my country's humanoid robot market is expected to reach 20 billion yuan

Since the beginning of this year, China has successively issued policies such as the "New Generation Development Plan" and the "14th Five-Year Plan" Industrial Development Plan to accelerate the implementation of various links in the industry. This year, the scale of China's humanoid robot market is expected to reach 20 billion yuan.

Recently, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism issued the "Guiding Opinions on the Innovation and Development of Humanoid Robots", proposing that by 2025, the humanoid robot innovation system will be initially established, and a number of key technologies such as "brain, cerebellum, and limbs" will achieve breakthroughs to ensure the safe and effective supply of core components; the whole machine will reach the international advanced level and achieve mass production, and will be demonstrated and applied in special, manufacturing, and people's livelihood services, exploring and forming effective governance mechanisms and means; cultivate 2-3 ecological enterprises with global influence and a group of specialized and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, create 2-3 industrial development clusters; and nurture and develop a number of new businesses, new models, and new formats.

As a general-purpose robot, humanoid robots can effectively drive the development of upstream and downstream industries. As one of the leaders of my country's robot industry, Beijing has already regarded humanoid robots as the core of its product system. In addition to Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and other places have also released action plans. Shenzhen proposed to accelerate the establishment of humanoid robot manufacturing innovation; Shanghai proposed to build an international innovation base to accelerate the innovative development of humanoid robots.

Humanoid robots are a combination of the underlying algorithm "brain + cerebellum" + "body". The hardware part has the support of the maturity of machine tool components, and software problems will be gradually solved through exponential iterations. At this stage, prototype iteration is in the final sprint stage and on the eve of mass production. The three major application scenarios of humanoid robots are industrial manufacturing, commercial services and family companionship.

Driven by policies and market demand, the humanoid robot market is undergoing microsecond changes, and the number of players has increased significantly. Industry insiders believe that the current technological progress and industrialization speed of humanoid robots have significantly exceeded expectations, and have entered an accelerated development period of rapid iteration and upgrading. Recently, several domestic humanoid robot companies have announced future sales plans or landing scenarios, and many listed companies have publicly disclosed to the market the progress of their humanoid robot layout.

On the evening of August 29, Tianqi Shares announced that it would set up a joint venture with UBTECH to focus on humanoid robots for automotive applications, and the first prototype would be delivered no later than the end of December. On the afternoon of August 28, Shanghai Lingang Economic Development (Group) Co., Ltd. (Lingang Group) and Shanghai Zhiyuan Xinchuang Technology Co., Ltd. (Zhiyuan Robot) held a strategic cooperation signing ceremony. The two parties will use the "ecological co-construction" strategy to promote cooperation in all links of the robot industry chain. Top Group also revealed in its semi-annual report that it has established a robot division to develop humanoid robot-related components. It took Yushu Technology 6 months to launch the humanoid robot "H1", which is expected to be released in the fourth quarter of 2023. Dahua's bipedal humanoid robot XR-4 (more than 60 degrees of freedom for a single machine) will be officially released in 2024. Fourier GR-1 (40 degrees of freedom for a single machine) is expected to be mass-produced and released at the end of 2023. Boshi Co., Ltd. issued an announcement stating that they have teamed up with Harbin Institute of Technology to develop a humanoid robot, with the goal of keeping the cost within 200,000 yuan. In the future, it is expected to perform tasks such as chassis assembly, appearance, and material handling, and be applied in industrial fields such as automobile manufacturing plants and 3C precision manufacturing plants.

The humanoid robot project was first announced in August 2021. In September 2022, Tesla's AI DAY humanoid robot "Optimus Prime" made its debut. At the same time, Musk said that it would be mass-produced in 3 years and commercially available in 5 years, with a target price of US$20,000 (about RMB 140,000 based on the exchange rate of USD to RMB 7). At the shareholders' meeting in May 2023, Tesla demonstrated Optimus' new research and development results (further improved operation and control capabilities and a certain degree of F algorithm reuse). At Tesla's second quarter earnings conference in July 2023, Musk said that Optimus has produced 5-6 humanoid robots, and is expected to conduct walking tests in November this year and practical tests in Tesla's own factory next year.

Companies such as Tesla have entered the humanoid robot market, and AI big models are helping with embodiment, ushering in the “0-1” stage for humanoid robots.

The accelerated development of the humanoid robot industry also provides opportunities for the development of emerging parts and components and domestic substitution. Domestic parts suppliers such as reducers and ball screws from the machine tool industry may benefit from this.

The humanoid robot industry chain can be divided into three levels: upstream, midstream and downstream: the upstream is mainly suppliers of parts and software systems, including, joints,,, etc.; the midstream is the manufacturer of the humanoid robot body, responsible for assembling various parts into complete robot products; the downstream is the terminal application market of humanoid robots, including medical care, education, disaster relief, public safety, production and manufacturing, family care and other fields. Among them, the core components of the robot mainly include precision reducers, AC and controllers. At the same time, ball screws, which are closely related to robot actions, will be used in large quantities in various types of robots, and the market space is expected to increase significantly. According to reports, the Tesla humanoid robot Optimus has a total of 28 joint actuators in the torso, including 14 linear actuators and 14 rotary actuators. The three linear actuators distributed in the elbows, wrists and legs are all equipped with roller screws.

Most humanoid robots use reverse planetary roller screws. Normal planetary roller screws drive the nut to achieve axial movement by rotating the screw, while the reverse type drives the screw to move axially by driving the nut. The difficulty lies in: (1) The nut processing is difficult: When processing the internal thread raceway in an ordinary nut, a rod is usually passed through the middle of the grinding wheel. The grinding wheel is sent into the interior through the bending of the rod and the internal spiral groove is ground. However, the nut on the reverse planetary roller screw is relatively long. The longer the nut, the more likely the rod and nut will collide and interfere; (2) The planetary roller screws used in humanoid robots are much smaller than ordinary products. The smaller the screw, the higher the processing difficulty. Correspondingly, higher requirements are also placed on processing equipment.

The reducers used in humanoid robots are mainly harmonic reducers, and planetary reducers may be used as substitutes. Precision reducers are mainly used in various joints of robots, responsible for converting the high-speed running power output by the servo motor into low-speed, high-torque movement, which determines the accuracy and load of the robot. General transmission reducers have low control accuracy and can meet the basic power transmission requirements of the equipment. Precision reducers have higher accuracy, longer service life, and are more reliable and stable.

In view of this, machine tool companies can pay close attention to the development trends and parts and equipment needs in the field of humanoid robots, and provide them with applicable core components and machine tool equipment for manufacturing components in a timely manner.

Reviewing Editor: Huang Fei