The blunt knife of the United States is cutting into the flesh of China’s autonomous driving

This will be the best era for autonomous driving, and it will also be the worst era for autonomous driving.

Small and exquisite unmanned sales trucks are bumping around "unscrupulously" in closed parks; Robotaxi with a "big pot lid" on its head has gradually become a popular sight on all roads; even the slightly bulky unmanned bus , also started to do business and recruit people...

In various scenarios, there are always a group of people working hard to do this "difficult but right thing". When the public sneered at the so-called autonomous driving, they also smiled in agreement, turned around, and continued to immerse themselves in mountains of data and codes.

Yes, it is precisely because of the persistence of these people that the domestic autonomous driving industry is blooming everywhere and a hundred schools of thought are contending.

The right time, the right location, and the right people are all indispensable for the promotion of autonomous driving. Thanks to the inclusiveness of the Chinese market, autonomous driving, which has been developed for many years, has finally bloomed as the "flower of tomorrow" at the dawn of the domestic new energy vehicle trend.

Yes, it is precisely because of the successive opening of high-speed NOA and urban NOA by car companies that more people have seen the feasibility of autonomous driving.

Looking back on the past, from foreign self-driving star startups such as Waymo and Cruise to TuSimple and Pony.ai in the commercial vehicle field, the entire self-driving industry is constantly looking for gaps in development.

But the final results show that whether Robotaxi, Robobus, or Robotruck, it seems difficult to attract the attention of consumers and capital. What replaces them is intelligent assisted driving promoted by new car-making forces like Wei Xiaoli.

Car companies are making efforts and the market is boosting. It was originally a sitcom that everyone was happy with, but because of the sudden "coner case", many unresolved uncertainties were left. Yes, it is the recent big event in the autonomous driving industry - the sudden departure of the soul of Xpeng Intelligent Driving, which has sounded this "wake-up call".

From rumors, to refutation, to confirmation, the departure of the soul of Xiaopeng Zhijia seems a bit unexpected. But judging from the Weibo announcements of He Xiaopeng and Wu Xinzhou, the two parties are getting together and parting easily, and they decided to part ways as early as a year ago.

After joining Xpeng for five years, as the leader of Xpeng Motors' NGP business structure, Wu Xinzhou is definitely the key to Xpeng Motors' "smart" label. But at this moment when Xiaopeng was about to turn around, Wu Xinzhou, the "hero", turned around and left. It was really too sudden.

Is it just because of the pursuit of higher success and fame? Or to return to his family? The real reason behind this may not be as simple as imagined.

01. Not only technology competition, but also talent blockade 

Science and technology have always had national boundaries, and Huawei's clear example is enough to illustrate many issues. As for the resignation of the soul figure of Xiaopeng Zhijia, we might as well speculate on it in a conspiracy theory:

The United States wants to block technical talents on the premise of blocking technology.

As evidence, as early as October last year, the United States introduced restrictive policies targeting China’s semiconductor industry, including:

Restricts U.S. personnel from supporting the “research and development or production” of advanced domestic chips without a license . Violations of the ban will subject relevant individuals to civil and criminal penalties, and may even result in the revocation of U.S. citizenship or permanent resident status.

Please note that the “Americans” mentioned here include U.S. citizens, U.S. green card holders, U.S. asylum seekers, etc.

Moreover, a survey shows that at least 43 "Americans" or permanent residents hold high-level positions such as chairman, president, and vice president in 16 Chinese listed semiconductor companies. It is obvious that these people must make a difficult choice between American citizenship and high-paying jobs in China.

Perhaps influenced by the ban, the soul of Xiaopeng Zhijia made his choice. There may be two reasons why Wu Xinzhou is affected: first, Xiaopeng has begun to develop self-driving chips, and Wu Xinzhou’s role is affected by the ban; second, the US blockade of technical talents has spread to the autonomous driving industry .

In a later interview, Wu Xinzhou personally confirmed Xpeng's self-developed chips, saying: "Xpeng will tell you about the overall longer-term plan at 1024."

So from this point of view, the possibility of reason one is not small.

Judging from the recent attitude of the U.S. government towards Chinese autonomous driving companies, it is not an exaggeration to say that various restrictions in the United States have spread to the field of autonomous driving.

A bipartisan group of four U.S. lawmakers requested an investigation into the popularity of Chinese self-driving car technology in the U.S. based on California road test data, and stated in the submitted document:

"Technology used in autonomous driving, lidar , cameras , artificial intelligence and other advanced sensors and semiconductors, can all be used to collect data about American people and infrastructure, which could be transferred back to China."

In response, U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg stated that Chinese self-driving car suppliers in the U.S. market “have national security concerns.”

It is obvious that the United States wants to "attack" Chinese autonomous driving companies including Baidu Apollo and Pony.ai. As for whether the restrictions on self-driving talents will eventually spread to autonomous driving, according to his usual attitude, the possibility is very high.

02. The best of times, the worst of times

This is by no means an alarmist statement. The game between China and the United States is no longer limited to the blockade of high-tech equipment, but also includes restrictions on technical talents in key fields.

As far as the development of the domestic autonomous driving industry is concerned, this is not good news. What's more, autonomous driving at this time already involves various uncertainties - imperfect laws and regulations; immature technology; incomplete supply chain system; and geopolitical influences.

The most thorny problem is that when we focus on car companies, most of their autonomous driving functions rely on NVIDIA's Orin chip, so that the saying "no Qrin, no smart driving" is widely circulated in the industry.

Huawei's example tells us that if we fall behind, we will be beaten. If NVIDIA restricts the supply of chips, the domestic autonomous driving industry will most likely be unable to make a meal without rice. Previously, Nvidia cut off the supply of A100 and H100 chips, which has already explained the existing problems.

As the saying goes, a gentleman does not stand under a dangerous wall. Of course good products need to be applied, but what needs to be done here is to prepare a Plan B. Fortunately, the domestic general trend and environment have provided strong support, and this place is definitely a fertile ground for the development of autonomous driving.

As far as self-driving algorithm companies are concerned, domestic companies such as Yuanrong Qixing, Qingzhou Zhihang, and Momenta all have their own strengths and advantages; self-driving chip companies such as Horizon, Black Sesame, and Xinchi Technology are competing among a hundred schools of thought. This has set off a challenge to the established giant NVIDIA.

More importantly, domestic car companies and consumers are paying more and more attention to the experience of smart driving. This will further become a key opportunity for the development of autonomous driving in China.

It is not difficult to find that in the involution competition of major car companies, the number of urban NOA openings has become an important indicator. As of this year, Huawei announced that it will promote urban NOA to 45 cities; Xpeng, which is labeled with intelligence, aims to reach 50 cities; NIO, which carries 4 Orin self-driving chips, plans to reach dozens of cities; and Involve The ideal of addiction is to directly increase the number of cities to 100.

Quantitative changes lead to qualitative changes. When car companies, autonomous driving companies, etc. are trying to apply autonomous driving technology as widely as possible; consumer concepts begin to change; technology continues to mature; laws and regulations are increasingly improved; and the supply chain system is slowly being completed. …

There is no doubt that domestic autonomous driving, where everyone is eager to collect fuel, is ushering in the best era.

Even though it is a high-tech technology, autonomous driving still has shortcomings of various kinds; even though it is affected by geopolitics, the United States has once again cut its flesh with a blunt knife and begun to block autonomous driving talents overtly and covertly.

However, with the support of domestic general trends, no one will give up easily, let alone bow to the "worst era".

In fact, starting from Huawei, we have given up our illusions and prepared to fight.

Isn't it?