace the positive electrode material with high-density material that does not contain lithium ions. The core difference between solid-state batteries and liquid-state batteries is the replacement of electrolyte with powdered electrolyte.

Although the problems of all-solid-state electrolytes such as low conductivity and poor stability of the electrode and electrolyte interface have not yet been fully solved, semi-solid-state batteries, as an intermediate solution to all-solid-state batteries, have received widespread attention from the industry.

Solid, quasi-solid, semi-solid, the classification standard is the content of liquid electrolyte, liquid (25wt%), semi-solid (5-10wt%), quasi-solid (0-5wt%) and full solid (0wt%) (wt% is Mass percentage), that is, it enters the semi-solid state when it is less than 10wt%.

In terms of electrolyte selection, there are currently three main routes to choose from: sulfide, oxide and polymer.

Considering preparation difficulty, cost and comprehensive performance, oxide is considered to be the easiest solid electrolyte to achieve large-scale mass production at present.

Therefore, the products currently launched by Qingtao Energy, which provides batteries to Zhiji, adopt the oxide route.

Some professionals predict that all-solid-state batteries are expected to be industrialized in 2030.

In addition to the automotive field, all-solid-state batteries will also have a positive impact on consumer electronics, low-altitude flight and other fields, especially in response to the eVTOL trillion-level market, which has stricter requirements for long battery life.

However, in car-level scenarios, an optimal balance needs to be achieved between technology, cost and market demand.

In the future, it may stop at quasi-solid-state form (400Wh/kg).

If the capital market focuses too much on distant concepts and ignores the actual progress of industrialization, then all progress may become sluggish.

At present, the development difficulty of all-solid-state batteries is still higher compared with semi-solid-state batteries.

Therefore, downstream new energy vehicle manufacturers have adopted semi-solid battery solutions as a transition and plan to gradually transform to all-solid-state batteries.

In this process, special attention needs to be paid to avoid using the name solid-state battery to confuse the concepts of all-solid-state batteries and solid-liquid hybrid batteries.

CATL and BYD have not conducted large-scale promotional activities in the field of solid-state batteries.

BYD's core focus this year is the release of its second-generation blade battery.

They plan to conduct trial installation of all-solid-state lithium batteries in 2025, and are expected to launch new pure electric platforms and models equipped with all-solid-state lithium batteries in 2026.

In terms of solid-state batteries, CATL has not yet released semi-solid and all-solid-state batteries, but they have launched a condensed matter battery. The special feature of this battery is that the electrolyte is in an adhesive form.

Although it belongs to the category of solid-state batteries, it does not belong to the classification of semi-solid or all-solid-state batteries, but is a relatively unique technical path.

It is worth noting that the research and development work of BYD and CATL has not fallen behind.

The reason why they keep a low profile on solid-state batteries is mainly because they have invested a lot of money in the liquid lithium battery production line.

In order to ensure profitability, these production lines need to reach a certain production scale to reduce average costs.

Since the liquid lithium battery production line has just been put into operation, the sunk costs are relatively high, making it difficult for the two companies to easily change their strategies in the short term.

Therefore, even if solid-state battery research and development has made progress, they have chosen to remain cautious to avoid a premature shift in market winds.

Although solid-state batteries have significant advantages in theory, they have not yet fully replaced liquid batteries.

This is mainly because the breakthrough of solid-state battery technology still requires more efforts, and its mass production process faces many challenges.

The development of solid-state batteries involves three technical routes, including oxide route, sulfide route and polymer route.

However, there are still many basic scientific problems that need to be solved, such as the significant difference between the ion diffusion rate in solid electrolytes and liquid electrolytes, and the difficulty in maintaining good contact at the solid-solid interface.

These issues require breakthroughs at the scientific and technological level before further consideration can be given to industrialization issues.

In terms of technology, core issues such as the ion transport mechanism of solid electrolytes, the growth mechanism of lithium dendrites in lithium metal anodes, and the out-of-control failure mechanism of multi-field coupling systems are still the main obstacles to the development of solid-state batteries.

In addition, mass production of solid-state batteries is extremely difficult, which mainly involves high material costs and complex manufacturing processes.

If costs cannot be effectively reduced, the market competitiveness of products will be seriously affected, thus hindering the process of industrialization.

Solid-state batteries also face many obstacles in terms of mass production technology.

For example, the preparation of ultra-thin solid films with uniform conductivity, the electrode roll method that achieves acceptable surface capacity and density, and high-temperature sintering molding of oxides, etc. These problems need to be gradually solved during the small-batch trial production process.

Some Japanese companies report that solid-state batteries may cost twice as much as liquid batteries.

This estimate is likely based on purchase prices in the Japanese market, but in the Chinese market, the ratio may be different.

On the application side, although some manufacturers have begun to choose semi-solid-state batteries in the short term, there are still many difficulties in the rapid promotion and scale of the industry.

Among them, technical issues and safety issues have not yet been fully resolved, which further increases the difficulty of fully replacing liquid batteries with solid-state batteries.

Currently, the industry generally agrees that the production cost of solid-state batteries is high and the process is immature. These factors together limit the development of their commercial applications.

However, whether it is automobile manufacturers, power battery manufacturers, or upstream and downstream industries such as low-altitude aircraft, they all believe that [all-solid-state] technology will become the mainstream trend in the future.

Reference for part of the information: Interesting Business: "Solid-state battery [cooling], have Zhiji and Haobin played better than BYD and NIO?" ", Gelonghui APP: "Lithium batteries have been subverted again", Photovoltaic Hui: "The era of all-solid-state batteries has really come? ", Autobot Media: "All-solid-state batteries are on the road, facing challenges", New Energy Daily: "All-solid-state batteries are coming? GAC-related products are planned to be put on the market in 2026", Niu Tishi: "With major manufacturers opening up and industrialization accelerating, are solid-state batteries a trend or a gimmick? ”, Automotive Engineering Society: “The [solid-state battery in cars] we are talking about now is not another spring of electric vehicles”, Gale Finance: “The concept of solid-state batteries continues to heat up, and the industry chain breeds abundant potential business opportunities”

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