What characteristics will the robotics industry present in 2023?

At the beginning of 2023, the prosperity of the terminal industry continued to decline, and a cold wind blew towards the industry.

The current world political and economic situation is complex and intricate. my country's production and economic operations are still facing great pressure. The slowdown in downstream terminal demand has led to insufficient production momentum in the manufacturing industry, and the robotics industry has also been affected to varying degrees.

According to data from Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII), in the first three quarters of 2023, the sales volume in the Chinese market was about 233,800 units , a year-on-year increase of 6.21% . GGII predicts that the annual sales volume of industrial robots in the Chinese market in 2023 will be about 316,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.29%.

From the enterprise level, the Matthew effect continues to intensify. On the one hand, the growth momentum of the leading enterprises remains unabated and their scale advantages are further expanding; on the other hand, the survival pressure of many small and medium-sized enterprises has doubled, and they are facing pressures and challenges in many aspects such as orders, capital, and supply chain.

So, what are the characteristics of the robotics industry this year?

Humanoid robots are on the rise

This year, the trend of humanoid robots has been growing stronger. After the progress of the humanoid robot Opmus Prime was announced, humanoid robots have sprung up around the world. Companies represented by iFlytek and Xiaopeng Motors have successively launched their own humanoid robots.

Amid the fanfare, humanoid robots have attracted close attention from capital and the industrial chain.

In the capital world, capital has been betting on the future track of humanoid robots, such as Meituan's investment in Galaxy Universal Robots, Baidu and BYD's investment in Zhiyuan Robotics. At the same time, as an old player in the industry, UBTECH has also received attention from many parties. Tianqi Shares has established a joint venture with it, targeting the field of automotive applications. It is worth mentioning that UBTECH also launched a march into the "first stock of humanoid robots" this year, submitting a prospectus to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, and is expected to be listed on January 5, 2024.

Due to the frequent output of this good news, humanoid robot concept stocks continued to rise. Among them, the stocks of listed companies such as Zhongda Lide, Buke, Li, Yuanda Intelligent, Bio Intelligent, Zhongwei, Saiwei Intelligent, and Mingzhi Electric Appliances saw a sharp rise.

Many listed companies have announced their involvement in "humanoid robots" and have used interactive platforms and other channels to convey that they have participated in or have the ability to engage in related aspects of humanoid robots, such as Haozhi Electromechanical, Buke Electric, Robotics, Junpu Intelligent, Top Group, Orbbec, Luxshare Precision, Sanfeng Intelligent, Jiangsu Leili, Boshi Shares , etc.

From the policy perspective, various parts of the country have successively issued industrial policies related to robots. Among them, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology mentioned humanoid robots three times in half a year (September, November, and December), and the policy orientation is very clear.

For example, on November 2, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", which mentioned: Humanoid robots integrate advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence, high-end manufacturing, and new materials, and are expected to become disruptive products after computers, robots, and automobiles in the future.

GGII predicts that the global penetration rate of humanoid robots in service robots is expected to reach 3.5% in 2026, with a market size of over US$2 billion. By 2030, the global market size is expected to exceed US$20 billion.

Strong demand for large loads

Throughout this year, whether it is traditional industrial robots or collaborative robots, "large load" is still one of the highlights in the new products launched by them . With the rise of lithium batteries and new energy vehicle industries, the demand and scenarios of large load robots have been broadened.

For traditional industrial robots, the demand for six-axis robots with a load of more than 100kg is still very strong. Many domestic manufacturers such as Xinshida, Peitian Robotics, Estun, Huasu Robotics, Efort, Canopy, Guangzhou, and Luoshi Robotics have focused on product research and development and entered the field of large-load six-axis robots to share the market.

Large-load SCARA is also popular. Companies such as Estun and Haifeng Robot are also continuing to develop large-load SCARA.

For collaborative robots, the market has entered a new stage of development. In order to meet customer needs, collaborative robots are becoming more and more "industrialized"; in terms of load capacity, they are also increasingly tending towards products with large loads and long arm spans. Collaborative robot players such as SIASUN, YUJING Robotics, LUOSHI Robotics, ELITE Robotics, and DAZU Robotics have launched large-load collaborative robots in the first half of this year. With the iteration of technology, the load range of collaborative robots has evolved from 3kg to 25kg; the arm span is also getting longer and longer, from 618mm to 2000mm.

For example, the GCR25-1800 launched by SIASUN is the largest load-carrying robot in the G series of DUCO multi-cooperative robots, with an effective working radius of 1800mm. The GCR25-1800 can grab 25kg objects and has a 1800mm long arm span, which is perfectly suitable for heavy material handling, palletizing and other applications; it is equipped with a new control cabinet, which is 30% smaller than the original control cabinet, making the GCR25 extremely flexible and more suitable for use in narrow spaces.

The strength of leading enterprises remains strong

After Estun and Inovance Technology broke the 10,000-unit sales mark, Efort has also crossed the 10,000-unit sales mark. In a sense, Efort's success in becoming a 10,000-unit sales champion has also brought a glimmer of hope to the robotics industry.

This year, affected by the weak terminal demand, the robot industry is in a downturn as a whole, and the growth rate has slowed down. Enterprises that wanted to make a big splash at the beginning of the year have experienced a downturn in the market in the first three quarters and weak growth, and are now showing a tendency to "lay down first and pay respect".

Unlike some mid-sized and lower-level enterprises that are forced to "play rotten", the leading enterprises represented by Estun, Efort, Huichuan Technology, Xinshida, and Tosda are strong and are still finding new ways to move forward.

For example, Estun's products have maintained a high growth rate in the photovoltaic and new energy vehicle industries, and its subsidiary Cloos' overall business has also maintained good growth. It has received many North American orders and has sufficient orders on hand. This year, Inovance Technology officially completed the acquisition of South Korea's SBC and added a precision linear guide product line. Except for the reducer, which needs to be purchased from outside, all other core components are self-made. In terms of organizational management this year, STEP invited Liang Rui, the former head of ABB Robotics China, to officially join STEP, deepen its external presence in the automotive industry, and achieve substantial growth in performance in the first half of the year. Tosda focuses on industrial robots +, and its multi-joint industrial robot business has achieved impressive growth.

In addition, there is another group of companies that have stepped into the right track (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, lithium batteries, etc.) and frequently won orders against the backdrop of high costs, few orders, unstable orders, and increased difficulty in obtaining orders.

For example, Elite Robotics won a large order for 3,000 domestically produced six-axis collaborative robots from a leading electronics, automotive and new energy company; Julun Intelligent signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Ruka Robotics. Ruka Robotics plans to purchase approximately 50,000 sets of RV reducers from Julun Intelligent in batches, with the first batch of purchases being approximately 3,000 sets.

GGII stated that leading manufacturers will continue to benefit from the rapid development of the new energy industry and new energy vehicles. At the same time, the Matthew effect will intensify and leading manufacturers will also be differentiated. Orders for mid-tier and below manufacturers have shrunk significantly , and they still need to wait for the full recovery of general industry and sinking markets.

Core components capital heating up

The core parts industry has gained popularity in the capital market this year. In the first three quarters, there were 64 financing cases in the robotics industry, with an average of 62 million yuan per case. Among them, there were 16 cases of core parts, accounting for 25% of the total financing.

The trend of domestic substitution of key core components of robots is unstoppable. More and more domestic robot companies have begun to use domestic reducers in batches. Many powerful domestic brands have also emerged in the field of drive to provide support on the robot supply side. At the same time, castings, cables, processed parts, etc. can already fully realize localized production and supply. With the support of capital, the localization process of core components represented by reducers, servos, etc. is expected to accelerate.