Full analysis of large cylindrical power batteries: market demand grows steadily, 46 series leads the future

As the name implies, large cylindrical power batteries are batteries that are shaped like large cylinders. This type of battery has high energy density and safety, and can provide electric vehicles with longer driving range and more stable performance. In recent years, with the continuous advancement of battery technology, large cylindrical power batteries have become a new force in the global power battery market.

According to the electrification configuration data of Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute, there are many specifications of cylindrical batteries installed in vehicles around the world. In addition to 18650 and 21700, 32135, 33140, 34200, 40135, 4680, 4695, 46210 and 60130 are all large cylindrical batteries, but most of the large cylindrical batteries used in the domestic market have not yet had a specific mass production time. The 4680 battery, which Tesla first used in overseas markets, has been mass-produced in Q1 2023; in addition, the 4695 battery, which was mass-produced in Q3 2023, will also be adopted by BMW on the next-generation platform. It is reported that the new battery can increase the range of electric vehicles by 30%.

From the perspective of market demand, the demand for large cylindrical power batteries of different specifications in the Chinese market showed a significant trend of change from Q1 2023 to Q1 2024. The demand for 34200 large cylindrical batteries in the market is strong. Although the share has dropped from 57.7% to 49.5%, it still firmly occupies a dominant position; secondly, the market share of 32135 has also shrunk significantly, from 34.3% to 19.1%. 60130 and 4695 batteries have gradually gained market favor, and their market share has increased significantly. Among them, 60130 has increased from 3.8% to 22.9%, showing strong market competitiveness.

The market competition for large cylindrical batteries in China is also becoming increasingly fierce. Ningfu New Energy has significantly increased its market share by virtue of its technical strength and production capacity advantages, from 3.8% in Q1 2023 to 26.4% in Q1 2024; Yiwei Lithium Energy has achieved a leapfrog growth in market share. Although CATL's share has declined slightly, its position as the market leader remains stable, with a market share of 44.4% in Q1 2024; at the same time, Guoxuan High-tech's share has also declined, and although Penghui has grown slowly, it also occupies a place in the market.

In terms of market size and the number of supporting models, China's large cylindrical power battery market shows a steady growth trend. The total installed capacity will reach 8931MWh in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. At the same time, the number of supporting models has also doubled, from 18 in 2022 to 38 in the first quarter of 2024. This shows that more and more car companies are beginning to choose large cylindrical power batteries as a power source to meet the market demand for high-performance, long-range electric vehicles.

In terms of vehicle model matching, many well-known battery suppliers have established close cooperative relationships with automakers. For example, CATL mainly provides large cylindrical batteries for Geely Auto, Changan Automobile and SAIC-GM-Wuling. Specifically, there are Changan Lumin in the A00 market and Geely Geometry E in the A0 market. Ningfu New Energy mainly provides supporting services for SAIC-GM-Wuling's Wuling Hongguang MINIEV, Chery Automobile's Little Ant, QQ Ice Cream and Chery Comfort Home. Guoxuan High-tech's main supporting customers include JAC Motors and BAIC New Energy; EVE Energy mainly supplies Changan Automobile's A-class car Changan Qiyuan A05.

In terms of material selection, at a time when lithium iron phosphate has become the mainstream application in China's power battery market, large cylindrical power batteries are also dominated by lithium iron, and the total installed capacity accounts for 94% of the market. In terms of specific specifications and models, 34200 (34mm in diameter, 200mm in length) has become the most widely used specification and model in the market due to its advantages in range and cost, with an installed capacity of 736MWh in Q1 2024; followed by 60130 with an installed capacity of 340MWh, and 32135 is also a specification model with more market applications. Ternary lithium batteries only account for 6%, and there is currently only one specification, 4695, with an installed capacity of 83MWh in Q1 2024.

With the rapid development of the electric vehicle market, the 46 series large cylindrical power battery technology led by Tesla is becoming a new focus of the domestic power battery industry. Many companies have launched 46 series large cylindrical batteries with high energy density and excellent fast charging rate, such as CATL, EVE Energy, and China Innovation Aviation, and have put cooperative research and development, factory construction, production capacity planning, and mass production on the agenda. This also indicates that the 46 series large cylindrical power batteries will be mass-produced and widely used in the next few years, injecting strong impetus into the popularization and sustainable development of electric vehicles.