Big news! An inventory of five securities institutions’ research and judgment on the robotics industry

The "14th Five-Year Plan" for the Development of Robot Industry proposes that by 2025, China will have achieved a number of breakthroughs in core robot technologies and high-end products, with the overall indicators of the whole machine reaching the international advanced level, and the performance and reliability of key components reaching the level of similar international products. The average annual growth rate of the robot industry's operating income will exceed 20%; 3-5 industrial clusters with international influence will be built; and the density of robots in the manufacturing industry will double.

With the advancement of technology, the intelligence level of robots is constantly increasing, and the future market space is gradually being released, penetrating into thousands of industries. Not to mention the manufacturing industry where they have been widely used, robots can also be seen from time to time in daily life, such as food delivery robots, cleaning robots, etc. The accelerated application of robots has become an inevitable trend of future development.

Having said that, what problems will the robotics industry encounter in this development process? What opportunities will it have? What are the laws of its development? These are all issues worth exploring. If we talk about the group that is most sensitive to the development trend of an industry, securities institutions are undoubtedly one of them. Today, let’s take a look at the recent judgments made by five securities institutions on the development of robots.

CITIC Securities

CITIC Securities said that recently, the Shanghai Economic and Information Commission issued the first batch of "Shanghai Intelligent Robot Benchmark Enterprises and Application Scenarios Recommended Catalog", proposing to strive to create 10 industry-leading robot brands and 100 billion yuan robot-related industry scale by 2025, which is expected to promote the rapid development of the robot industry and the large-scale implementation of multiple scenarios. From the central government to local governments, policies continue to increase, and the robot industry has entered an acceleration period. In the future, more local governments may actively respond and launch a series of support measures related to the robot industry.

At the same time, CITIC Securities pointed out that the entry of Tesla robots has stimulated the market vitality of the robotics industry. Compared with humanoid robots, service-type pan-humanoid robots have the advantages of low cost, strong stability, and clear application scenarios, and are expected to be given priority in commercialization in the future.

Similar to smartphones, robots will become the next phenomenal consumer electronic product, driving the rapid development of upstream, midstream and downstream industries represented by servo systems, body manufacturing, and complete machine brands. Referring to the development history of smartphones, the robot industry is currently in its early stages of development. It is predicted that the robot industry will have a "hardware first" development trend in the future, and a mature OEM model may be formed in the middle and late stages.

Among them, core components such as servo systems are of outstanding importance, occupying the left side of the smile curve, with high gross profit margins and broad future prospects. CITIC Securities believes that companies with high core component production technology, rapid layout capabilities and high-quality customer resources can be the first to enjoy industry dividends.

The robotics industry can explore investment opportunities from three directions: industrial chain, localization, and new categories:

Industrial chain: Explore investment opportunities from the perspectives of navigation and positioning modules, motion control modules, perception and interaction modules, fuselage structures, chips, batteries, etc.;

Localization: UBTECH is the leading domestic humanoid robot company, and other leaders in the robotics field may also enter the humanoid robot market;

New categories: Before general-purpose humanoid robots can be commercialized on a large scale, in various segments, it is recommended to focus on cleaning robots, drones , delivery robots, inspection robots, AMRs, collaborative robots , special robots , etc.

Zheshang Securities

A research report by Zheshang Securities pointed out that ChatGPT, as the top model in the AIGC field, is expected to transform existing productivity tools, and its commercialization is expected to accelerate the significant progress of language AI and the AI ​​field as a whole. The human-computer interaction system is the "brain" of the humanoid robot, and speech semantic analysis is the core way of human-computer interaction, which can help robots have the ability to listen, speak, understand and think.

As human-machine interaction technology matures, the commercialization of humanoid robots is expected in the future. Core components account for about 70% of the cost of industrial robots . Compared with traditional industrial robots, humanoid robots have greatly improved degrees of freedom and are expected to use more reducers and motors than industrial robots. The demand for core components (reducers, servo motors , etc.) is expected to increase significantly.

At the same time, Zheshang Securities believes that the manufacturing industry's prosperity has continued to pick up since 2023. The PM was 50.1% in January and further increased to 52.6% in February, a significant increase of about 2.5pct from January, the highest value in the past year. In 2023, benefiting from the recovery of the manufacturing industry, the development of the robotics industry will accelerate.

Guojin Securities

Guojin Securities believes that the arrival of the "Robot+" era is expected to drive the overall prosperity of the industrial chain. On January 19, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and 17 other departments issued the "Robot+" Application Action Implementation Plan", proposing that by 2025, the density of robots in the manufacturing industry will double compared to 2020, the depth and breadth of application of service robots and special robots will be significantly improved, and the ability of robots to promote high-quality economic and social development will be significantly enhanced.

Deepen the application of "Robot +" in key areas, focus on the needs of improving social livelihood and economic development, select key areas with a certain foundation, wide application coverage, and strong radiation and driving effect, focus on typical application scenarios and user needs, and carry out systematic promotion work from robot product development, technological innovation, scenario application to model promotion.

From a policy perspective, it is proposed that all relevant departments and localities make the promotion of robot applications a key direction of scientific and technological innovation, industry planning, and industrial policy, coordinate policies, funds, and resources to provide support, and increase investment in the innovative application of robots.

From the perspective of the upstream links of the industrial chain, we will support and strengthen the research and development of core technologies of the robot industry chain, such as high-torque density servo motors, high-dynamic motion planning and control, and human-computer interaction, deeply explore and release potential application needs, and develop advanced and applicable robot products and system solutions.

Overall, the "Robot+" solution will accelerate the penetration of robots in all aspects of production and life, and is expected to drive the overall prosperity of the robot industry chain.

Guotai Junan Securities

Guotai Junan Securities believes that China's robotics industry has reached a turning point in demand and is expected to gradually move from copying and following to technology leadership, and from domestic substitution to overseas expansion.

China is the world's largest and fastest-growing robot market. From 2001 to 2022, robot sales increased from 700 units to 303,000 units (sales volume of US$8.7 billion), with a compound growth rate of 33.5%.

2017 is a watershed year for China's robotics industry. Before 2017, it was the stage of domestic substitution, and domestic robotics companies mainly gained market share at a lower cost through imitation. Since 2017, combined with the changes in AI deep learning, 3D vision, force control and other technologies, China's robotics industry has gradually become a market leader, with a compound growth rate of 23.1% in sales from 2017 to 2022.

Population structure changes, manufacturing industry Digital transformation , China's new energy industry has exploded and is leading the world, and Chinese robots may be able to replicate the development path of Japan's robot industry. In addition to enjoying external dividends, the continuous progress of core components and technologies such as motion control (including servo control, reducer, etc.), autonomous positioning and navigation, and human-computer interaction are the decisive factors for the long-term development of the robot industry.

Guotai Junan Securities also pointed out that the manufacturing industry is undergoing digital transformation, the new energy industry is rising, and the import substitution of industrial robots is accelerating. Looking back at the rise of Japan's robot industry, automobiles are the largest downstream of industrial robots. From 1970 to 1990, the output of automobiles increased from 5.81 million to 13.49 million units. Japan's industrial robots grew accordingly, with the output increasing from 1,350 to 100,000 units, with a compound growth rate of 25%. The two major robot companies, Fanuc and Yaskawa, have taken over the two major processes of automobile stamping and welding.