The new energy industry is in short supply rather than in excess and will grow explosively in the next five years

The new energy industry is in short supply rather than in excess and will grow explosively in the next five years

Is the new energy industry in oversupply?

As the National Development and Reform Commission has included six major industries, namely steel, cement, flat glass, coal chemical industry, polysilicon and wind power equipment, in the key regulation catalogue, the question of whether the new energy industry is oversupplied is triggering heated discussions. The diametrically opposed judgments of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Ministry of Science and Technology have become one of the focal points of the discussion.

Recently, our reporter interviewed relevant experts from the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology and other departments on whether there is "oversupply" or not.

NDRC: China's overcapacity is comprehensive

The contradiction of overcapacity has been around for a long time. Ma Xiaohe, deputy director of the Macroeconomic Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, said in an interview with reporters recently that it is not only the six industries mentioned above that have overcapacity. China's overcapacity is comprehensive, and all industries and related industries are overcapacitated, such as clothing, shoes and hats, mobile phones, color TVs, refrigerators, washing machines, motorcycles, etc.

"This is mainly because China's industries are export-oriented, with a degree of external dependence of over 60%. Especially with the outbreak of the financial crisis, external demand has dropped sharply, and exports have even shown negative growth, which has invisibly greatly increased domestic pressure. As the domestic market cannot consume the output, the problem of overcapacity has become prominent," said Ma Xiaohe.

There is no doubt that adjustments and restrictions on overcapacity traditional industries such as steel and cement are timely and necessary.

However, after a survey by experts from the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development Strategy, they believe that the new energy industry has just started. In the long run, the new energy industry is not a problem of oversupply, but rather a problem of far from being sufficient. The market demand for the new energy industry will experience explosive growth in the next 3-5 years.

Ministry of Science and Technology survey: Polysilicon gap of 20,000 tons

Polysilicon is the most basic raw material for the semiconductor industry, information industry and solar photovoltaic power generation industry. In recent years, with the rapid development of the global solar photovoltaic industry, the global crystalline silicon market has experienced explosive growth. However, since last year, due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the demand for solar cells abroad has shrunk severely, and the price of polysilicon has fallen sharply, which has directly affected the development of my country's polysilicon industry.

So, is there really an oversupply of polysilicon?

In order to find out the photovoltaic production capacity, the research team of the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development Strategy recently conducted a survey on domestic wind power and polysilicon manufacturers. It concluded that polysilicon and wind power, two new energy industries, should still be vigorously and rapidly developed. The current problem is how to promote the development of these two industries better and faster, rather than simply suppressing them.

Liu Feng, director of the Institute of Industry at the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development Strategy, who led the survey, said: "Although my country's crystalline silicon production capacity has expanded rapidly, the crystalline silicon industry has always been in short supply due to construction cycles and market fluctuations. At present, there is still a gap in my country's actual demand, and polysilicon still needs to be imported."

Liu Feng told reporters that after a series of investigations, they learned that in 2008, my country's polysilicon production was 4,500 tons, and the demand for polysilicon exceeded 20,000 tons, which means that about 3/4 of the demand still needs to be met by imports. If the domestic photovoltaic cell production in 2009 remains at the level of 2008 (2,300 megawatts), according to the industry average of 12 tons of crystalline silicon per megawatt photovoltaic cell, a total of 28,000 tons of polysilicon will be needed. It is estimated that the domestic polysilicon production in 2009 may exceed 10,000 tons, which means that at least nearly 20,000 tons of polysilicon will be imported in 2009 to meet domestic production needs.

"Since polysilicon is a high-energy-consuming and high-pollution product, it should be regulated under the national energy-saving and emission-reduction policy. However, macroeconomic regulation should be based on promoting technological upgrading in the industry, otherwise it will have a suppressive effect on private investment." Liu Feng reminded reporters that whether polysilicon is in excess should be analyzed from the perspective of the overall direction of energy development and the layout of the entire industrial chain. It should be viewed from a developmental and more macro perspective, rather than a relatively static perspective.

There is no doubt that the solar photovoltaic industry is an important direction for my country to develop new energy, promote economic structure adjustment, and cultivate strategic emerging industries. At present, this industry is in an important period of development.

"The development of the solar photovoltaic industry reflects the phased characteristics of the early stages of development of emerging industries. It is a problem in development that can only be solved through development. We should scientifically grasp the development laws of the crystalline silicon industry, focus on solving the problems facing development, and promote better and faster development of the solar photovoltaic industry, rather than restricting it." Wang Yuan, executive vice president of the Chinese Academy of Science and Technology Development and Strategy, told reporters.

Wind power overcapacity 'exaggerated'

According to official statistics, about 30% of the country's wind power stations are "basking in the sun" and are not operating.

"It depends on how you understand this question. Some researchers understand 'overcapacity' as the sum of existing production capacity, under-construction production capacity and planned production capacity being greater than the sum of actual consumption capacity, which is overcapacity. We believe that in the wind power industry, planned production capacity (including under-construction production capacity) is all unrealized production capacity. Even if it is fully built, there will be a low production period of 1-2 years. If all of these are included in the actual production capacity, it will undoubtedly exaggerate the imbalance between supply and demand in the market." said Dr. Chen Zhi, who participated in the research.

The Chinese Academy of Science and Technology for Development Strategy recently conducted a survey and learned that in the field of wind turbines in my country, the first echelon is Sinovel, Goldwind and Dongfang Electric, which have had mass production capabilities a few years ago. The second echelon is less than 10 companies such as Shanghai Electric, Mingyang, and Xiangdian, which have entered the mass production stage since 2008. The third echelon includes more than 20 companies such as Huachuang and Hanwei, which have just produced prototypes or are conducting small-scale trial production. Several companies in the fourth echelon have just entered the industry and have not yet launched products. In addition, some companies have also proposed wind turbine manufacturing plans, but have not yet taken actual action. At present, the companies that really have production capacity are the first two echelons, among which the three companies in the first echelon are the main ones.

"Therefore, by including possible or planned production capacity in actual production capacity, the estimate of 'overcapacity' is obviously exaggerated," said Dr. Chen Zhi.

Wind energy is a possible development direction for the future. In Liu Feng's opinion, there is a certain amount of wind energy surplus at present, mainly due to the lack of coordination between power grid construction and wind farm construction, which has caused some wind farms to be unable to be connected to the grid in time or their output is limited after being connected to the grid. The current dispatching agencies also lack dispatching experience and technical means for wind farms.

"It's like producing products but not being able to sell them. If no one buys them, they become surplus. The State Grid must first allow them to be connected to the internet before they can be sold online," Liu Feng told reporters.

At present, power grid bottleneck has become a prominent problem in the development of new energy.

"The current 'overcapacity' in emerging industries represented by wind and solar energy is actually a typical stage-specific and bottleneck-related overcapacity. If we want to make the new energy industry move forward, the top priority is to quickly take the foot behind us, rather than taking the foot back. We must improve the power grid rather than suppress wind energy. We must not give up the opportunity to drive future development and seize the commanding heights of global competition because of fear of choking." Wang Yuan further emphasized.