Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic, the upstream supply chain of mobile phone cameras experienced a brief shutdown in February, and normal production was maintained only by overtime workers during the Spring Festival. The domestic market began to improve in March, and production capacity gradually returned to the state before the New Year. However, the impact of the epidemic directly led to weak consumer demand, a decline in consumer income, and insufficient purchasing desire. According to Sigmaintell data, smartphone shipments in the first quarter of 2020 were approximately 253mil, a year-on-year decrease of 17%. Among them, the domestic market was greatly affected, with a year-on-year decrease of approximately 44%.
Although the smartphone market has been greatly affected, at the beginning of the outbreak, the overall supply chain was still in a state of tight supply and large-scale expansion of production lines. According to Sigmaintell data, the global shipments of mobile phone camera sensors in the first quarter of 2020 were about 1.41 billion, of which smartphone camera sensors were about 1.29 billion, an increase of about 37% year-on-year. According to the current demand for complete machines, the supply of cameras in the first quarter mainly serves the production and assembly of complete machines in the second quarter. However, starting in April, the terminal began to lower demand, and the supply chain began to cut orders. At the same time, before the outbreak of the epidemic, both upstream and downstream were very optimistic about the market demand for camera sensors, so many agents had large quantities of stock at this time (about 1-2 months of inventory). Under the dual pressure of a sharp decline in demand and large inventory in the supply chain, the shipments of camera sensors in the second quarter will further decline.
In terms of manufacturers, according to Sigmaintell data, in the first quarter of 2020, Sony shipped about 350 million mobile phone camera sensors, an increase of about 7% year-on-year. Samsung shipped about 340 million mobile phone camera sensors, an increase of about 3% year-on-year. Among them, shipments to customers in mainland China accounted for about 80%. OV (OmniVision Technologies) shipped about 170 million mobile phone camera (including feature phones) sensors, an increase of about 16% year-on-year. GalaxyCore shipped about 400 million mobile phone camera sensors (including feature phones), an increase of about 164% year-on-year.
Global Cellphone Camera Sensor Shipments ranking in 20Q1 (Unit: %)
(Including Feature phone)
Affected by the epidemic, the global demand for smartphone terminals has experienced a historic decline, and it has become inevitable for various brands to adjust their orders. At the same time, with the trend of rising costs of "5G" smartphone components, camera cost control has become an important indicator for terminal manufacturers' procurement departments to consider. Therefore, under the dual background, various module manufacturers are actively cooperating through various strategies in order to maintain a close and good supply relationship with terminal brands, and the competition has obviously intensified. Sigmaintell believes that the concentration of camera module factories has begun to gradually increase, and the strong will become the iron law of the market. For example, Sunny Optical's shipments of mobile phone camera modules in the first quarter reached 130 million, an increase of about 42.9% year-on-year. Domestic manufacturers such as OFILM, Sunny Optical, Q Technology, and mid- and low-end Truly, Holitech, Shengtai, etc. will have the opportunity to break through.
As terminal brands cut orders, the upstream camera supply chain is also affected, and its shipments are also expected to decline. Before the epidemic, Sigmaintell estimated that global smartphone camera sensor shipments would have a chance to reach 5.5 billion in 2020. After the epidemic spread to the world, it is optimistically estimated that after the European and American markets began to recover in June, demand will gradually recover. It is expected that global smartphone camera sensor shipments will be about 5 billion this year, maintaining a year-on-year growth rate of about 5%.
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