Humanoid robots will become a blue ocean market worth hundreds of billions of dollars

Less than three months have passed since the release of the "embodied end-to-end solution debut" of the first-generation Opmus. Recently, a video of Optimus-Gen2 (the second-generation Optimus Prime) was released. According to the video introduction, the second-generation Optimus is equipped with actuators designed by Tesla, a 2-degree-of-freedom drive neck, a more responsive 11-degree-of-freedom dexterous hand, tactile sensors (ten fingers), actuator integrated electronics and wiring harnesses, foot force/torque sensors, articulated toes, etc. In addition, the second-generation Optimus has significantly improved many performance features: walking speed increased by 30%, weight reduced by 10kg, and balance and whole-body control have been improved.

Industry insiders said that under the wave of electrification and intelligence, the emergence and continuous iteration of humanoids at home and abroad are expected to open up a broader market space than automobiles, and the humanoid robot industry chain will usher in an important investment opportunity from "0 to 1". From the introduction of the promotional video, the newly added tactile sensors, force sensors and more powerful balance perception capabilities are the main highlights of Tesla's second-generation Optimus humanoid robot.

Event-driven Tesla releases second-generation Optimus robot

On December 13, Tesla CEO Elon Musk showed a video of the humanoid robot Optimus on social media. The second-generation Optimus robot (Gen2), which will be released in December, has significant improvements in performance, structural design, operational flexibility and power.

First, performance improvement: walking speed increased by 30%, while the whole body weight was reduced by 10kg, maintaining the improvement of balance and whole body control. Secondly, the structural design was upgraded: the neck added 2 degrees of freedom, which is more flexible and conducive to the visual sensor to obtain a larger field of view; the foot adopts an articulated toe design, equipped with force and torque sensors, and the walking posture is closer to humans. Thirdly, hand flexibility and perception upgrade: the hand degrees of freedom are increased to 11, and all fingers are equipped with tactile sensors, which can perform complex movements faster and manipulate objects finely. Finally, material and technology improvements: the whole body weight is reduced by 10kg without sacrificing performance. Lightweight materials, such as high-strength PEEK engineering plastics, may be used to increase the load and flexibility of Optimus. In addition, although the specific weight reduction method has not been disclosed, it is speculated that the endurance and load capacity are improved through lightweight materials and possible battery technology optimization.

In September 2022, Tesla released Japan's Optimus humanoid robot at its second "Tesla Day". It can complete complex movements such as upright walking, carrying, and sprinkling water, but does not yet have the ability to perform fancy performances such as dancing.

In May 2023, Optimus has the ability to walk smoothly and grasp objects. In September, Tesla Optimus achieved autonomous classification of objects, using fully end-to-end training: input video, output control. For the Optimus-Gen2 released this time, Tesla said it will first be used in manufacturing plants and will only start selling it after actual application verification. Overall, although Optimus is expected to show rigid demand and diverse application scenarios in specific fields, its commercialization needs to be verified, especially in terms of performance, cost, and matching of market demand. The application performance of Optimus-Gen2 in its manufacturing plant needs further attention.

Industry Outlook: Humanoid robots will become a blue ocean market worth hundreds of billions of dollars

In 2013, Boston Dynamics' Atlas humanoid robot made its debut; in 2015, Norway's 1Xchnologies launched the EVE humanoid robot; in 2018, China's humanoid robot industry also began to emerge, and UBTECH's first-generation Walker product participated in the CES exhibition.

In recent years, there have been many catalytic events in the industry, and the industry has accelerated. Many business giants have gradually entered the humanoid robot industry. In 2022, the Tesla Optimus prototype was officially unveiled, and it was quickly optimized and updated in just one year. In the same year, Xiaomi's first full-size humanoid bionic robot CyberOne was unveiled at the autumn conference. In July 2023, at the opening ceremony of the World Artificial Intelligence Conference, China Fourier Intelligence released its latest general humanoid robot GR-1, which attracted strong attention in the industry and was regarded as a milestone in the era of general robots. In August 2023, at the Beijing Robot Conference, the four-legged robots Yushu and Yunshen Technology, as well as the startup Zhiyuan Robotics, successively launched humanoid robots. So far, the humanoid robot industry has entered a new stage of flourishing.

The realization of a closed loop of humanoid robot data is mainly divided into three stages: product release, factory scenario application, and consumer scenario application. The product release stage requires the completion of theoretical verification of humanoid robot products, mainly including walking tests, access to third-party large model data, and execution of specific tasks (such as sorting tasks). However, domestic humanoid robots are mainly in the stage of just releasing products and have not completed walking tests, access to third-party data, and execution of tasks.

As the functions of humanoid robots move towards diversification and universalization, the division of labor in the industry becomes more mature, and the cost continues to drop, the potential application scenarios are expected to cover multiple fields such as manufacturing and home services, and the market opportunities are broad. According to calculations and analysis, under the neutral assumption, the global humanoid robot manufacturing and home service market sales will reach 13.18 million units in 2035, with a CAGR of 98.2% from 2025 to 2035; if price changes are taken into account, the market size will be US$110.3 billion, with a CAGR of 68.6% from 2025 to 2035.

Investment strategy focuses on enterprises with core components and import substitution capabilities

The humanoid robot industry chain can be divided into upstream components and software system development, midstream body manufacturing, and downstream system integration and sales.

In the upstream, reducers, motors, and sensors are the four core components of humanoid robots, and the level of development of related technologies has a great impact on the performance of humanoid robots. In terms of software, software system development depends on software, which has high patent barriers and high requirements for data accumulation for technological development. At present, the "four major families" of foreign robots all have their own privately operated simulation software. The midstream body manufacturers have strong assembly capabilities and complete component integration according to the needs of downstream integrators. Downstream system integrators generally lead the design of the technical framework of humanoid robots and complete channel laying and after-sales service.

Debon Securities said that judging from the introduction in the promotional video, the newly added tactile sensors, force sensors and more powerful balance perception capabilities are the main highlights of Tesla's second-generation Optimus humanoid robot. Humanoid robot sensors have different objects and are divided into internal sensors and external sensors. Internal sensors are used to sense the robot's own state, such as position, speed, and acceleration; external sensors are used to sense the robot's surrounding environment and the state of the target object, such as vision, touch, hearing, smell, temperature, force, etc. The key sensor targets are Keli Sensing, Hanwei Technology, Huayi Technology, Donghua Testing, Bafang Co., Ltd., and Kaite Co., Ltd.

Zhejiang Securities believes that 2024 is expected to be the first year of mass production of humanoid robots, and hundreds of boats will compete with each other. Select the track: focus on planetary roller screws, hollow cups and other links with high technical barriers, high value and large domestic production space; select companies: focus on high-certainty targets and marginal improvements in supply chain status, from no supply to supply, from Tier2 to Tier1, from components to integration. Focus: Sanhua Intelligent Control, Top Group, Mingzhi Electric, Green Harmonic, Wuzhou Xinchun, Shuanghuan Transmission, Hengli Hydraulics, Boshi Shares, Huichuan Technology, Keli Sensing, Huayi Technology, etc.; focus: Best, Hechuan Technology, Beite Technology, Zhongda Lide, Buke Shares, Rifa Precision Machinery, Weichuan, Guomao Shares, Tianqi Shares, etc.

Guohai Securities pointed out that under the wave of electrification and intelligence, humanoid robot products have been launched and continuously iterated at home and abroad, which is expected to open up a broader market space than automobiles, and the humanoid robot industry chain will usher in an important investment opportunity from "0 to 1". Focus on companies with core component accumulation and import substitution capabilities, and recommend paying attention to Sanhua Intelligent Control (actuator assembly), Top Group (actuator assembly), Best (screw), Zhejiang Haideman (equipment), Green Harmonic (reducer), Shuanghuan Transmission (reducer), Mingzhi Electric (hollow cup motor), Jiangsu Leili (hollow cup motor, screw), Buke Co., Ltd. (frameless torque motor), Keli Sensing (sensor), Huayi Technology (sensor), etc.

Reviewing Editor: Huang Fei