Some speculations about "Apple Car"

A few days ago, IHS Markit released a report titled "Imagining the 'Apple Car'". Some of the speculations about the components and technologies of the "Apple Car" are actually very interesting. The entire article is mainly divided into:

· Autopilot

Connected systems applications and V2X

Battery system

Body structure and materials

Semiconductors

· software

Interactive reality and AR HUD

In these aspects, since Apple has not officially stated the progress of the evaluation of the car, and the confidentiality of Apple's car is very strong, there are too many unknowns about the production location, potential partners and expected output of all of this. Therefore, it is necessary for us to make some arrangements in advance for the speculation or information updates here.

Figure 1 Timeline of Apple Car

Part 1: Will Apple Car be mass-produced?

1) Will the Apple Car go into production?

Historically, Apple has invested resources in exploring many cross-border fields, but for Apple, "creating revolutionary products and becoming outstanding" itself implies very high standards, which has led Apple to constantly give up and decide to terminate the development/release of some products in its forward-looking exploration - it will only release them after it is sure of success. In fact, Apple has been exploring the automotive field since 2014, and coupled with its exploration of automotive entertainment systems, from a strategic perspective, Apple's entry into the automotive industry has strategic value. For an "aircraft carrier" with revenue exceeding US$300 billion, it may be difficult to achieve meaningful growth in the traditional consumer electronics field.

This is how I personally see it: the automotive industry is actually the backbone of every industrial country in the world. If Apple enters this industry, it may also collaborate with European or Japanese auto companies - using their stable manufacturing personnel. Of course, the original auto companies may then become OEM factories.

2) What will the Apple Car look like?

Judging from Apple's tone, if it is aimed at family cars, this car may be a little bigger than Model Y and comparable to Model X. As for a smaller size, it is unlikely at the beginning. Apple's past successful image is centered on providing the best user experience. Its product design has a user-friendly and simple interface. In some cases, when it expands the boundaries in design or performance, it will bring convenience to consumers.

Judging from Apple's car patents and the results of California's autonomous driving tests, if the Apple car is finally launched, it may have some breakthroughs in intelligence, especially autonomous driving, and some innovations in interior design and functions. According to media reports, Apple's car will debut in 2024. Considering the time constraints related to supply chain, engineering design and manufacturing cycle, this time window is relatively tight.

3) How much influence will Apple have on the entire automotive industry chain?

If Apple chooses to cooperate with traditional automakers (depending on the willingness of both parties), it can accelerate the mass production of Apple cars, focus on customer-oriented functions and services, and shorten the time to market. Apple needs to strictly control the development and integration of hardware and software, so it is likely to outsource key components to partners such as Magna and/or LG.

Part 2: Technical Concepts

1) Autonomous driving

The plan to launch L4 self-driving cars is a gamble. First of all, there is uncertainty in regulatory supervision, and the transportation of passengers requires further permission from the regulatory authorities. The MaaS business model based on autonomous driving can support Apple's differentiation and realize Apple's focus on content and user experience. It is highly likely that Apple will launch a more advanced automatic assisted driving and allow deep interaction in the cockpit.

Note: The core component of Apple Car is the development of a huge automatic assisted driving system. This must be a very core embedded design, which is about thinking about how to better drive the vehicle automatically. I personally think this is the most interesting part.

Figure 2 Apple has been preparing its autonomous driving technology for a long time

2) Connected Vehicle System - Mobile Application and V2X

Apple's application ecosystem and cloud platform are also the core elements of Apple cars, so embedding its app store in the car is inevitable. Therefore, it is a challenge to provide a developer-friendly framework and provide certification for in-car applications.

Apple is likely developing V2X as a core element, one of the most active areas of Apple patents, covering navigation interfaces, messaging, resource selection, and even communicating using non-standard road signs.

Figure 3 The car networking system is the basic

3) Battery system, materials and body structure

From previous revelations, Apple is inclined to build around lithium iron phosphate batteries and build a battery system by defining its own cells. However, there is no special information to support the disclosure of this information. China, Japan and South Korea have some subcontracts to do some conceptual design. There is still a possibility that LG Magna e-Powertrain will be used in the future. As for the body materials, including overall safety, whether Apple can move from the design of mobile phones to the large car, we will have to wait and see.

Figure 4 Battery system and vehicle body material usage

4) Chip and software

Another outstanding advantage of Apple is that it can design its own chips. It is likely that Apple can use its existing IP catalog to develop automotive-specific SoCs around the needs of cockpit and autonomous driving, while developing dedicated IP for automotive-specific process nodes.

The key to Apple's design philosophy is to achieve tight integration of hardware, software and services, with a strong emphasis on internal software capabilities. This is a source of advantage for all Apple products, and it will also be one of the biggest selling points in its automotive products. Apple's software strategy in the automotive field is expected to include deeper stack control than most other automakers, including operating systems and middleware, as well as advanced analytics and connectivity capabilities.

Note: The computing power competition in the cockpit has just begun. After a large number of functions are integrated, it is foreseeable that the computing power demand of mobile phones will not be as strong as that of cars due to power consumption limitations. Cars will become the consumer product with the greatest demand for computing power.

Figure 5 Apple's software and chips

5) UI/UX-Augmented Reality-Head-Up Display

Apple is likely to adopt a simple, virtual user interface/experience design to attract consumers, which includes the reconstruction of the cockpit interaction (dashboard, center console, steering wheel). Since Apple has a large number of patents in augmented reality head-up display screens, it is very likely that it will be equipped with an augmented reality head-up display screen, thus creating a simple user interface without a dashboard.

Note: Apple's mobile phones, Apple Watch and other devices can interact with cars all at once.

Figure 6 Concept of interaction

summary:

There is very little accurate information disclosed about Apple Car, and IHS Markit's guess is just a guess. However, this is the first piece of speculation about Apple Car by a consulting agency. Readers can read the original article when they have time. These speculations mainly focus on the comparative advantages of Apple Car, but actually ignore the endogenous innovation.