Crossing the river by touching BYD, is it feasible for GAC Aian to develop self-developed power batteries?

On the one hand, CATL is the dominant player and has absolute advantages. From January to November 2022, its market share was as high as 48.02%; on the other hand, the third largest power battery company including China New Aviation and Sunwanda The second echelon is catching up and actively expanding production capacity with the help of the capital market.

According to the plan, the production capacity of CATL, BYD, China New Aviation, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and Honeycomb Energy will reach 670GWh, 600GWh, 500GWh, 300GWh and 600GWh in 2025. In comparison, in 2025, the production capacity of GAC Aion’s self-developed power batteries The highest production line capacity is only 36GWh, and the gap is still very obvious.

Secondly, self-developed power batteries are inseparable from huge R&D investment. In the first three quarters of 2022, the R&D investments of Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy , Sunwoda and Guoxuan High-tech were 10.577 billion yuan, 1.896 billion yuan, 1.432 billion yuan and 1.039 billion yuan respectively.

From 2019 to 2021, GAC Aion's net losses were 621 million yuan, 688 million yuan and 1.389 billion yuan respectively, with a cumulative loss of 2.698 billion yuan in three years.

Even GAC Group's net profit attributable to the parent company in the first three quarters of 2022 is only 8.063 billion yuan, which is far lower than CATL's R&D investment. How much "spare money" can be spent on R&D, regardless of the GAC Group's It is also a huge pressure issue for GAC Aian.

Finally, self-developed power batteries cannot just rely on spending money; technological innovation is the biggest threshold. At present, it has become a common consensus in the industry to form core competitiveness through battery technology innovation, such as CATL's Kirin battery, BYD's blade battery , Tesla 's 4680 battery, etc.

Objectively speaking, relying on GAC Group, GAC Aion's strength in technological innovation is not weak. For example, it has a new generation of super iron lithium batteries , whose mass energy density has increased by 13.5% and whose volume energy density has increased by 20%. - The low-temperature capacity at 20°C is increased by about 10%, and the power battery life can reach more than 1.5 million kilometers.

In addition, GAC Aian also has ion multi-channel shunting, cathode potential energy buffering, OCV three-dimensional spatial response surface reconstruction and other technologies, which not only improve the fast charging capability and low-temperature performance of the power battery, but also greatly improve the accuracy of the battery management system.

"In the next five years, technological innovation will become a key capability for the survival of power battery companies. The battle for power battery technology will become more in-depth and fierce. There is not much time left for GAC Aian to break out." Cao Tao told "Tanke" "Travel" means.

2. Is it possible to catch up?

In the field of power batteries where there are many experts, is it possible for GAC Aion to catch up with power battery companies?

An investor who has been paying attention to the power battery field for many years told "Tanke Travel" that it is almost impossible for GAC Aian to catch up with power battery companies.

"The cycle of self-developed power batteries is very long. It takes a lot of time from building production lines to ramping up production capacity. It cannot be achieved overnight. It is difficult for self-developed power batteries to take the lead. Even if time passes, GAC Aian's self-developed power batteries can successfully achieve mass production. It is impossible to break the existing market structure, and purchasing from power battery companies is still an important way to obtain power batteries," the investor said.

"In fact, power battery companies are more specialized in manufacturing power batteries. In the short to medium term, GAC Aian's self-developed power batteries will not account for a large proportion, and the production capacity cannot even meet internal supply. GAC Aian's self-developed power batteries will not This means that it can occupy a position in the power battery market. However, GAC Aion's power battery supply structure will be more diversified, thereby further gaining dominance," Cao Tao analyzed.

McKinsey once evaluated whether new energy vehicle companies should develop their own power batteries or outsource them. The conclusion is that when the annual output of new energy vehicle companies exceeds 500,000 vehicles, self-developed power batteries may have a cost advantage.

However, so far, the only new energy vehicle companies with annual output of new energy vehicles reaching more than 500,000 units are Tesla and BYD.

In fact, GAC Aian has not fully bet on self-developed power batteries. According to the plan, GAC Aian will adopt a "three-legged walking" model in the supply of power batteries, which are selective outsourcing, joint venture and cooperative production, and Self-study.

Taking into account the opinions of all parties and GAC Aon's plan, unless it can achieve revolutionary innovation in power battery technology and expand its production capacity on a large scale, it will be difficult for GAC Aon to achieve the same competitiveness as BYD. to catch up.

At this stage, compared with self-developed power batteries, deep binding with power battery companies through equity participation or joint venture building seems to be more in line with the actual situation of new energy vehicle companies.

For example, Mercedes-Benz Group invested 905 million yuan to invest in Funeng Technology and signed a strategic supply agreement; Xinwangda received joint investment from SAIC Group, Guangzhou Automobile Group and "Wei Xiaoli"; Guangzhou Automobile Group and CATL Jointly invested 4.226 billion yuan to establish Times GAC Power Battery Co., Ltd. and so on.

"However, in the future, self-research and self-production of core supply chains may become the main theme of competition among new energy vehicle companies. GAC Aion has undoubtedly sounded the clarion call for new energy vehicle companies to integrate supply chains." Cao Tao said.