5G is coming, I can only wait and see about mobile phones and packages
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The three major operators will implement 5G commercial packages from November 1: the tariff may start at 199 yuan
On October 27, according to the latest industry news, China Unicom and China Telecom will announce the 5G commercial package rates on November 1, just like China Mobile, and the three companies will officially launch commercial 5G services on the same day. In fact, the three major operators have already provided 5G network services since August this year, but they are all in the form of experience.
This week, when Huawei released the Mate 30 series 5G version, it said that the new phone will go on sale on November 1, and by then the domestic 5G network environment will be relatively mature. This actually also hints at the time when the three major operators will commercialize 5G.
Regarding the commercial use of 5G, China Mobile Beijing Branch has publicly stated that they have completed the construction of about 5,000 5G base stations and strive to achieve full outdoor coverage within the Fifth Ring Road and suburban counties by the end of 2019. So far, the three major operators have built 11,000 5G base stations in Beijing, and 5G network signals can cover densely populated areas within the Sixth Ring Road, Daxing International Airport and other areas.
Compared with the commercial time of 5G, what users are most concerned about may be the 5G package charges. According to insiders in the telecommunications industry, the 5G commercial package charges of the three major operators have been basically completed. Compared with 4G package charges, they will not be too cheap in the early stage, and basically start at 199 yuan.
The package fee is not cheap, old users can enjoy discounts in the early stage
Judging from the China Unicom 5G package standards previously exposed online, there are a total of four packages, namely 199 yuan, 299 yuan, 399 yuan and 599 yuan. The 199 yuan package includes: 1,000 minutes of domestic voice calls, 100GB of domestic data traffic (the current experience package has a monthly data traffic of 100GB), and the upper limit of 5G network speed: 500Mbps downlink and 100Mbps uplink. China Mobile and China Telecom basically maintain the same level.
Regarding the 5G package fee starting at around 200 yuan, Jian Qin, vice president of China Mobile, once said that in the early stage of 5G package promotion, the threshold must be very high, mainly for mid-to-high-end users, whose package fees in the 4G era reached several hundred yuan per month, so the starting package fee of around 200 yuan is not high for them. For operators, the 5G network is still in the stage of heavy investment, and everyone needs the revenue brought by 5G traffic to cover the cost. However, the current 5G network is limited in scale, and the large number of users brought by too low package fee starting point will make the network unbearable.
In addition, Wang Xiaochu, chairman of China Unicom, also said that 5G promotion will be carried out in two phases. The first phase is a transition period, from now to November 22, mainly in the form of adding function packages, with the lowest package being around 190 yuan per month; the long-term plan is to seek differentiated pricing based on the quality and speed of users.
Although 5G package charges will not be cheap, old users can still enjoy discounts in the early stage. For example, users with a network age of 5 years or more can enjoy a 30% discount on China Mobile's 5G package, and users with less than 5 years can enjoy a 20% discount. After receiving it, new and old users can enjoy a 30%/20% discount on 5G package fees for 6 consecutive months starting from the next month after ordering China Mobile's nationwide unified 5G package. China Unicom and China Telecom offer a 30% discount for users with a network age of 3 years or more, and a 20% discount for users with a network age of less than 3 years and new users, and the discount period is within 6 consecutive months after the package officially starts. At the same time, there are discounts of several hundred yuan for purchasing corresponding 5G mobile phones.
If we look at it comprehensively, even if the 5G package charges of the three major operators start at 199 yuan, after the discount for old users, it may be around 140 yuan. In this way, the acceptance rate may be higher, which will help the rapid popularization of 5G networks. In fact, if we compare horizontally, the 5G package charges starting at 200 yuan are much cheaper than those in South Korea and the United States, where the cheapest commercial 5G packages start at 350 yuan and 570 yuan respectively.
5G commercial speed leads South Korea and the United States
In the first half of this year, China Mobile revealed that its 5G investment in 2019 will be around 24 billion yuan, while China Unicom and China Telecom's 5G investment will be 8 billion yuan and 9 billion yuan respectively. The three companies are currently increasing the number of 5G base stations at full speed. Compared with the wealthy China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom will adopt a joint construction approach in 5G network construction. The two parties have previously publicly stated that they have reached a high degree of consensus on jointly building a 5G network.
Specifically on this year's 5G construction goals: China Mobile's semi-annual financial report stated that in 2019, the company will build more than 50,000 5G base stations nationwide, realize 5G commercial services in more than 50 cities, and provide 5G commercial services in all cities at the prefecture level and above by 2020; China Unicom revealed in its financial report that it has built 17,000 5G base stations in the first half of this year, and it is expected that by the end of 2019, Unicom will have built a total of more than 40,000 5G base stations in 40-50 cities; China Telecom stated that it will strive to launch SA network upgrades in 2020 and adhere to the direction of independent networking (SA). It is currently conducting 5G trials in 17 cities, which can be commercialized simultaneously in the future.
A previous report from market research firm Bernstein showed that by the end of 2019, the number of 5G base stations in China will exceed 150,000. Compared with South Korea and the United States, which have already announced commercial use, China's leading advantage is not ordinary. By comparison, the number of 5G base stations in South Korea and the United States at the end of this year will be only 75,000 and 10,000 respectively. More importantly, Chinese operators also hope to provide 5G commercial services in all cities at the prefecture level and above in the country by the end of next year, and then promote them to other parts of the country. Some fifth-tier cities are expected to build ultra-high-speed 5G networks by 2021.
At present, most countries and regions that have commercialized 5G networks have started with NSA first, and then gradually transitioned to dual-mode networking, and finally realized SA. This can save a lot of network construction expenses (after all, it is an upgrade and transformation of the 4G core network), and after the rapid commercialization, it can continue to invest in SA network construction. Since the construction of 5G networks is a long process (5-10 years) and requires huge investment, it is reasonable for operators to let NSA go first and eventually transition to SA networking.
It is particularly important to note that both NSA and SA are part of the 5G technical standards developed by 3GPP (both are 5G networks), and the difference between the two is that the former is a non-independent network with mature technology and can cover a large area, while the latter is an independent network, which is still in the trial stage and it will take time to achieve basic coverage. However, mobile phones that support NSA cannot be replaced or upgraded to SA, but this does not affect normal use in NSA 5G networks at this stage.
When to switch to a 5G phone?
For users who want to experience 5G networks, changing to a 5G mobile phone is a must. A report from research firm Strategy Analytics shows that 5G mobile phone sales will soar in 2020, and their cumulative sales will exceed 1 billion in 2025.
According to the industry chain, driven by domestic mobile phone manufacturers, the 5G mobile phone industry chain is currently expanding rapidly. It is expected that in the fourth quarter of 2020, 5G mobile phones priced less than 2,000 yuan will be launched. By that time, the commercial 5G network will be relatively mature, and the 5G mobile phone replacement wave will begin at that time.
Another factor that will lead to a 5G replacement wave in the fourth quarter of next year is that the 5G network coverage of the three major operators will be higher, which will further improve user efficiency. By then, terminal manufacturers will basically launch 5G dual-mode mobile phones that support NSA and SA.
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