TrendForce recently released a report showing that DRAM sales exceeded expectations in the first quarter of this year.
One of the reasons for the increase in DRAM demand is the increase in procurement of components by Chinese smartphone brands, including OPPO, vivo and Xiaomi, who are trying to grab more market share after Huawei was included in the Entity List. In addition, the demand for DRAM from server manufacturers has gradually recovered. Despite the frequent shortages of key components such as semiconductors and passive components, these factors led to higher-than-expected shipments from various DRAM suppliers in the first quarter. On the other hand, according to TrendForce's previous forecast, DRAM prices also entered an upward track in the first quarter of this year. Taking into account the increase in both shipments and quotations, all DRAM suppliers saw an increase in revenue in the first quarter, with total DRAM revenue reaching US$19.2 billion in the quarter, an increase of 8.7% from the previous quarter.
In addition, TrendForce also predicts that the average DRAM price will increase month-on-month in the second quarter of this year. Coupled with the increase in shipments, the price increase will likely drive the total DRAM revenue in the second quarter to increase by more than 20% month-on-month.
The rebound in DRAM prices was the main driver of supplier revenues in the first quarter of this year. The average price and shipments of the three major DRAM suppliers increased. Their shipments were better than expected, mainly due to the increase in DRAM quotes, which prompted buyers to increase their purchases in advance. Samsung and Micron, among others, saw their revenues increase by 8.5% and 9.6% respectively in the first quarter of this year compared with the previous quarter, but their market share remained basically unchanged, with only Micron increasing slightly to 23.1%. Looking ahead, the market share of the three major suppliers is unlikely to change dramatically in the second quarter.
Regarding profitability, although the average DRAM price rose by less than 5% in the first quarter, suppliers still showed different quarterly performances because each supplier has a timetable for transitioning to advanced process technology. Samsung's 1Znm (the third-generation 10nm-class process is known as the 1Znm process in the industry) process had relatively low productivity in the first quarter, and as a result, the company's operating profit margin fell from 36% in the fourth quarter of the previous year to 34% in the first quarter of this year.
Micron Technology's growth during the same period was similar to that of Korean companies, with operating margins rising to 26% in the fiscal year from 21% in the previous quarter. Overall, TrendForce expects these suppliers to see significant improvement in profitability in the second quarter of this year due to soaring quotations. Samsung is likely to achieve the highest operating margin growth among the three suppliers as the yield of Samsung's 1Znm process approaches mature levels.
The three major DRAM suppliers have been responding to the growing demand for DRAM in various end products by accelerating capacity expansion and advanced process migration. However, the new capacity added this year will not have a significant impact on the supply and demand of the DRAM market, and the significant impact of the new capacity will not be shown until the first half of next year. Samsung is not only slowing down the transition of its No. 13 production line from DRAM manufacturing to CIS manufacturing, but also intends to expand the capacity of its P2 wafer plant in Pyeongtaek City by the end of the year to cope with the rising trend of special DRAM demand.
Due to its cost advantage, the 1Znm process has become the focus of Micron's process development. In addition, Micron is rapidly advancing the evolution of the next-generation process. In any case, since Micron will not build more fabs in 2021 to expand its total production capacity, the company's DRAM wafer input this year is expected to be the same as last year.
Compared to the top three suppliers, suppliers in Taiwan performed even better. Specifically, Nanya Tech benefited the most from the increase in niche DRAM quotes, with a 21.7% increase from the previous quarter and an operating profit margin increase from 8.8% in the fourth quarter to 17.1%. Winbond had relatively healthy customer order levels throughout the first quarter.
Given that niche DRAM was the first to recover among all DRAM categories, Winbond’s DRAM revenue grew 9% QoQ in the first quarter. Even so, TrendForce believes that Winbond will not make any significant breakthroughs in alleviating the current niche DRAM shortage until its wafer fab in Kaohsiung begins mass production in 2022. PSMC’s revenue grew by about 7% QoQ in the first quarter of this year if its DRAM foundry service revenue is excluded, and the figure was about 16% if the latter was also included.
In response to the current DRAM shortage, the three Taiwanese suppliers have rapidly improved their production efficiency by shifting part of their production capacity to products with competitive advantages. For example, Nanya Technology has migrated part of its 20nm production capacity from DDR4 DRAM to DDR3 DRAM. On the contrary, Winbond is allocating its limited DRAM capacity to niche products to improve its bargaining power in the market segment; and Powerchip has prioritized its capacity allocation by determining the quotation levels of the two products.
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