Six questions! Is the arrival of Huawei TV so scary?

Preface: "Huawei TV" is a hot topic. I haven't written an article for a month, but I still can't help but join in the fun. There are "Huawei TV" concept stocks in the stock market, and except for Wang Zhiguo's remarks, the industry is very silent about "Huawei TV". However, it is indeed a hot topic in private. Some companies even started to ask PR to prepare "public opinion monitoring and guidance" plans after the release of Huawei TV. In a few hours, Huawei's press conference will be held. In addition to P30, even the closest "media experts" of Huawei are not sure whether this so-called "TV" will be released at this press conference. Then I will try to show off some of the opinions I have recently gained from chatting with some senior teachers in the industry, including several corporate leaders, before the release.

　　First, let's list all the "rumors". "Huawei TV" is a smart screen product without a tuner, so it cannot be called a "TV" according to national standards. It comes in two sizes: 55 inches and 65 inches. The 55-inch screen is supplied by BOE, and the 65-inch is supplied by TCL's Huaxing Optoelectronics. The whole machine is manufactured by Suzhou Gaochuang (a subsidiary of BOE); Huawei's HiSilicon provides the control chip, equipped with dual cameras and built-in support for gaming and social functions, and may even support 5G.

　　This short line of rumors actually contains a lot of information. Lao Ma has also read many interpretations, each with its own standpoint. However, there are not many who stand on the side of the TV industry itself. It is very sad that when it comes to the TV industry, what fills the eyeballs are arguments such as the industry is declining, hardware is not profitable, and no one watches TV anymore. Can Huawei really change all this? Is the TV industry afraid of Huawei? What is it afraid of? There are many questions, let's try to expand them:

　　What is everyone's definition of television?

　　This question may seem irrelevant to this article, but it is very important for the subsequent analysis. There are already great differences in the definition of the word television. Lao Ma once posted a circle of friends, which caused a lot of laughter. People who bought Sony TVs and Xiaomi TVs passed by each other in the store, looked back at each other, and said "SB". This joke actually exaggerated the description that consumers have completely different consumption demands for this thing called TV.

　　Lao Ma uses Sony A9F himself, because I have several terabytes of 4K HDR sources, and I also want to play "Horizon: Zero Dawn" on PS4 PRO. There is a Coocaa A55 hanging in the bedroom, which is specially for my wife to watch TV series and variety shows. They are both very satisfied. Lao Wang next door uses a Hisense 80L5 laser TV. His requirement for TV is: big and impressive! The girl next door bought a XGIMI Z6, saying that it is for children to watch cartoons and will not hurt their eyes. Lao Ma's boss uses Samsung Q9C because the boss's wife likes Samsung's design and high-brightness pictures. Lao Ma's younger brother installed his house in 2017. There are two Sharps at home. He said that he bought 70 and got 60 for free, which he thought was really cheap... It can be seen that consumers have already differentiated TV categories based on different preferences, uses and scenarios, and there is indeed no perfect TV.

　　In a narrow sense, a TV is actually a screen for acquiring content. With the changes in form and the way of acquiring content, there are many extensions, so the word TV should have been redefined or simply split up. As mentioned above, "Huawei TV" is not a TV by standard, but whether it is a smart screen or not, most consumers will still buy it home as a TV, so we will continue the following analysis from the perspective of "TV".

　　Is the smart screen an original creation of Huawei?

　　Many financial media said that Huawei created the product form of "smart screen" and wanted to subvert the industry through a TV that is not a TV. Wang Zhiguo refused to do so. He said that in fact, I, Coocaa, had made a smart screen three and a half years ago! Yes, the Coocaa A55 hanging in the bedroom of Lao Ma's house is a smart screen. This "TV" is really related to Huawei because the control chip of A55 is HiSilicon. A55 is known as a TV without a remote control or interface, and of course there is no high-frequency head. All content is transmitted through the network.

　　Don’t be proud, Master Wang. You are not the first. In September 2012, TCL and Tencent jointly launched a product called “Ice Cream Smart Screen”, which should be regarded as the originator of smart screens. But to be honest, it didn’t sell well. Maybe the concept was too advanced at that time. The OTT industry was not so developed, and AI+IoT was out of the question.

　　What's so scary about "Huawei TV"?

　　"Products are not scary, brands are scary!" This is the unanimous judgment of several black-and-white electronics industry leaders. Huawei has strengthened the label of national brand pride and is the driving force for the Chinese people to "share the same hatred of the enemy". From the annual meetings of many companies at the end of 2018, it can be seen that Huawei MATE20 has replaced Apple's mobile phones and has become the standard for "ticket circle" to show off the annual meeting prizes. Well, the home appliance association where Lao Ma is present has drawn a few Huawei phones for the first time...

　　Based on this, Huawei's strong and domineering ability to influence public opinion and public relations can easily "disrupt" the color TV market quickly. I believe that companies and veterans in the mobile phone industry have a deeper understanding of this. "Halo" is sometimes an unsolvable proposition.

　　The user base is also terrifying! The number of Huawei mobile phone users is already huge. In 2018, Huawei's global mobile phone shipments reached 206 million units, with a total of more than 500 million users. In the latest Penguin Intelligence survey of mobile phone user loyalty, Huawei topped the list with a support rate of 72.8%. As two screens in the smart era, consumers using products of one brand can indeed generate greater imagination space in the scene and convenience of two-screen interaction. Lei Jun once said at the 2013 Smartphone Summit: "The mobile phone is the remote control of the TV, and the TV is the display of the mobile phone. If the smart TV and the mobile phone are effectively combined, I believe that the smart TV market will also become a new and larger market in the next few years." In addition, the linkage marketing based on fans will also make "Huawei TV" not lack the support of loyal consumer groups.

　　Another scary thing is Huawei's strong ability to integrate industries, especially in the era of 5G. In fact, the transmission speed of 4G network is basically sufficient for mobile phone users, and the transmission of 4K and 8K high-definition video content urgently needs 5G empowerment. Some analysts said that Huawei has base station networks, mobile phones, chips, content services, and sales channels. If it makes TVs, then in addition to screens, the entire display industry chain will be complete.

　　Maybe, in a few days Huawei will invest in a panel factory, one that covers all sizes. This is terrifying to think about.

　　What’s not scary about “Huawei TV”?

　　"Who still watches TV these days?" is what I want to argue about when I hear it. At least the Ma family treats TV as a treasure, even though there are two TVs at home and the family of three still fights for it! I chatted with a foreign TV tycoon yesterday and came up with a point of view. The continuous decline in the TV power-on rate is actually caused by social reasons. It's not that people don't want to watch TV, but that they don't have time or don't have the scene demand. There are many expansions to this. Anyway, the core words are 996, high divorce rate, many DINKs, etc. Everyone can find their own place.

　　Lao Ma has another point of view. That is, everyone used to suffer from the pain of lack of content, and now that content is abundant, they are frantically filling the gap, without being picky about terminals. It’s good to be able to see it, and sensory experience is not the first problem. There seems to be quite a few such people at present. However, sensory experience is by no means unimportant, but many people have not experienced it. Lao Ma copied five seasons of "A Song of Ice and Fire" 1080P+next-generation soundtrack sources for a brother. After watching it on TV, he completely gave up holding IPAD to chase the drama on the video platform, although it seems a bit troublesome. Nowadays, many of our content is still "strong software and weak hardware", and this situation will definitely be greatly improved in the future.

　　The above is just a prelude. Now let's take a look at the hottest keywords in the TV industry, OLED, QLED, 8K, AI, HDR, HFR, Dolby Atmos, etc. Judging from the information currently disclosed by "Huawei TV", there are not many labels that can be attached to it. In other words, "Huawei TV" will not have a superior level in the most core original demand of TV, "sound and picture quality". In addition, it is not big and the shape is not advanced!

　　In terms of picture quality alone, a good TV needs a good screen, a good chip, and good tuning. The panel of "Huawei TV" must be purchased from outside. Although it has a HiSilicon chip, the main function of this chip is calculation and control. It is still unknown whether Huawei will develop its own picture quality chip, and even if it does, it remains to be seen to what extent it can achieve. Picture quality chips are definitely not dispensable. Sony's proud image processing chip X1 flagship version has gone through many iterations and has accumulated decades of image databases and pixel-by-pixel precision algorithms. Skyworth's Chameleon AI picture quality chip was created after investing 6 million US dollars and creating a research and development team of hundreds of people. There are too many examples. Mainstream color TV companies have their own core weapons in picture quality processing. This is a process that requires accumulation, and no one can directly cross it. In comparison, appearance design and sound quality improvement are relatively easy to overcome.

　　Therefore, for consumers who are still willing to treat TV as TV, "Huawei TV" does not seem to have much appeal at present. Don't underestimate the essential appeal of TV. Those who vowed to subvert the TV industry with Internet thinking are now mostly dead. If Huawei does not work hard on the essential appeal of TV, it will not be terrible in the long run. Because the content will definitely become "harder". When 4K or 8K and HDR+HFR videos are everywhere, and a movie is at least 7.1 or even Dolby Atmos, TV will not be replaced by a mobile phone or tablet. People will definitely pursue better sensory enjoyment, just like we will queue for two hours to satisfy our tongues with delicious food.

　　OTT+AI+IOT: Will Huawei have a breakthrough?

　　Except for Sony TV, which is still profitable by selling hardware, the rest of the TV companies are basically relying on OTT operations to make up for the losses of hardware. It is estimated that it will be difficult for Huawei to break through this situation, so OTT is definitely a field that must be fought for. Huawei has already made arrangements in the OTT field. In January 2015, Huawei and Universal One (a joint venture between Youku Tudou Group and China Media Group) signed an exclusive strategic cooperation agreement. Huawei Honor's TV box ownership is not low, coupled with OTT operation experience and resources on small mobile phone screens. The OTT resources of "Huawei TV" are obviously not a shortcoming, and the next step is to test the ability of the operation department. In addition, how to quickly increase the number of terminals is also a big issue.

　　Many media people believe that Huawei's entry into the TV field is not for the sake of entertainment, and the huge IoT behind it is Huawei's real target market. The comprehensive upgrade of Huawei's HiLink smart home system also confirms Huawei's ambition in the IOT market. Huawei hopes that HiLink will cover one-third of IoT devices in the next three years, so building a smart home core hub terminal device is obviously the icing on the cake.

　　This concept is not new. At this year's AWE, many companies either announced or have initially realized that the TV is the core of the entire smart home control and display. It is true that Huawei has cloud, end, edge, and core, fully connected architecture standards, and can empower the entire smart industry ecosystem end-to-end. However, there are many people doing this. Putting aside the "islands" (closed IoT platforms built by brand companies) mentioned by "Huawei", there are also many people who want to serve the industry as connectors, such as the upgraded "Jingyuzu" of JD.com and Alibaba.

　　I have talked about this topic with industry leaders countless times. This seemingly rich AIoT story is indeed very basic. Any platform that connects people will definitely attract a large circle of friends during meetings, and even some companies that are also working on IoT ecosystems. But the reality is that companies of a certain scale will not put all their eggs in one basket. This will be like the e-commerce model played by many home appliance companies. The same product has different SKUs on different platforms. I will not offend any of them, I will cooperate with them, and I am even a rule maker myself.

　　The biggest problem is that the number of permutations and combinations formed by more and more SKUs is extremely large, and the possibility of creating an ideal and colorful smart home ecosystem is getting lower and lower. So can the charm and experience of Huawei's HiLink platform surpass the quality demands of the hardware itself? Or can Huawei integrate the richest and best products in the entire smart home industry? Huawei's pain points are actually the same as many platforms. Everyone is just competing for territory.

　　Relatively speaking, Xiaomi's model may be more stable. In addition to Xiaomi's own brand of hardware, Xiaomi's ecological chain companies are more loyal to the IoT platform. IoT competes on the richness of scenarios, while AIoT generates and collects massive amounts of user and user behavior data through the Internet of Things, stores them in the cloud and edge, and then analyzes big data to obtain a higher form of intelligent behavior. Then the ownership and analysis rights of user data, and even the interface permissions of the platform and hardware will be key issues affecting the implementation of intelligent scenarios. To give an immature example, going home to open the smart lock, closing the curtains, turning on the lights, and playing music is an IoT scenario; holding a sleeping child to open the smart lock, closing the curtains without turning on the lights or playing music is artificial intelligence + IoT.

　　Is Huawei TV more important as 2C or 2B?

　　At present, the bigwigs in the black electronics industry generally believe that if the annual sales target of "Huawei TV" is 10 million units as reported by the media, it is pure fantasy. As a durable consumer goods market, no matter how much Huawei has technological and brand advantages, it cannot change the overall pattern of the industry in the short term. If the sales focus is on the 2B market, there is still room for imagination. Then the scene of "Huawei TV" is not just smart home.

　　In fact, Huawei's AI commercial products are almost household names. It has launched products such as Huawei Cloud AI Market, Huawei Cloud "Three Engines", and Huawei's full-stack full-scenario AI solutions. In recent years, it has cooperated with many fields such as medical care, coal mining, and film to launch a variety of artificial intelligence solutions, breaking through many bottlenecks in traditional industries. At the same time, many fields such as medical care, security, manufacturing, commercial services, and government affairs disclosure have huge demands for smart screens, but now most of them are replaced by TVs. If "Huawei TV" becomes a display and even interactive terminal in commercial solutions, it really has great potential.

　　So far, I have written a lot, and even strayed from the topic. Let’s stop here! I am still looking forward to “Huawei TV”. Whether it is called TV or not, the industry chain reaction, public opinion orientation, and industry attention triggered by “Huawei TV” are quite high. The black-and-white industry does need more new players to enter. Even Internet TVs that have died or are in poor condition have made indelible contributions to this industry. Otherwise, how can the industry improve itself? Therefore, in the end, I still wish Huawei success and bring new changes and new thinking to the entire industry. More importantly, let everyone still need TV, or even a big screen!