IC Insights: DRAM prices will fall in the fourth quarter as inventory is reduced after strong growth

According to the updated McLean Report by IC Insights, a world-renowned semiconductor analysis agency, DRAM prices soared 41% in the first eight months of this year, from an average selling price (ASP) of $3.37 in January to $4.77 in August. In September, DRAM ASP fell 3% to $4.62, still up 37% from the beginning of the year (as shown below). 2019 was a relatively difficult year for DRAM, with ASP falling 44%, but 2020 saw strong price increases and a market rebound. However, the outbreak of the epidemic this year cast a shadow on the development of this market segment.

Starting from the beginning of this year, as vaccines were gradually approved in various countries and economies gradually resumed, DRAM suppliers rushed to meet pent-up demand in all end-use segments in the first three quarters of this year. As buyers were eager to have sufficient chip inventory for their systems, they purchased in advance and placed additional orders, adding more fuel to price increases.

Specifically, PC and server manufacturers purchased large amounts of DRAM in the first half of this year to help mitigate potential manufacturing and shipping delays later this year. They are expected to reduce large DRAM purchases in the fourth quarter of 2021 to consume existing inventory. PC and server DRAM prices are expected to decline 0-5% in the fourth quarter of this year.

IC Insights also expects global shipments of next-generation 5G smartphones to grow to 575 million units in 2021. However, given the uncertainty of the holiday buying season and the expected lower prices for mobile DRAM next year, smartphone manufacturers remain cautious about buying too much DRAM and are expected to focus on reducing inventory supply in the fourth quarter of this year. IC Insights believes this will keep mobile DRAM prices flat in the fourth quarter of this year.

In some cases, shortages of other semiconductor components have impacted DRAM pricing. For example, some of the strongest demand for graphics DRAM comes from graphics cards used in laptops. In the last quarter of this year, severe shortages of driver chips, power management chips, and other peripheral circuits are expected to limit graphics card production, which will reduce graphics DRAM purchases. As a result, graphics DRAM prices are also expected to fall by 0-5% in the fourth quarter.

下图显示了DRAM市场季度情况以及2021年前三季度的大幅增长。值得注意的是，在 2020 年第一季度跌至 148 亿美元的三年低点后，DRAM市场之后出现了显著反弹。今年第三季度的DRAM销售额创下了自2018年第三季度以来的最高季度销售额（260亿美元），2018年第三季度DRAM销售额达到 282亿美元的历史最高。