From MCU to IGBT, automotive chips are in structural shortage

The latest data from automotive industry analysis company AFS shows that due to chip shortages, the global automotive market has reduced production by about 2.8102 million vehicles this year. AFS predicts that by the end of this year, global automakers will reduce production by 3.6806 million vehicles.

In the past two years, the global chip shortage caught everyone off guard, and the most affected were automotive chips, causing major automakers to fall into a situation of "stopping production and waiting for chips" and releasing news of production cuts. Recently, the demand for consumer electronics chips has dropped significantly, and there has been a phenomenon of production cuts and order cuts. Major chip manufacturers have also shifted their production capacity to more popular automotive chips, and more manufacturers have joined the ranks of automotive chip production, so there is news that "automotive chips are no longer in short supply." However, according to reporters, only some automotive chips have been alleviated, and the entire automotive chip market is shifting towards a structural shortage. Among them, the most in-demand, even called the "throat" of automobile production, is the IGBT power chip.

Large demand, difficult to expand production, long cycle, automotive IGBT shortage

It is understood that although the production and sales of automobiles have fallen year-on-year, the sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly year-on-year. As for the demand for chips, new energy vehicles use much more than traditional fuel vehicles, which is one of the reasons why the demand for automotive chips does not match the trend of automobile production.

Compared with consumer-grade and industrial-grade products, automotive-grade chips have high requirements for safety and stability, long R&D cycles, high technical barriers, and large capital investments. Therefore, the development of automotive-grade chips faces more challenges. Automotive chips can be divided into MCU, AI chips, IGBT, analog chips, sensors, memory and other types. The MCU, which was previously the most in short supply, has been alleviated due to the active expansion of major manufacturers. Now the main cause of chip shortage has also been replaced by IGBT. Bu Rixin, general manager of Chuangdao Investment Consulting, said in an interview with a reporter from China Electronics News that the electrical characteristics of new energy vehicles are more obvious, and more power devices are needed, represented by IGBT and silicon carbide power devices, which play a very core role.

IGBT refers to the insulated gate bipolar transistor chip, which is the most mature and widely used power device among the current high-power switching components. It has the advantages of both MOSFET's high input impedance and GTR's low on-state voltage drop. It has small driving power and low saturation voltage drop. It is the core device for energy conversion and transmission and is called the "CPU of electronic power devices". It has huge development potential.

Chi Xiannian, senior consultant at the Integrated Circuit Center of CCID Consulting, said that due to the development of new energy vehicles and intelligent vehicles, the automotive chip market has maintained strong demand in the past two years. Among them, IGBT, as a core component of new energy vehicles, is one of the most scarce products.

Even before, some car companies said that how many cars can be produced depends mainly on the supply of IGBT power chips. The delivery cycle of some IGBT power chips has been as long as 50 weeks or more. Zhang Binlei, senior analyst at CoreMotion Research, told the reporter of China Electronics News that there are two main reasons: First, demand has increased significantly. The trend of automobile electrification is accelerating, and the demand for automotive power devices for charging and discharging modules and batteries, electronic control, and electric drive systems has grown rapidly, exceeding other chip types. Second, it is difficult to expand the production of automotive power devices and the cycle is long. The process of automotive power devices is relatively backward, usually with a process of more than 1μm, and most chips of this process are produced on 8-inch lines. At present, the expansion or construction of 8-inch lines faces some embarrassing problems. The production efficiency, cost, and degree of automation are far less than those of 12-inch lines. Therefore, both wafer fabs and equipment manufacturers are reluctant to invest too many resources in 8 inches. Even wafer companies, considering the possible product portfolio and development space in the future, would rather invest more funds to build more advanced 12-inch wafer lines.

Reasonable allocation of production capacity and supplementation of silicon carbide devices are the correct solution

It is reported that although major manufacturers are actively expanding the production of power semiconductors, the current situation remains severe. Zhang Binlei pointed out that the reasons why IGBT has not yet resumed its normal delivery cycle are relatively complicated. There are technical reasons and strategic reasons. From a technical perspective, production expansion is still on the way. First of all, it takes about 3 years from project evaluation, implementation, plant construction, equipment procurement to production line start-up and production operation, and the equipment delivery period in the past two years has been as long as half a year to one year; secondly, automotive-grade chip certification work takes at least 2 years. At the strategic level, several major power device leaders such as Infineon, ST, and Renesas are very cautious in expanding production, and the expansion efforts and execution have not kept up with demand growth.

Allocation of existing production capacity is a quick and feasible method, but for manufacturing lines that are already fully operational, product types will not be easily changed. At the same time, power devices are generally considered to have low gross margins. Once demand stabilizes and prices fall, the wafer line will have to change product types. Therefore, the wafer line has no particular motivation to transfer existing production capacity to power devices. However, the production line of consumer electronic power devices can be certified by automotive regulations and improve chip technology to alleviate the shortage of automotive power devices.

Chi Xiannian predicts that the current shortage of power devices is expected to continue until the end of 2023, because with the expansion of new production lines and the reduction in demand for new energy vehicles, the demand for power devices will reach a relatively stable level. In addition, as the technology of silicon carbide power semiconductors matures and is successfully put into production, it will also alleviate the shortage of power semiconductors to a certain extent.

Zhang Binlei also believes that due to the impact of the epidemic and the international cooperation environment, the shortage of automotive power devices will continue for some time, expected to be between half a year and a year, mainly affected by the dual factors of expansion and deployment. Silicon carbide has a strong alternative to silicon-based power devices, but the current price is still higher, the process is still unstable, and the supply is small, far below demand. Therefore, silicon carbide has only a very limited effect on alleviating the shortage of power devices.

Bu Rixin is very optimistic about silicon carbide power devices. He believes that silicon carbide power devices will indeed have a great place in new energy vehicles. With the gradual rise of new silicon carbide forces, it will also effectively alleviate the problem of insufficient supply of automotive-grade power devices.