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The U.S. Department of Commerce tightened its export ban on Huawei last Friday, requiring foreign companies using U.S. chip manufacturing equipment to obtain export licenses before supplying them. This ban has threatened Huawei's survival space. Market analysts believe that the U.S.'s "surgical" attack on Huawei may reshape the supply chain of the entire technology industry.
Industry executives and analysts expect that the United States' tightening ban on Huawei to cut off the supply of key chips to Huawei will have a significant impact on the broader technology supply chain. An executive at a Taiwanese computer chip company said that when Huawei was first blacklisted in May last year, it was more like a major political signal, but the effect was limited. However, people at the U.S. Department of Commerce have spent a year sharpening their knives, and the new rules may bring real changes to technology.
Credit Suisse said that about 40% of the world's chipmakers use equipment provided by US companies such as Applied Materials and Lam Research, while the number of companies using software from companies such as Cadence, Synopsys and Mentor is as high as 85%, so it is almost impossible to find a manufacturing plant or wafer fab that can still cooperate with Huawei.
Randy Abrams, head of Asian semiconductor research at Credit Suisse, believes that since China's largest chip design company HiSilicon outsources most of its production to TSMC and SMIC, both companies are likely to stop producing chips for Huawei unless a solution is found before the 120-day grace period expires.
“There’s a lot of concern that this could become not just a tit-for-tat between China and the U.S., but a kind of technological cold war,” said Geoff Blaber, vice president of technology research firm CCS Insights.
The report pointed out that Huawei's more likely choice is to turn to MediaTek's smartphone chipsets. Industry analysts said that because MediaTek's chips are not customized, the new US sanctions against Huawei do not apply. Last month, Huawei mentioned MediaTek, China's Spreadtrum Communications and South Korea's Samsung as potential chip alternative sources.
But the bigger problem for Huawei may be its telecom networks business, which has helped it grow into a global tech giant and still accounts for 35% of total revenue.
There are currently no alternative suppliers for the specialized chips, or ASICs, that power the base stations produced by Huawei. A Taiwanese semiconductor executive said that both HiSilicon and Huawei have been actively building up inventory over the past year, so they will probably be able to fulfill current 5G orders in China. But beyond that, the outlook looks very bleak.
Morgan Stanley: These six US companies are the first to be hit
The United States recently tightened restrictions on the export of technology products, prohibiting any company from selling products or hardware using American technology without US permission. The outside world expects that China's Huawei's chip supply will be cut off as a result, but Morgan Stanley analysts pointed out that the new US regulations may also hurt the business of six US chip companies such as Applied Materials, Micron Technology, and Texas Instruments.
Bloomberg reported on the 18th that the latest US attack on Huawei will not only threaten Huawei's leadership in manufacturing smartphones and telecommunications equipment, but will also threaten hundreds of related suppliers. Analysts at Morgan Stanley pointed out that the business of well-known US chip companies may also be affected.
Morgan Stanley listed companies such as Applied Materials (a supplier of semiconductor equipment and services), KLA (a semiconductor process control and yield management service provider), Lam Research (a semiconductor product manufacturer and designer), Micron and Texas Instruments as possible victims of the new US export regulations, and said that any situation that escalates trade tensions will be detrimental to the entire stock market.
*Disclaimer: This article is originally written by the author. The content of the article is the author's personal opinion. Semiconductor Industry Observer reprints it only to convey a different point of view. It does not mean that Semiconductor Industry Observer agrees or supports this point of view. If you have any objections, please contact Semiconductor Industry Observer.
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