Musk predicts that the number of robots will exceed that of humans. Are humanoid robots the future of smart homes?

Enthusiast Network reported (Text/Huang Shanming) In many science fiction movies, the humanoids in the family have always existed as housekeepers, handling household chores for users. They can not only act as housekeepers at home, but also serve as home assistants, security guards, playmates and other roles at home, greatly saving users' time.

At the recent 2023 World Conference, Musk publicly stated that there will be a large number of robots in the future, and in the long run, the ratio of robots to humans will exceed 1:1 at some point, and the number of robots will exceed that of humans. At that time, humans will enter a very prosperous era.

Empowerment, the humanoid robot industry accelerates

The development history of humanoid robots can be traced back to the late 1960s. During this period, Japanese research institutions and universities began to study and develop the design and control of humanoid robots. Among them, Professor Kato Ichiro of Waseda University is considered one of the pioneers in the field of humanoid robots.

Under his leadership, the Humanoid Robot Laboratory of Waseda University developed the world's first true humanoid robot-WABOT-1. The robot has a human-like size and shape, and is equipped with limbs, a visual system and a dialogue system. It can perform simple movements and conversations, such as shaking hands, walking, jumping, singing, etc.

In the following decades, the technology and design of humanoid robots have continued to develop and improve. Among them, Honda in Japan is one of the leaders in the field of humanoid robots. Honda

began research on the humanoid robot ASIMO in 1986 and released the first generation model in 2000. The robot has a human-like appearance and can perform simple movements such as walking, running, jumping and gestures.

With the continuous development of technology, the functions and performance of humanoid robots have been continuously improved. For example, Honda launched the All-New ASIMO in 2011. The robot has a higher level of action and judgment ability, can avoid obstacles, recognize voice commands, and communicate with gestures.

In addition to Japanese research institutions and companies, the United States and other countries have also conducted extensive research and development in the field of humanoid robots. For example, Boston Dynamics in the United States released the bipedal robot Atlas in 2016. The robot has a higher level of dynamic movement and balance ability, and can perform difficult movements such as jumping, climbing, and balance control.

The humanoid robot Opmus released in recent years has attracted widespread attention from society, industry and the market. At the same time, with the maturity of voice interaction and the rapid development of generative AI such as ChatGPT, the intelligence level of robots will be significantly improved.

Musk believes that in the future with a large number of robots, global production efficiency will be improved to an incredible level, and humanoid robots can engage in dangerous, repetitive and boring labor that humans are unwilling to do. For example, housework, mine clearance, high altitude and underground exploration.

In contrast, humanoid robots have also become the best carrier of AI. The AI ​​big model empowers the humanoid robot industry in many aspects such as language, vision, motion control, and reducing R&D costs. But in this way, AI needs to be allowed to have consciousness and wisdom like humans.

Musk believes that this requires strengthening the supervision of super artificial intelligence, which is more powerful than humans and therefore has risks and concerns. However, Yang Likun, the winner of the 2018 Turing Award, has a different opinion on this. He said that artificial intelligence should not be strictly regulated because of fear of the results of artificial intelligence. Open source is the core means of artificial intelligence governance. If technology is only controlled by a few companies, this is not a good thing.

Huge market potential, or the future

From a market perspective, robots have begun to be widely used in all walks of life, but most of them are not humanoid robots, but in the form of arms, sweeping robots, etc. The real humanoid robot market has just emerged. According to Markets and Markets, the global humanoid robot market size will increase from US$1.5 billion in 2022 to US$17.3 billion in 2027 (approximately RMB 125.5 billion), and a market size of over 100 billion is just around the corner.

Such a large market prospect has also attracted many players to enter. Not only Tesla, but also overseas companies such as Boston Dynamics, Honda, Engineered Arts, 1X chnologies, and domestic companies such as UBTECH, Dahua Robotics, Xiaomi, Fourier Intelligence, and Puremi Technology are all targeting the humanoid robot track.

In the field of smart home, humanoid robots can provide users with personalized services and suggestions based on user needs and preferences; connect and collaborate with smart home devices and platforms, such as smart lights, air conditioners, curtains, TVs, stereos, refrigerators, washing machines, sweeping robots, etc.; and accompany users in entertainment, learning, fitness, etc., to enhance the richness of users' lives.

Especially in today's increasingly serious situation of aging in China, the use of humanoid robots to assist in elderly care will become a development direction with great potential. Of course, the current humanoid robots are expensive. For example, Boston Dynamics' Atlas is worth $2 million, Honda's Asimo is worth $2.5 million, and Xiaomi's CyberOne costs as much as 600,000 to 700,000 yuan, which is basically unaffordable for ordinary people.

However, Musk has publicly stated that Tesla Optimus will be sold at a price of less than $20,000 in the future and will be mass-produced, and it is expected that 10 billion units will be produced in the future. The price of $20,000 is enough to be accepted by ordinary families.

Even if there is only Optimus in the market, and the sales volume is only one percent of the 10 billion units mentioned by Musk, the market size will exceed 2 trillion US dollars. If Musk's vision can be realized, the market size will exceed 200 trillion US dollars, which is extremely huge.

Compared with cars being an important means of transportation in a family, humanoid robots are expected to become an important necessity in the family in the future. Even with the development of technologies such as AIoT, large language models, AGV, and navigation, home service humanoid robots are expected to become a physical and integrated smart home entrance.

Just like in the 1990s, it was difficult for most ordinary users to own a "big brother", which was not only expensive but also inconvenient to use. But in just 30 years, almost everyone has one, and the development of humanoid robots may be beyond imagination.

Of course, at present, the development level and functional integrity of humanoid robots are not yet complete, and there is a lack of rich rigid application scenario requirements that can be completely replaced.

Due to the incomplete development of performance and low intelligence level, many working humanoid robots still lack the full replacement benefits. For example, humanoid robots in the home service sector do not yet have the ability to completely replace the functions of existing daily necessities. Humanoid robots in the field of commercial guide reception cannot answer all the questions raised by customers. In the search and rescue field, there is a lack of field search and rescue scenes and experience investigation and application. Ordinary users, general enterprises and the market have low acceptance and demand for them. Therefore, humanoid robots are currently used in the service field for scientific research and education or commercial exhibitions and displays.

However, it is certain that with the popularization of humanoid robots in the future, this product will also become another important hub after the smart central control screen in the whole house smart scene, and then become an important bridge for communication between people and objects.

Written in the end

With the rapid development of technologies such as AI, large language models, the development of humanoid robots has been greatly promoted. The family will also become an important landing scene for humanoid robots, helping users save a lot of trivial time, and can solve the care problems of the aging population and many people with mobility difficulties who need care in the future.

Especially when humanoid robots are combined with AI big models, embodied intelligence will be born. The so-called embodied intelligence is to combine intelligent algorithms with the robot's perception, action and environmental interaction capabilities, so that the robot can interact with the surrounding environment in a more natural and intelligent way and complete various tasks.

As predicted in a speech this year, the next wave of artificial intelligence is embodied intelligence, and humanoid robots are the external manifestation of embodied intelligence.