The "APP ban" has affected innocent people, and the supply chain has denied the reduction in iPhone 12 production

Recently, media reported that US President Trump signed an executive order on the 6th, stating that the mobile applications TikTok and WeChat pose a threat to US national security, and will ban any US individual or entity from conducting any transactions with TikTok, WeChat and its Chinese parent company after 45 days.

After the ban was issued, it immediately sparked heated discussions in all walks of life. One of the most discussed topics in the industry was the impact of this matter on the sales of the new generation of iPhones.

Supply chain affected

Four days ago, Tianfeng International stated in a report: "The US government's ban on WeChat has the greatest impact on the iPhone among Apple's hardware products. Our pessimistic and optimistic scenarios estimate that iPhone shipments will decline by 25-30% and 3-6% respectively." At the same time, the report also recommends that investors reduce their holdings of specific Apple supply chain stocks.

There are also reports that Apple has been discussing the new machine production plan with the corresponding supply chain overnight, and their attitude has changed from extremely optimistic to panic, because before November, it is not ruled out that there will be more radical situations. The report also pointed out that due to the more radical new regulations released last week, Apple's confidence in the market is obviously insufficient, so it is significantly reducing the corresponding orders.

As the above views and news emerged, Apple concept stocks fell.

Among them, an Apple accessories OEM factory named Amway announced on August 3 this year that the company had officially passed Apple's certification and obtained its supplier qualifications and orders. As soon as the good news came out, the company's stock price rose by the daily limit for three consecutive days. However, since the signing of the "WeChat ban", the company's stock price fell by the daily limit in the morning of August 10. As of the close of August 13, Amway's stock price fell by 6.80%.

Moreover, on Monday (August 10), the lowest intraday decline of Apple concept stocks was more than 1.8%. The intraday decline of core hot stocks such as Luxshare Precision, Lens Technology, Lingyi Intelligent Manufacturing, and Goertek was more than 5%. As of press time today, although the overall sector has rebounded slightly, the stock prices of several major Apple suppliers such as Goertek, Lens Technology, Luxshare Precision, Pengding Holdings, and Dongshan Precision have still fallen to varying degrees.

However, regarding whether there are plans to reduce production of iPhone 12, some iPhone suppliers told Jiwei.com that they have not yet received any notification from customers to adjust their orders.

A manufacturer that supplies modules for the iPhone revealed to Jiwei.com: "The stocking of the iPhone 12 series released this year has actually started a long time ago, and the first batch of orders was also negotiated last year; if we only look at this batch of orders, it has not been affected, and we believe that most manufacturers should not be affected either."

What will be the subsequent impact?

Although there was a report released by Tianfeng International first, some institutions also believed that the "WeChat ban" would not have much impact on the sales of new iPhone products.

CICC stated in a research report that although the "App ban" and "App store ban" may have a negative impact on the overseas business expansion of Chinese apps such as WeChat and TikTok, the possibility of WeChat and other Chinese apps being unable to be downloaded from the Apple App Store in China is small. Therefore, the direct impact of this measure on the use and sales of Apple phones in China is limited.

It is worth noting that the impact on iPhone sales mentioned in this view is limited to China, and in the past two years, the main force of iPhone global sales is still mainly in Europe and the United States.

As the trade friction between China and the United States becomes increasingly severe, the overall environment of the smartphone industry has become more complicated. The stocking quantity and orders for the iPhone 12 series next year will only be agreed upon in the second half of this year. Therefore, whether Apple will adjust its supplier orders due to the "WeChat ban" in the future, and the impact of this move on its sales remains to be discussed.

In addition, industry insiders also pointed out that the US's measures, such as listing a number of Chinese companies on the Entity List and banning Chinese apps, have actually had varying degrees of impact on the industrial chain, but some impacts will take a long time to manifest.

"At this stage, some American manufacturers, including Apple, are banned by the government from conducting technical exchanges with some Chinese companies, including any meetings and written exchanges involving product development, in order to prevent the leakage of drawings and technology. The most direct impact of such regulations is on the progress of new product development," the above-mentioned industry insider continued.

A supplier engaged in the automotive business also told Jiwei.com: "Since many auto brands and vehicle assembly plants are American companies, the progress of our new projects has also been affected. Some customers' projects that had already started last year have been suspended this year."