10 billion! The prelude to mass production of humanoid robots has been opened

On the evening of January 8, the official microblog of Top Group released information, announcing that the Top Robot electric drive system production line was officially put into production.

Public information shows that on January 4, 2024, Ningbo Top Group Co., Ltd. and Ningbo Economic and Technological Development Zone Management Committee signed the "Robot Electric Drive System R&D and Production Base Project Investment Agreement".

The agreement stipulates that the total investment of the project is about 5 billion yuan, of which about 3 billion yuan is fixed asset investment. The project will mainly focus on the research and development, production and sales of robot electric drive systems, and gradually expand other robot component businesses. The project is planned to be located in Ningbo Economic and Technological Development Zone, with a total land area of ​​about 300 acres.

Ambiguous relationship leads to speculation that Tesla's humanoid robots may be produced in China

As one of Tesla's largest suppliers in China, Top Group and Tesla have always been ambiguous on issues related to the production of humanoid robots, but there has been no official news announcing the details of the production location of Tesla's humanoid robots.

Careful netizens have discovered that Wu Jianshu, chairman of Top Group, once revealed in an investor exchange that the company has entered the robotics industry along with an "important customer" who has asked the company to increase its trial production capacity. The company is also investing a large amount of capital to build corresponding tooling production lines for large-scale trial production.

Tesla CEO Musk once made a speech at Tesla's shareholders meeting, believing that Tesla's long-term value will mainly come from humanoid robots, and predicted that the demand for humanoid robots will reach 10 billion units. At the same time, he believes that Tesla can quickly enter the humanoid robot track thanks to the foundation of Tesla electric vehicles, including the supply chain and FSD software foundation.

At the same time, Sanhua Intelligent Control, another major supplier of Tesla in China, also announced a new investment project at a similar time. On January 4, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Control Co., Ltd. disclosed the announcement of the "Sanhua Intelligent Control Future Industry Center Project Investment Agreement" signed with the Hangzhou Qiantang New District Management Committee.

The project consists of two sub-projects, with a planned total investment of no less than 5 billion yuan. Among them: Xiantu Electronics plans to invest in the construction of the Xiantu Intelligent Frequency Conversion Controller Production Base Project in Qiantang District, with a planned total investment of no less than 1.2 billion yuan; the company plans to invest in the construction of the Robot Electromechanical Actuator and Domain Controller R&D and Production Base Project in Qiantang District, with a planned total investment of no less than 3.8 billion yuan.

The two Tesla suppliers have invested a total of 10 billion yuan, and Tesla's high-profile actions in humanoid robots seem to point to the rumor in the industry that the Optimus humanoid robot will be trial-produced by two Chinese companies. It is reported that the two companies have put the large-scale mass production of the three major supporting parts of the robot, such as actuators, motors, and controllers, on the agenda.

Will 2024 be the first year for the commercialization of humanoid robots?

If 2023 is the first year of humanoid robots, then 2024 will likely be the first year of commercialization of humanoid robots.

Since New Year's Day 2024, humanoid robots have maintained a high exposure. First, on January 2, the Peking University News Network released a message that the unveiling ceremony of the "Peking University-Zhiyuan Robotics Joint Laboratory" (hereinafter referred to as the "Joint Laboratory") was held at the Peking University Frontier Computing Research Center. China's most powerful university and China's most popular humanoid robot company have joined forces.

Stanford then released the Mobile ALOHA robotic arm , demonstrating to the world its ability to cook dishes such as roast chicken with scallops, shrimp with scrambled eggs, and lettuce with oyster sauce. The robot in the video can not only cook, but also "clean up the battlefield" and wash pots, wipe the table, and tidy up the cupboards. Its business scope is not limited to the three inches of the kitchen, and "everything is alive" wherever it looks.

Figure, which set a goal to be the world's first commercial humanoid robot, immediately demonstrated its "hand brewing coffee" capability. Figure 01 is equipped with an end-to-end AI system. It can watch 10 hours of videos of people brewing coffee, and then it can completely complete the steps of opening the machine cover, putting coffee in, pressing the brewing button, etc. It can also self-debug and optimize if it encounters problems during the process. The company's founder excitedly said: This is the robot's real ChatGPT moment!

Figure is a humanoid robot company with great money-making power in Silicon Valley. In October 2023, Figure 01 just made its debut with "staggering". At that time, Tesla's Optimus Prime humanoid robot was already standing on one leg and practicing yoga.

Across the ocean, a Chinese humanoid robot company rang the bell to go public. On December 29, 2023, UBTECH officially went public on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a market value of nearly HK$39 billion on the first day of listing! At the 2023 World Robotics Conference, UBTECH founder, chairman and CEO Zhou Jian mentioned that the company is accelerating the implementation of three major application scenarios of humanoid robots: industrial manufacturing, commercial services, and family companionship.

The internal competition in the humanoid robot track has been upgraded. Whether it is UBTECH, which has already been listed, or Tesla and Zhiyuan, which are highly popular, they will definitely bring more important news this year.

Conclusion

The mobile phone industry has proved to us that the introduction of advanced technology and the development of a mature and stable supply chain will bring more cost-effective products. Now humanoid robots have also reached this stage. The improvement of the industrial chain is the beginning of commercialization. If humanoid robots want to move beyond the PPT propaganda era and move towards practical scenarios such as factories, homes, and schools, the first task is to reduce prices, and the localization of parts will accelerate the realization of this goal.