TrendForce: DRAM output value in the first quarter of 2020 decreased by 4.6% quarter-on-quarter due to the epidemic

The latest survey by market research firm TrendForce DRAMeXchange shows that the output value of DRAM in the first quarter of 2020 was US$14.8 billion, a decrease of 4.6% from the previous quarter.

TrendForce pointed out that DRAM suppliers were committed to destocking in the first quarter, and the inventory level at the end of the quarter had dropped significantly. Without the pressure of price cuts to sell, the average price of DRAM rose by 0-5% compared with the previous quarter. However, in order to curb the epidemic, countries adopted blockade policies, resulting in unsmooth logistics, so DRAM shipments also decreased and output value declined.

In addition, TrendForce predicts that the overall DRAM output value in the second quarter will increase by more than 20% quarter-on-quarter, because the orders that were blocked in the first quarter will continue to be shipped in the second quarter, and the increase in the average price of DRAM will continue to expand.

In terms of manufacturer rankings, Samsung ranked first with a market share of 44.1%, SK Hynix ranked second with a market share of 29.3%, and Micron ranked third with a market share of 20.8%. As production capacity planning is roughly the same, TrendForce expects that the market share will not change much in the second quarter.

In addition, TrendForce analyzed the production capacity and technical capabilities of the three major manufacturers. Samsung continues to shift part of its production capacity (Line 13) from DRAM to image sensors (CMOS), but the second plant in Pyeongtaek is expected to be put into DRAM production in the second half of the year to make up for the decline in Line 13 wafer input, while increasing the proportion of 1Z process. Considering the impact of the epidemic on demand, Samsung will carefully plan its output, and the increase in production capacity this year will not be high.

SK Hynix continues to shift DRAM wafer production at its M10 plant toward image sensors, increase output at M14, and will slightly increase production capacity at its Wuxi plant in the second half of the year, but the full-year capacity increase will not be high.

Micron's wafer investment and production capacity have not changed much from last year. This year's capital expenditure will focus on mass production and output improvement of the 1Z process. It is currently in the OEM active verification stage and will soon be able to enter mass production.