The cold winter after the boom of autonomous driving

The transformation of the automobile industry is undoubtedly one of the hottest topics in the technology industry in recent years. Smart cars are entering the market on a large scale, the autonomous driving industry has become a "hot topic", and a marathon-like long-distance race has already begun.

There are always people chasing the trend of an era, but people's expectations may not always be the same. Some people choose to continue to move forward on one road, while others choose to stop here or go astray. The front is always unknown. No matter how busy you are, you should occasionally stop, take a look and think about it. Only in this way can you avoid the trap of blindly moving forward.

▌Autonomous driving, hot?

Regarding the description of the degree of automobile intelligence, there are currently two sets of classification standards commonly used in the industry, namely the standards set by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and the standards set by the Society of Automated Engineers (SAE International). Among them, SAE International's standards are more widely adopted, and are formulated based on the design concept of "who is doing it, what is being done".

According to SAE International standards, autonomous driving is divided into six different levels, among which L0 is manual driving, where the human driver has full authority to drive the vehicle; L1 is assisted driving, where the vehicle provides driving for one of the steering wheel and acceleration and deceleration operations, and the human driver The driver is responsible for the rest of the driving actions; L2 is partially automated driving, where the vehicle provides driving for multiple operations on the steering wheel and acceleration and deceleration, and the human driver is responsible for the rest of the driving actions;

L3 is conditional autonomous driving, where the vehicle completes most of the driving actions, and the human driver needs to stay focused in case of emergency; L4 is highly automated driving, where the vehicle completes all driving operations, and the human driver does not need to stay focused , but limited to road and environmental conditions; L5 is fully autonomous driving, where the vehicle completes all driving operations and the human driver does not need to maintain concentration.

Although autonomous driving has only become popular in recent years, the history of autonomous driving began in 1925 with the debut of the "American Miracle" wireless remote control car, which was the first documented autonomous vehicle in human history. When the time came to 2009, Google started a research and development boom in autonomous driving technology, and the prospect of autonomous driving began to attract public attention.

As one of the key technologies for the future development of automobiles, autonomous driving has become an area of ​​focus for many companies. These companies are not limited to car companies, but also more Internet giants are involved. In order to seize the latest technological changes, more and more companies have begun to accelerate the pace of autonomous driving research in the past decade.

In October 2015, Tesla launched the semi-autonomous driving system Autopilot, which was the first commercially available autonomous driving technology; in 2016, General Motors acquired Cruise Automation, an autonomous driving technology startup, and traditional car companies are gradually entering autonomous driving. field……

While foreign autonomous driving is advancing, domestic research on autonomous driving is also continuing to advance. In 2013, Baidu’s self-driving project was launched at Baidu Research Institute; in 2018, Alibaba officially announced the layout of its self-driving business, aiming to create a smart logistics and transportation platform... More and more domestic non-car manufacturers are entering the field of self-driving , consistent with foreign forms, Internet companies bring more technical support.

In the first half of this year, my country's new car market penetration rate for L2 assisted driving passenger cars increased to 30%. In the past 2021, Beijing became the first city in China to explicitly recognize the commercialization pilot of autonomous driving Robotaxi. The Beijing high-level autonomous driving demonstration zone with the entire Beijing Economic Development Zone as the core is the world's first high-level network-connected cloud control Autonomous driving demonstration area.

The past ten years have been a booming decade for autonomous driving. But behind the excitement is the implementation of technology and commercialization. When the technology and market explode, the cold winter of autonomous driving is approaching.

▌Autonomous driving, is it cold?

In recent months, things about autonomous driving seem to have reached a low ebb with the advent of winter.

On October 27, autonomous driving startup Argo AI announced the end of seven years of operations. This star self-driving company, which aims at L4 self-driving mode and has received cash investments of US$1 billion each from Ford and Volkswagen, has also come to an end at the end of 2022.

Coincidentally, also in October, Amazon announced that it would stop developing the "autonomous delivery vehicle" project Scout. As one of the first companies in the world to deploy autonomous delivery services, Amazon explained the discontinuation of the Scout project this way: "Unmanned delivery vehicles do not match the needs of consumers. Although they provide a unique door-to-door delivery experience, in some aspects It is always difficult to meet the needs and pain points of users.”

Motional, the autonomous driving technology joint venture between Hyundai Motor and Aptiv, also laid off employees on November 30; similarly, autonomous delivery vehicle manufacturer Nuro also announced 20% layoffs, affecting about 300 employees; the US autonomous truck company Embark One year after it went public, the stock price plummeted by about 98%, and nearly $5 billion in market value evaporated...

Many things will happen in 2022, and all signs indicate that autonomous driving is beginning to cool down. The night is inevitably dark, but is there definitely light ahead of autonomous driving? Autonomous driving has gradually become a game of capital. When the enthusiasm of capital is gone and when investors’ goals are delayed, the arrival of the cold winter of autonomous driving becomes inevitable.

It is difficult for us to deny the future value of autonomous driving, but in the process of commercialization of autonomous driving, costs and funds have become constraints, and investors do not want to see investments without returns. The realization of technological capabilities lags behind exaggerated expectations, and large investments are unable to receive adequate returns. It seems natural for capital to lose confidence.

Nothing can grow overnight, and the boom in autonomous driving will inevitably usher in a period of downturn. The commercialization of autonomous driving has just begun. Instead of aiming high and reaching unattainable goals, it seems that capital has begun to move down the road.

In the current environment, L4 level autonomous driving seems to have become an insurmountable gap. But facing a cold winter does not mean there is no progress. The times are advancing, and technology is also advancing. The generalization ability of the autonomous driving technology behind it is also constantly improving. Currently, more car companies are choosing L2 and L3 level autonomous driving as a breakthrough. However, many companies dormant in the cold winter are still coveting the irresistible temptation of L4.

There is no winter that is insurmountable, and there is no spring that will not come.

There are too few people or companies who can accurately grasp every development point, but the arrival of the low period will dissuade many speculators who come here. We don’t know how much the survivors who survive the cold winter will gain, and how long this cold winter will last cannot be predicted. What we can know is that the competition about autonomous driving and automobile intelligence will definitely continue.

▌Conclusion

Say goodbye to fireworks every year. We hope to see different fireworks every year, but there are always people who want to experience the darkness after the fireworks.

Whether autonomous driving is hot or at its trough, some people will always be left behind by the times. Instead of looking up at the stars, it is better to keep our feet on the ground.

The low tide has arrived, and the industry reshuffle accompanying the two-level differentiation pattern has long been destined. We will wait and see where this marathon on autonomous driving will go in the future.