Is the “highlight” of solid-state batteries coming?

The A-share market is ushering in "spring", especially solid-state battery concept stocks.

Gasgoo noticed that on November 11, Tiannai Technology, Youyan New Materials, China Power, and Do-Fluoride hit their daily limit, while Funeng Oriental, Liyuanheng, Lianying Laser, and Blue Ocean Huateng rose by more than 10%, and Rongbai Technology, Tianci Materials, Enjie Co., Ltd., and Xingyuan Materials rose by more than 5%.

On November 12, solid-state battery concept stocks continued to rise against the market. It is reported that 13 stocks have an average increase of more than 46% since September 18, outperforming the market during the same period. Dongfeng Group rebounded the most, with a cumulative increase of nearly 68%. Average-performing stocks such as Del Shares, Shida Shenghua, and Zhongzi Technology all had a cumulative increase of less than 45% during the period.

On November 23, the solid-state battery concept continued to fluctuate and rise. Jinlongyu, Lucky Film, SAIC Group, and Youyan New Materials hit the daily limit, and Blue Ocean Huateng, Liwang Shares, and Xingyuan Materials quickly followed suit.

It is no coincidence that solid-state battery concept stocks have continued to rise for three days. Behind the bullishness of many stocks is the fact that many solid-state battery-related companies have successively announced the time for mass production.

After "drawing cakes to appease hunger", the time for mass production is gradually approaching

The "story" of solid-state batteries has been told for many years, and the time node for mass production of solid-state batteries has also been announced for many years.

Why are the stock market and capital getting excited as we approach the end of 2024?

According to Gasgoo, there are three reasons for this.

First of all, the mass production time nodes of most domestic solid-state battery companies are comparable to or even slightly ahead of foreign companies in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States.

Based on the policies of various countries and public information from related companies, Gasgoo believes that all-solid-state batteries will begin to be installed on vehicles for demonstration purposes around 2027, and will enter the commercial application stage after 2030.

As for Japanese and Korean companies, their solid-state battery industry is planning the commercialization process of all-solid-state batteries towards the goal of "installing them on vehicles around 2027 and achieving large-scale industrialization by 2030."

For example, in September this year, it was reported that Toyota Motor, one of the earliest automobile manufacturers to start researching solid-state batteries, has its solid-state battery production plan officially approved by the Japanese government and will officially start solid-state battery production in 2026. Its plan is to achieve an annual production target of 9GWh after 2030.

Almost at the same time, Mercedes-Benz announced that it had made a breakthrough in the new all-solid-state battery technology developed in cooperation with US battery startup Factorial Energy, which is expected to increase the range of electric vehicles by 80% and is expected to be mass-produced by 2030.

Image source: Factorial

Gasgoo learned from the "White Paper on the Development of Solid-State Lithium Battery Technology" (hereinafter referred to as the "White Paper") released by Tailan New Energy that European car companies mainly develop all-solid-state battery technology through cooperation with battery start-ups in the United States.

In addition to the above-mentioned cooperation between Mercedes-Benz and US startup battery company Factorial Energy to develop solid-state batteries, Volkswagen Group also plans to independently produce solid-state batteries in Europe, with the goal of starting mass production between 2024 and 2025. BMW Group is working with Solid Power to develop solid-state batteries and plans to launch them in 2025 and mass-produce solid-state battery models in 2030.

Image source: BMW China

That is to say, the installation and application of solid-state batteries by European companies will be concentrated between 2026 and 2030.

According to an industry insider interviewed by Gasgoo, the progress of the solid-state battery industry at home and abroad is described as follows: "When domestic solid-state battery samples have been produced, foreign countries are still installing non-automotive standards."

This is true. Since 2024, the domestic solid-state battery industry has made particularly rapid progress.

For example, since the second half of this year, leading domestic companies including CATL and BYD have revealed their progress and plans in the field of all-solid-state batteries.

Overall, 2026-2028 is the concentrated mass production period of solid-state batteries for domestic automakers. According to the plans of relevant automakers, GAC WuBo and Dongfeng Motor will achieve mass production and installation of all-solid-state batteries in 2026, Changan New Energy Vehicle will achieve gradual increase in the volume of all-solid-state batteries in 2027, and Dongfeng Motor plans to achieve mass production and listing of all-solid-state models in 2028.

The "White Paper" predicts that 2026-2028 is expected to be the concentrated market launch window for domestically produced new energy vehicles equipped with all-solid-state batteries. At the same time, Chinese companies aim to achieve commercial production of all-solid-state batteries between 2027 and 2030.

Semi-solid technology route shows positive signs? Or it may be the first to move towards commercialization

Secondly, unlike most foreign manufacturers, in the research and development of solid-state batteries, many Chinese companies have added the concept of "semi-solid state" in the field of solid-state batteries.

As Pan Ruijun, chief engineer of Guoxuan High-tech's solid-state battery project, said in an interview with Gasgoo: "Most of domestic manufacturers' solid-state battery products are semi-solid. Many companies think that full solid-state is too difficult, so they start from liquid batteries to semi-solid batteries, and then see if they can achieve full solid-state batteries."

It is reported that according to the different electrolytes, batteries can be divided into four categories: liquid (25wt%), semi-solid (5-10wt%), quasi-solid (0-5wt%) and all-solid (0wt%). Among them, semi-solid, quasi-solid and all-solid batteries are collectively referred to as solid-state batteries, and all-solid-state batteries are the most advanced technical form of solid-state batteries.

It is reported that Japanese and Korean companies are currently mainly focusing on the research of sulfide all-solid-state batteries. Except for LG, other companies have no clear layout plans in the field of semi-solid-state batteries.

The solid-state battery routes of European and American companies are different, mainly emerging solid-state battery companies. In the field of semi-solid-state batteries, only Quantum Scape, Factorial Energy and 24M Technologies in the United States have clear layouts, and other companies are mainly based on the full solid-state battery technology route.

Pan Ruijun said: "Semi-solid-state can almost be said to be a concept 'invented' by domestic battery manufacturers."

So, is this a good concept?

From a commercial perspective, there may be many positive aspects.

Image source: CATL

According to the White Paper, in recent years, driven by the new energy vehicle market, global solid-state battery shipments have continued to grow. For example, in 2023, global solid-state battery shipments will be about 1GWh, but semi-solid-state batteries will still be the main ones.

That is to say, before all-solid-state batteries can be mass-produced, the incremental route of semi-solid-state batteries will be the first to be commercialized.

Tailan New Energy predicts that since materials and costs will remain high in the short term, some high-end or specific-demand electric vehicles in the automotive field will accept a certain premium and be equipped with (semi) solid-state batteries. By 2030, the penetration rate of solid-state batteries in power batteries will reach 10%, mainly semi-solid-state batteries.

According to data statistics from relevant institutions, China's demand for semi-solid-state batteries in the new energy vehicle field in 2022 will be 0.2GWh, and the penetration rate will be 0.1%. With the continuous development of semi-solid-state battery technology and the increasing demand for new energy vehicles, it is estimated that by 2026, the demand for semi-solid-state batteries will increase to 23.75GWh, and the penetration rate will be close to 5%, with a rapid growth momentum.

It is worth noting that 2024 is also regarded as the first year for the installation of semi-solid-state batteries.

At present, car companies such as NIO, SAIC, and GAC have all released semi-solid-state battery solutions and partially installed them. According to statistics from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, since the beginning of 2024, my country's semi-solid-state battery installation volume in June was 532.9MWh, a month-on-month increase of 10.4%; the cumulative installation volume from January to June was 2154.7 MWh, and the supporting enterprise was Weilan New Energy.

The supply of upstream raw materials is still "difficult", and building an industrial chain will become an advantage

Finally, China's solid-state battery industry (including all-solid-state and semi-solid-state) has obvious advantages over some foreign battery manufacturers, namely: supply chain advantages.

In the liquid battery stage, power batteries faced the problem of insufficient supply of upstream raw materials, which led to rising costs. In the solid-state battery stage, it seems that "history always repeats itself" again.