The battle for the 80 trillion industry has broken out, this may be your best opportunity in the next 10 years!
Source: The content comes from China Business Strategy·China Business Hall of Fame ID: hstl8888, author Xiong Jianhui, thank you.
The 5G era is within reach, and it will profoundly change your world and mine.
5G is coming.
On August 24, South Korea announced that the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics will be the first 5G Olympics in history.
By then, 4K high-definition live broadcast, 360-degree panoramic VR, on-site time slicing... will allow people to be "immersive" from a first-person perspective and feel the charm of the stadium; catering, accommodation, transportation, shopping and other services inside and outside the stadium will be provided by unmanned machines throughout the process through the Internet of Things technology; the transportation of the event will be undertaken by driverless cars, and the relevant positioning error is said to be only a few dozen centimeters.
The next day, China's State Council issued a document announcing that it would fully launch 5G commercial use in 2020. The intention of competing with each other was clearly written on the paper, and it also triggered a surge in the price of 5G concept stocks in the capital market, which has continued to this day.
Immediately afterwards, around the International Consumer Electronics Show in Berlin, Germany, 5G remained the hottest topic, and the performance of Chinese companies attracted the attention and even nervousness of their global peers.
During the period, Huawei released its first artificial intelligence (AI) mobile computing platform, Kirin 970, in Berlin. Afterwards, Deutsche Telekom announced that it would officially launch the world's first 5G commercial network in conjunction with Huawei.
The Kirin 970 chip is the first to support the world's highest communication specification LTE Cat.18/Cat.13, and achieves the industry's highest 1.2Gbps peak download rate, thus creating a new milestone.
As Huawei's first artificial intelligence mobile computing platform, Kirin 970 also has unique advantages in AI computing capabilities, which can bring consumers a smoother new mobile AI experience, thus becoming the most veritable representative of Pre 5G.
Huawei Consumer Business CEO Yu Chengdong revealed that the company's first new generation Mate series product equipped with the new Kirin 970 chip will be released in Munich, Germany on October 16.
Therefore, in November last year, Huawei, which won the final coding solution for 5G eMBB scenarios with the Polar Code solution and achieved a breakthrough in the core voice of Chinese people in the communications field , has become the leader in the 5G era.
This leadership has huge significance for both Huawei and China.
2G is used to read novels, 3G is used to look at pictures, 4G is used to watch videos, what can 5G do?
In the 5G era, blockbuster movies can be downloaded in seconds, and the speed is 100 times that of 4G. Obviously, this is not all 5G is about.
2G-4G are essentially about connecting people. But 5G will not only connect people, but also connect people to things and things to things. Smart homes, smart cities, smart cars, smart robots, etc. in the future world will all be built on the 5G information highway.
When you wake up in the morning of the 5G era, you will face a new programmable world.
Under the control of the massive machine type communication (mMTC) technology, most home appliances and home furnishings are implanted with IoT chips. As a result, lights are automatically dimmed, air conditioners are automatically adjusted to adjust temperature and humidity, water meters, electricity meters, and gas meters are automatically read and recharged, and surveillance probes and home security doors are all capable of facial recognition and automatic alarms. Smart refrigerators can not only help you shop automatically, but also remind you which foods are about to expire based on the chip information in the food packaging.
If you think that enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB) (the scenario solution won by Huawei's polarization code) only allows you to download blockbuster movies in seconds, then you underestimate it. Under AR/VR technology, a pair of powerful VR glasses will directly bring you to the football scene: choose your favorite star, goalkeeper, referee or God's perspective to watch the entire game. Such audio-visual dynamics are dazzling.
Once similar AR/VR technologies are developed, powerful applications will emerge in an endless stream. In a smart workshop full of sensors and high-definition cameras, workers can control the production line without being on site; with the assistance of surgical robots, doctors can perform precise remote surgeries thousands of miles away.
Once QQ and DingTalk are made into VR high-definition versions, a large number of meetings, offices, and business scenarios in governments, universities, and enterprises can basically be realized remotely. Some companies will even directly work remotely to improve efficiency and avoid traffic jams.
After work, you order a takeaway at a VR restaurant, and the store will call a shared drone (or driverless car) to deliver it. In the ultra-high reliability and ultra-low latency communication (uRLLC) scenario, shared drone (driverless car) companies in cities have emerged and are likely to subvert traditional express delivery companies.
As for the delivery address, it can be set at the "helipad" in your home equipped with an IoT chip, or it can be set to "mobile phone signal tracking". Even if you wander around, it will not prevent the drone from finding you in the vast crowd.
The huge Internet of Vehicles has become the standard for smart cities in the 5G era. When people connect all the buildings, roads, pipelines, street lights, and even bushes and animals in the city, the response speed of self-driving cars can be increased to 5 milliseconds.
The automobile industry has been completely transformed, and urban transportation has taken on a whole new look. The only problem is that it is difficult for people today to predict the path that society will take in the future: will the Internet of Vehicles completely improve urban transportation, or will remote work become popular in VR scenarios because people no longer have to squeeze to go to work and the roads will become completely unobstructed.
Under 5G conditions, Jack Ma’s prediction of “Made In Internet” is likely to come true.
The smart factories of the future will be filled with intelligent industrial robots, cloud-based production management systems, and precise warehousing and logistics systems. The production capacity of each machine and each assembly line will become searchable, controllable, and tradable in the industrial Internet.
For example, when the peak production season arrives and your own production capacity is insufficient, you only need to search on the industrial Internet and wear VR glasses to see which assembly line meets the requirements and has idle production capacity. After selecting, you send the production process and quality standards, and it can immediately do the work for you. After completing the order, your assembly line can also be traded online and used by others. Under the conditions of the Internet of Things, the efficiency of industrial manufacturing will be greatly improved, and the method may be as simple as visiting a Taobao store.
When everything is connected to each other, the efficiency and logic of the entire economic industry are destined to be completely subverted.
According to the generally accepted 5G promotion schedule, live network testing will be completed in 2017, commercial trials will begin in 2018, small-scale commercial use and 5G licenses will be issued in 2019, and large-scale commercial use will be officially launched in 2020...
But now, countries around the world are busy overtaking rapidly and frantically "preparing for war" because this is a "war" in which the consequences of losing will be serious.
In July 2016, the United States officially planned the 5G high-frequency spectrum. The two major operators, Verizon and AT&T, have begun 5G trials, and more and more cities are participating, and the competition is becoming increasingly fierce.
In terms of 5G applications, the United States is more focused on audio-visual entertainment fields such as live video, 4K high-definition, and online on-demand. Technically, it hopes that 5G can be integrated with existing satellite and fixed networks.
Compared with other countries, Qualcomm of the United States clearly has lofty ambitions for the future of 5G.
In September this year, Qualcomm took the lead in releasing a mobile chip dedicated to smart cars, but showed little interest in 5G mobile phone chips. Qualcomm CEO Morenkov said frankly: The most exciting technological innovation will appear in the automotive field, and Qualcomm is more optimistic about this explosive industry.
South Korea and Japan began deploying 5G networks during the 2018 Pyeongchang Winter Olympics and the 2020 Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, respectively, and hope to become world-leading 5G communications powers.
Japan's outstanding feature is that it has used 5G to achieve ultra-high-speed response of robots. For example, in table hockey games, robots have achieved accurate interception of all shots, which is really admirable.
Europe is full of established mobile communication powerhouses such as Nokia, Ericsson, Vodafone, and Orange, and governments are also gearing up for the future. Austria claims to be the pioneer of 5G in Europe; the UK has invested money, people, and policies, claiming to be the global leader in 5G; Germany has remained silent, pulling Huawei to deploy 5G in the existing 4G network.
However, some industry experts believe that all these rushes will eventually be defeated by China's power.
First, China's 5G R&D investment and capital expenditure are huge. China's three major operators have long made bold statements: spending 1.2 trillion yuan to build the world's largest 5G network. Data shows that China accounts for 24% of the world's total 5G spending, second only to the United States' 26%.
In other words, the real heavyweight players are actually only China and the United States.
Second, China has the largest number of mobile users in the world, and is bound to become the world's number one in terms of application scenarios. With this, China's 5G will be more powerful and potential than the United States' 5G.
Third, China has already gained the confidence to be a "leader" in the field of 5G technology.
In addition to Huawei, ZTE is now also the flag bearer of 5G.
At the 2016 Mobile World Congress, ZTE won two industry Oscar-level awards, the "Best Mobile Technology Breakthrough Award" and the "CTO Choice Award", for its Pre5G Massive MIMO technology. The subtlety of this technology is that it can double the spectrum efficiency without changing the existing 4G network and terminals, making 4G and pre-5G networks compatible.
This, together with Huawei's polarization code being identified as a 5G eMBB scenario solution, has become a landmark event in the history of Chinese companies leading 5G technology, greatly enhancing China's voice in the global communications field.
From "following 2G", "breaking through 3G" to "synchronizing 4G", Chinese enterprises were once helpless in the face of the "hegemony" of the US communication standards. In 2016, the US launched a "sale ban" against ZTE, prohibiting the export of certain core electronic components. But in fact, China is not without the technology to produce them, but because the standards are controlled by others, it can only be forced to import them to achieve compatibility, and thus be controlled by others.
Just this April, two experts from ZTE were selected as the editors-in-chief of the 5G new air interface core protocol, becoming important participants and contributors to 5G global technology and standards. This means that China already has a certain say in 5G standards.
In 2018, the 5G standard will be finalized. An unprecedented fierce competition will inevitably break out between the major powers. The outcome of this competition will determine whether China's communications manufacturing industry can rise in the world.
However, in addition to the technology itself, China's strong market position will also influence the future direction.
In August this year, China Mobile, the world's largest mobile operator, teamed up with ZTE to openly take the lead in formulating the company's 5G standard SPN (i.e. Sliced Packet Network technology). This standard of "you can play however you want, I will play this way" has actually made a choice for other companies in the industry chain.
Foreign media therefore say that China is using its scale and technological advantages to try to block other countries' future voice in standards. Our assessment is that this should have been done long ago.
This is even more obvious in the spectrum deployment of 5G. Today, the entire industry chain is looking forward to the unified allocation of 5G spectrum as soon as possible. In the low-frequency band, the situation varies from country to country, but there is little controversy; in the high-frequency band with higher bandwidth and faster transmission rate, China and Europe have the same plan, while the United States, Japan and South Korea have their own "little ideas".
On this issue, Chinese technical experts have basically determined that China's core spectrum is destined to be the first in the world. Regardless of how other countries divide it, China's large-scale application will play a leading role in the determination of spectrum.
Huawei has revealed the secret: in fact, foreign operators are closely watching China's release of the first 5G frequency. In this way, they can easily share the scale advantage of China's 5G deployment.
Because, with the three major operators working at full capacity, China has become the world's largest 5G network testing ground.
Taking China Mobile as an example, the test cities were set in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Suzhou and Ningbo. The 5G network was built by Datang Telecom. The test results were extremely amazing: the download peak rate reached 10~20G, the delay was less than 1 millisecond, and the number of access devices per square kilometer exceeded 1.5 million. Compared with Deutsche Telekom's built network, all the data are several times stronger.
The latest news shows that in the second phase of the Chinese 5G trial conducted in Huairou, Beijing, Huawei took the lead and became the only manufacturer to complete all test items in six major areas. Some people commented that this is a key milestone in China's 5G research and development process.
Gartner, a world-renowned consulting firm, therefore admitted that China is likely to lead the world in the commercialization of 5G.
The impact of 5G on the future economy is beyond imagination.
Some experts predict that in the next decade, the number of global IoT connections will exceed 100 billion; Qualcomm believes that by 2035, the total value of 5G-led products and services will reach a record US$12 trillion (approximately RMB 80 trillion).
Under this circumstance, the communications industry will usher in an unprecedented boom, and the manufacturing industry, the Internet and even human lifestyle will usher in a major change, which will also create new business opportunities.
The architecture of 5G networks is the first wave of commercialization. With the huge demand for base station construction, basic materials and products such as optical fibers and optical devices are expected to experience explosive growth around 2020.
Among these, the most certain is probably the optical fiber industry.
5G's demand for optical fiber is unprecedented. Unlike 4G base stations, which are spaced one kilometer apart, 5G's ultra-high demand for speed and connection density will shorten the distance between base stations to hundreds of meters, leading to a significant increase in optical fiber connections between base stations. Some experts estimate that if 5G is to become popular, the global demand for optical fiber will increase three or four times.
It is predicted that the industrial opportunities brought by 5G will have distinct rotation characteristics.
In the initial stage, the construction of 5G networks will generate huge demand for optical fiber cables, base station equipment, RF antennas, optical communication modules, etc.
After 5G is officially put into commercial use in 2020, new terminal devices such as 5G mobile phones, high-definition TVs, and VR glasses will usher in vigorous development.
With the deployment of 5G Internet of Things, smart homes, smart cities, smart transportation, and smart manufacturing will all be realized one by one.
The super big data in the 5G era will obviously far exceed the current ones. What is even more unusual is that because the IoT data is less mixed with human subjectivity, it is very likely to give birth to truly super artificial intelligence.
Looking into the future from 5G, it is likely to create a forerunner era for the true arrival of artificial intelligence.
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