The road to revival of the Microsoft empire

24 years ago, Wei Wuxian, who had extraordinary bones and extraordinary talents, developed peerless martial arts, and his martial arts reached the top of the Langya Ranking at the age of 25. Ping Wangji, who also had the physique of a martial arts prodigy and was one year younger than him, was far behind him in combat prowess at that time.

However, Wei Wuxian, who has entered middle age, is deeply closed-minded and self-contained, unaware that the world has changed. As a result, not only did he give up the top spot, but he was also crushed by fellow members Gu Wuji, Ya Buhui, and Lian Hu Chong. Over the years, the one ranked No. 1 is Ping Wangji, who has a deep connection with Wei Wuxian.

Since then, Wei Wuxian has learned lessons, worked hard to make up for his shortcomings, and once again reached the top two on the Langya Ranking. At first, he fought back and forth with Ping Wangji, who was ranked first, for dozens of rounds, and most of the time he was at a disadvantage. It wasn't until later that he accidentally understood the Samadhi of the "Future Sutra", and Wei Wuxian opened up the two channels of Ren and Du, activated the "God Blocks and Kills God" mode, and regained the Top 1 position in the combat power list...

When you first heard this plot, did you think it was a cool novel in the Rebirth series? In fact, it is a cool article.

But if "Jianghu" is regarded as an allusion to the technology circle, then the male protagonist can really find the prototype in reality, and it is Microsoft .

Microsoft is a legend among "Silicon Valley legends" - even though it is not headquartered in Silicon Valley.

Jack Ma once set a vision for Alibaba to "live for 102 years." He hoped that its life cycle would span three centuries ( 1999 to 2101 ) .

有时候，掌舵者的性格能决定企业的命运。

鲍尔默掌舵微软时， Windows 的市场份额几乎是垄断级的，市场上只要卖出一部 PC 电脑，基本上都得给微软交「过 （授） 路 （权） 费」。仅凭这点，微软就能每年坐收数百亿营收。

现实一再证明：在一个时代获得成功的人以往的成功经验，也许是他在下一个时代再获得成功的障碍——因为他会陷入路径依赖，不肯再开新路。

鲍尔默以为靠着 Windows 就能 Win （稳赢） ，殊不知时代已经变了，用户上网冲浪工具更多地从 PC 转变为 iPhone 和安卓手机， PC 端操作系统市场逐渐见顶。

等到鲍尔默后知后觉时，为时已晚，微软已接连错过搜索引擎、智能手机、社交网络等风口，沦为风口绝缘体式的存在。

虽然做出了收购诺基亚、推出 Windows Phone 、涉足社交业务等尝试，但基本都以烧钱打水漂告终。

▲2017年7月，微软方面停止对Windows Phone 8.1的主流支持服务，这被视作宣告了Windows Phone的寿终正寝。

整体上，保守、封闭、自大、擅内斗，是鲍尔默时期的微软给人常见的外部印象。

说其保守，是因微软几乎错过了移动互联网时代，只有些微创新 + 亦步亦趋：苹果推 iPod ，微软跟着推 Zune ；苹果推 iPad ，微软跟着推 Sruface 平板；苹果推 iOS 设备，微软跟着推 Windows Phone 。

说其封闭，是因微软当时是开源的坚决反对者。鲍尔默还出于担心影响 PC 端出货量的顾虑，坚决反对推出移动版 Office.

说其自大，是因微软彼时有强烈的「企业自豪感」，鲍尔默曾数次嘲笑乔布斯和苹果—— 2007 年初代 iPhone 推出时，鲍尔默嘲笑「 iPhone 想进占市场根本没戏，也许它们能挣点小钱」， 2009 年又称 iPhone 不算是 Windows Mobile 的对手、不具备微软控制的手机操作同日而语的潜力。

微软三代目萨提亚·纳德拉就说到：「微软内部有个坏习惯，那就是人们不会推动自己继续前进，因为我们对曾经所取得的成功感到自满。我们现在正在学习如何忘记过去的成就。」

说其擅长内斗，是因微软那时候山头主义极其严重。 网上曾经有一组硅谷大公司的组织结构图十分流行：亚马逊组织严密而有序、谷歌结构清晰而复杂、 Facebook 架构分散而扁平、微软则是山头主义横行。

▲当时微软是出了名的「内斗大厂」。

当时很多人已经认定，被鲍尔默带入死胡同的微软，就是下一个柯达和诺基亚。

但到了 第三任 CEO 纳德拉 上任后，微软很快开启了复兴之路。

在当下，不少人复盘微软「中兴」原因时会总结出一二三四五等若干个理由来，在我看来，首要在「人」——纳德拉虽然刚被 CNN Business 评为 2023 年度最佳 CEO ，但依旧是过去10年最被低估的企业 CEO 。

纳德拉接手微软时，微软是个掉队者，公司内部也因内斗严重人心惶惶。纳德拉能上位，很重要一点就是，他不站队、只干事，是微软罕见的「能把烂事儿做好，同时还不会让其他人生气」的人。

纳德拉能带着微软重回巅峰吗？当时谁也没谱。

可纳德拉给出的答案是， 仅用 5 年时间，就带着微软重返巅峰 ； 用约 10 年时间，带着微软重回全球 市值 Top.1 企业的位置。

在 5 年间，微软市值相继赶超亚马逊、谷歌等，等到 2018 年底，市值一度超过苹果。

在 2019 年 6 月、 2021 年 6 月、 2024 年 1 月，微软市值分别破 1 万亿美元、 2 万亿美元和超过苹果重登王座。

▲今年1月，微软市值久违地再度超过苹果，成为全球市值最高企业。

奈飞创始人里德·黑斯廷斯就曾感慨道：「在科技行业的历史上，我们从未见过其他的软件企业在经历了痛苦的挫败之后，还能恢复得如此之好。」

作为微软最大个人股东的鲍尔默，还因此躺赚，身价暴涨至 1300 多亿美元。

那，微软到底做对了什么？纳德拉为什么能 Make 微软 Great Again ？

微软的复兴秘诀，就藏在了纳德拉身上的个性特质中：他谦逊、务实，完全站在了自大、躁动的对面。

纳德拉从来不渲染「 Amazing ！我的 Microsoft 」。即便市值再度登顶后，在微软总部接受彭博商业周刊采访时，他都直言「如果有人为了我们的市值而庆祝，我会感到恶心。」坚称公司市值「没有任何意义」。认为任何形式的庆祝，都是「走向没落的开始」。近乎冷静到可怕。

微软高管 谢莉 · 布兰斯坦 就表示，纳德拉最与众不同的地方，在于他「从来没有过狂妄自大」。

虽然跟亚马逊、谷歌、脸书等有业务竞争，但纳德拉治下的微软也从未渲染过敌对性口号，而是努力在竞合关系中做大自身。

够谦逊、够务实，才会向着革新与开放而行。而革新与开放，是纳德拉推动微软复兴的关键所在。

就革新来说，微软以往的增长引擎长期依赖于 Windows 和 Office 两大业务，现在这两个业务固然还在，但微软早就有了两个新支柱：云计算； AI 。

十年前，微软几乎所有业务都会围绕最核心的 Windows 业务转，新产品的命名形式通常也是「 Windows+X 」，如手机叫 Windows Phone ，云业务叫 Windows Azure 。毕竟， Windows 就是微软最大的「摇钱树」。

纳德拉上任后，却对微软进行了「系统重置」：他用云业务重塑微软，并发力 AI ，还推动「去 Windows 化」。

Driven by Nadella, Microsoft ushered in a clear strategic shift after 2014. The core business focus became "cloud, cloud, cloud." Microsoft also changed from a software giant to a leading computing engine enterprise . In 2018 , Microsoft directly terminated the previous core Windows department and split it into two teams, Azure and Office .

Thanks to its "cloud first" strategy and heavy investment, Microsoft's cloud services are gaining momentum. Whether it is the continuous upgrade of its cloud service platform Azure or the transformation of Office into a productivity software suite after being loaded with cloud services, its "cloud genes" are constantly highlighted.

In the third quarter of 2023 , Microsoft's global cloud service market share increased to 23% . Although it is still far behind Amazon, the leader in the cloud service market, it has secured second place, and now the advantages of intelligent cloud are constantly emerging.

AI is also an important focus of Microsoft. Speaking of this, the first thing many people think of is "Microsoft Xiaoice".

But Microsoft’s AI is far more than just Xiaoice. As early as 2016 , Microsoft Research Asia first proposed the ResNet structure for image recognition, with a recognition rate of more than 90% ; in 2017 , Microsoft improved the neural network acoustics and language model of the speech recognition system, reducing the error rate to 5.1% … ...It’s just that the “friendly business” Google is so dazzling that it has been covered up by the “frequency domain masking effect”.

Of course, Nadella also made a big bet on the MR headset HoloLens and burned money on the gaming platform Xbox . It was considered a bet on the metaverse and games, but he did not get the expected returns. But innovation does not exclude trial and error. It can make corrections and adjustments in a timely manner based on feedback. Those truly rigid companies often lack the ability to correct errors.

In terms of openness , whether it is cooperating more with Apple, Amazon, Google, etc., moving towards open source, or investing in OpenAI, these are all manifestations of Microsoft's open mentality.

Microsoft has previously been "sworn enemies" with Apple, Amazon, Google, etc. Under the "Windows first" strategy, Microsoft has been reluctant to launch Office versions for iOS and Android systems.

However, Nadella changed his attitude of decoupling and gave up Nokia, which Ballmer spent 7.8 billion US dollars to acquire. He avoided direct competition with Apple and Google in the field of mobile phones and instead launched Office adapted to iOS and Android systems . This resulted in the "porting" of iOS and Android applications to the Windows platform.

Marc Benioff , founder and CEO of the business software giant Salesforce , said: "Microsoft has paid a heavy price for its arrogance. After Nadella took the helm, Microsoft has become more open when it comes to cooperation with other companies. "

Microsoft has been an opponent of the open source movement before - "Fortune" magazine once mentioned that Nat Friedman and Miguel de Icaza, the "golden boys" of the Silicon Valley open source movement, once suggested to Microsoft that Windows and the Internet Programs such as Explorer were improved through open source, but were rejected by Microsoft. They later established the Xamarin company to challenge Microsoft.

By February 2016, Nadella brought Xararin under Microsoft. Nat Friedman said: This is incredible, "Microsoft has been an opponent of open source for a long time, and now, I want to say that among many large technology companies, Microsoft is the pioneer of change. . This is a huge change."

Microsoft's open attitude is also reflected in the development of AI : it not only develops AI itself , but also "empowers" OpenAI . Relying on an open mind, Microsoft has overtaken Google's competition in the AI ​​field and has become the biggest winner in this round of technology explosion. Microsoft Copilot is now directly leading the process of commercial application of generative AI .

▲ Nadella, who led Microsoft to achieve renaissance, is definitely the most undervalued technology company CEO in the past 10 years.

Although the main businesses still face strong opponents, including Amazon (cloud, intelligent voice) , Google ( AI , productivity tools, Android ) , Apple (software, iOS ) , Cisco (enterprise communications) , Oracle (database) , Linux (operation systems) , Tencent and Nintendo (game consoles and software) , etc., but relying on innovation and openness, Microsoft has once again stood on the top of the wave.

"Bloomberg Newsweek" reported four years ago that Microsoft's "rebirth" meant to its competitors that the empire had struck back.

The secret to the revival of the Microsoft empire may lie in those few words: not arrogant or narrow-minded, able to innovate and willing to open up.

If we draw lessons from Microsoft's renaissance, perhaps the most important lesson is this: greatness cannot be planned, and neither can renaissance. But the road to great enterprises is often paved by innovation and openness. Arrogance and narrow-mindedness will only lead to the opposite of revival.

Using Microsoft as a mirror, you can know the ups and downs, gains and losses, and many other things.

I hope that more Chinese technology giants can also usher in their own "Microsoft-style renaissance moment."