As we enter the opening round of 2022, the word "uncertainty" is often around us.
In the first half of 2022, various shadows such as rising raw material costs, the epidemic, extended supply cycles, rising labor and logistics costs shrouded the manufacturing industry, bringing varying degrees of impact on the robotics industry chain.
The most intuitive thing is that the output of industrial robots is lower than expected. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics,
the cumulative output of industrial robots from January to June 2022 was 202,436 units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.2%.
As the "joint" of industrial robots, will the development of the reducer industry be affected?
In order to understand the situation of the reducer market in the first half of this year, Gaogong Robot compared and analyzed the following 11 listed reducer companies to sort out the survival status and status of domestic reducer companies.
In terms of operating income, except for Shuanghuan Transmission, Green Harmonic and Zhongji Kemei, the revenue of other reducer companies has declined; in terms of net profit, Shuanghuan Transmission, Green Harmonic, Julun Intelligent, Ningbo Dongli and Zhongji Kemei are still in a growth trend; in terms of non-net profit, Zhongji Kemei grew the fastest, while Julun Intelligent declined the most.
Below, Gaogong Robot will further analyze the 11 listed reducer companies.
3 happy companies: performance is rising
As can be seen from the above table,
Shuanghuan Transmission, Green Harmonic, and Zhongji Kemei
achieved year-on-year growth in revenue, net profit, and non-net profit. Among them, Zhongji Kemei's net profit and non-net profit grew the fastest, both exceeding 300%.
Regarding the reasons for the performance growth,
Zhongji Kemei mentioned in its 2022 first half report that the company's revenue from January to June 2022 was 14 million yuan, up 12.38% from 13 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the promotion of product delivery acceptance and market development efforts in this period, and
the increase in harmonic reducer sales revenue by 16 million yuan compared with the previous period.
The growth in net profit and non-net profit was mainly due to the year-on-year increase in sales revenue, the year-on-year increase in gross profit margin, and the year-on-year decrease in sales expenses, administrative expenses, and research and development expenses.
Shuanghuan Transmission stated that the reason for the performance growth is that the demand for new energy vehicle gears is strong, and the company's product strength has helped to increase market share; technological innovation has improved equipment efficiency, and intelligent manufacturing has built a competitive barrier;
RV and harmonic reducers are dual-layout, and the spectrum expansion has increased mass production.
Green Harmonic said that the reason for the performance growth is that after the epidemic eased, industry demand rebounded and continued to generate new demands. Harmonic reducer products gradually developed in the direction of mechatronics and modularization, and generated more diversified demands for product transmission accuracy, transmission ratio, load capacity, transmission efficiency, service life, volume, weight, etc.
During the reporting period, the company developed new products such as harmonic CNC rotary table (fifth axis), and the launch of new products is conducive to the company's continued competitive advantage.
It can be found that when the above-mentioned companies disclose the reasons for their performance growth, there are two main factors:
one is choosing the right industry, and the other is improving the competitiveness of products.
In terms of industry selection, take Shuanghuan Transmission as an example. The new energy vehicle industry continues to strengthen, and Shuanghuan Transmission has been deeply involved in the new energy vehicle field.
It is understood that the annual contract amount of Shuanghuan Transmission's new energy vehicle transmission gear products in 2022 is about 1.357 billion yuan, and the annual contract amount of commercial vehicle automatic transmission gear products in 2022 is about 163 million yuan (both have excluded the amount of orders on hand).
In terms of products, Shuanghuan Transmission has begun its layout in the industrial field since the beginning of 2013, and established a subsidiary, Huandong Technology. It has gradually achieved full coverage of the precision reducers required for 6-1000KG industrial robots; Green Harmonic completed the technical research and development of harmonic reducers for industrial robots and realized large-scale production earlier. Its harmonic reducers have 11 product series. In the first half of 2022, the sales revenue of harmonic reducers and metal parts accounted for 96.25% of its operating income; Zhongji Kemei has ten standard series of harmonic drive reducers, with an annual output of up to 50,000 sets.
8 worries: losses and declines
Unlike Shuanghuan Transmission, Green Harmonic, and Zhongji Kemei, 8 companies showed a decline in performance or losses. They are
Juluan Intelligent, Ningbo Dongli, Fude Robotics, Haozhi Electromechanical, Qinchuan Machine Tool, Zhongda Lide, Zhaowei Electromechanical, and Guomao Shares.
Regarding the reasons for the decline in net profit,
Haozhi Mechanical and Electrical stated that during the reporting period, on the one hand, the company was affected by factors such as the macro environment, the epidemic and the market competition environment, resulting in a decline in operating income and gross profit margin; on the other hand, the company increased its R&D investment in accordance with its business expansion plan and market competition, resulting in an increase in R&D expenses. Due to the combined influence of the above factors, the company's net profit declined year-on-year.
Guomao shares said that during the reporting period, affected by unfavorable factors such as the slowdown in the growth of domestic fixed asset investment and manufacturing investment, the overall demand of downstream customers for reducers slowed down, which brought certain pressure to the company's business development. However, among the industries where the company's downstream customers are located, the lithium battery and water conservancy industries are relatively prosperous, and the overall purchase volume of reducers by related customers has increased year-on-year, which partially smoothed the decrease in customer purchases caused by the downturn in the prosperity of certain industries.
Qinchuan Machine Tool, Zhongda Lide, Ningbo Power, Zhaowei Electromechanical, Ju Lun Intelligent, and Fude Robotics all mentioned in the report that the decline in performance was mainly due to the impact of the epidemic, rising raw material prices and other macro-environmental factors on the companies.
It can be found that the international environment has become more complex and severe in the first half of 2022, the domestic epidemic has spread in multiple places, and unexpected unexpected factors in economic development have brought serious shocks. The downward pressure on the economy in the second quarter has increased significantly, and the prosperity of the reducer industry is closely related to the macro-economy, fixed asset investment, and manufacturing investment. Under the unstable environment, the downstream demand of the reducer industry has slowed down, and the industry development is under certain pressure.
The overall performance is not ideal, but the reducer business is still actively deployed
In recent years, driven by the sales of industrial robots, the demand for reducers has increased significantly.
According to data from the Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII), the total demand for industrial robot reducers in China in 2021 was 931,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 78.06%. Among them, the incremental demand was 824,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 95.05%; the stock replacement volume was 107,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 6.57%.
With the accelerated advancement of the digitalization process, machine replacement will benefit from it. It is expected that the certainty of the reducer market growth will be further enhanced in the next few years, and
the total market demand is expected to exceed 2.7 million units by 2026.
Corresponding to the GGII data, as the epidemic situation eased, the output of industrial robots also ushered in a turning point. At the same time,
the demand for
new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, medical care, semiconductors
and other industries continued to be strong. High-growth fields such as lithium batteries and photovoltaics are still in a period of strong capacity expansion. The penetration rate of industrial robots has accelerated, and the demand for reducers has also been further driven.
It can be seen from the 2022 semi-annual reports of some listed reducer companies that although their overall business is in a downward trend, their reducer business still achieved growth.
For example, Qinchuan Machine Tool's current RV reducer products have been used in batches in 5-800kg load industrial robots, and have been used or tried by domestic and foreign robot body manufacturers and integrators. The terminal market application scenarios are mainly welding, machine tool loading and unloading, stamping and grinding, etc. In addition, there are non-standard automation industries, such as photovoltaics and other high-precision precision rotary mechanisms.
Qinchuan Machine Tool stated in its 2022 semi-annual report that in the first half of the year, the company's RV reducer operating income increased by 7.24% year-on-year.
Haozhi Electromechanical began to develop harmonic reducers in 2014. So far, it has formed a series of double-wave and triple-wave products with 6 series, 9 specifications and 6 reduction ratios, and further developed RV reducers. Among them, harmonic reducers can be applied to collaborative robots, and RV reducers can be applied to six-joint robots, stamping manipulators, etc.
Haozhi Electromechanical's 2022 semi-annual report shows that the business related to functional components such as turntables (including reducer products) achieved sales revenue of 51 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 156.76%.
On the other hand, although the revenue scale of some companies is generally low, they are still focusing on the reducer track. For example, Zhongda Lide has continuously combined market demand to launch products such as precision planetary reducers, RV reducers and harmonic reducers. Among them, RV reducers began to be supplied in batches in 2018, and harmonic reducers began to be supplied in batches in 2020. It has reached cooperation with Harbin Institute of Technology Robot Group, Guangzhou CNC, Tosda, Noli Co., Ltd. and other companies.
Zhongda Lide's 2022 semi-annual report shows that the revenue of precision reducers is 112 million yuan, accounting for 24.81% of operating income.
Overall, the reducer industry is still a high-growth track.
China has become the world's largest industrial robot market, but there is a large gap in the overall supply of core components represented by reducer products, and the needs of downstream equipment manufacturers have not yet been met.
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