GGII: China's mobile robot industry data for 2022 released

In 2022, most mobile robot companies are under operational pressure from various aspects, but we can still see some positive signals released by the industry, such as the overall growth rate of the mobile robot market in 2022 will remain at nearly 27%, the demand in the downstream new energy industry will increase by nearly 70%, the overseas market demand will be strong, and capital will continue to flow in.

The Chinese mobile robot market may not necessarily see a retaliatory rebound in 2023, but it will definitely not be as powerless and helpless as in 2022.

Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII) focuses on mobile robots and conducts data research and verification on nearly 100 companies upstream and downstream of the industry chain. It now compiles and publishes some of the data, hoping to provide assistance to the analysis and decision-making of all parties involved in the mobile robot industry to a certain extent.

The mobile robot industry is currently in a stage of rapid development. In 2022, under the epidemic lockdown, the supply chain and delivery links of mobile robot companies were greatly affected. Despite this, the sales volume of mobile robots in the Chinese market in 2022 still hit a new high, reaching 81,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 27.67%; the market size was 9.673 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.83%.

In January and February 2023, the market showed clear signs of recovery. GGII believes that demand suppressed by the epidemic will rebound in the first half of 2023. It is expected that the annual sales volume in 2023 will increase by nearly 45%. In the next five years, the sales volume of mobile robots in the Chinese market will maintain a compound growth rate of more than 40%. By 2027, the market sales volume is expected to exceed 500,000 units, and the market size will exceed 45 billion yuan.

China's mobile robot market sales and forecast from 2018 to 2027

Over the past three years, the enthusiasm of domestic mobile robot companies to go overseas has been increasing year by year. On the one hand, domestic mobile robots have global competitive advantages in terms of product cost performance, project delivery capabilities, and after-sales service capabilities; on the other hand, the domestic market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, and companies are in urgent need of finding new growth points. Overseas labor costs are high, and customers are less sensitive to ROI, so companies can obtain higher gross profit margins.

According to statistics, the number of mobile robots exported by Chinese companies in 2022 was nearly 19,000 units, and the order amount accounted for more than 25% for the first time, reaching 25.87%, an increase of nearly 4% from 2021.

At present, some companies such as Geek+, Quicktron, Muxing, HaiRobo, Future Robotics, and Juxing Technology have close to or even exceeded 50% of their overseas orders; UAI, Guozi Robotics, Stand Robotics, Mowei Robotics, Jiazhi Technology, and Xiangong Intelligent are actively entering the overseas market. (Click to view the "List: TOP10 Chinese Mobile Robot Companies with Overseas Orders in 2022" )

As more and more companies go overseas, the international market will gradually become the new main battlefield, and it is estimated that the proportion of export orders will reach 30% in 2023.

Export share of Chinese mobile robot manufacturers (2021 vs 2022, by order value)

Data source: Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII)

In 2022, domestic economic development will still face the triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock, and weakening expectations. At the same time, the external environment will become more complex and uncertain in 2022, and the downward pressure on the domestic economy will become more prominent. Faced with macro uncertainties, capital investment decisions will appear more cautious, which is reflected in higher requirements for the commercialization and profitability of mobile robot companies, and the project inspection cycle and financing cycle will also be greatly lengthened.

According to incomplete statistics from GGII, there were 33 financings in China's mobile robot market in 2022, involving a total amount of 5.155 billion yuan. The number of financings decreased compared to 2021, but the overall financing amount continued to grow, with the single financing amount increasing by nearly 26%. The Matthew effect in the investment and financing market has gradually become prominent.

Financing in China’s mobile robot/logistics warehousing related fields from 2017 to 2022

Data source: public information, compiled by Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII)

At this stage, China's mobile robot market is still a competitive market, and the industry concentration is increasing year by year. In 2022, the concentration of China's mobile robot industry CR8=45.05% (that is, the sum of the market shares of the top 8 mobile robot manufacturers is 45.05%), an increase of 1.61% from 2021. The Matthew effect has initially appeared, and the gap between manufacturers is gradually widening.

From a segmented perspective, although the unmanned forklift market is in its early stages of development, there are a large number of players in the market, and most manufacturers are in the product polishing and scenario trial stage, with scattered downstream applications. Therefore, the industry concentration is relatively low (CR4=26.99% in 2022), and the gap between manufacturers has not yet really opened up. (Click to view the "2022 Unmanned Forklift Industry Development Blue Book" )

In contrast, as a new type of logistics solution, material box robots are also in the early stages of development, but the current players in the market are mainly leading mobile robot companies, with a fast product launch speed and concentrated downstream applications; this is reflected in the high industry concentration (CR4=76.92% in 2022).

Industry concentration of China's mobile robots and sub-sectors in 2022 (by shipment volume)

Data source: Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII)

GGII data shows that in 2022, there were 41 companies with AGV business orders exceeding 100 million yuan, among which Hikvision Robotics and Geek+ AGV business orders exceeded 2 billion yuan, and actual shipments exceeded 10,000 units; in addition, there were 8 companies with orders of 300-1 billion yuan, and 30 companies with orders of 100-300 million yuan.

From 2022 to date, Jingsong Intelligent and Kejie Intelligent have successfully landed on the Science and Technology Innovation Board, and Kunchuan Intelligent has successfully landed on the Growth Enterprise Market; Hikvision Robotics has completed listing guidance; Geek+, Beijing Automation Technology, Prolog, Kailes, Huarui Technology, and Jiuwu Interactive have entered the listing guidance stage.

2023-2025 is a critical period for competition in the mobile robot market. The successful listing of leading companies will drive a new round of market reshuffle. GGII predicts that in the next three years, more and more companies will reach the listing threshold and enter the listing stage. In 2023, the first company in China to be listed with AMR as its main business may be born. Within three years, more than five mobile robot-related companies will be successfully listed.

Distribution of the number of companies with AGV business orders exceeding 100 million yuan in 2022

Source: Gaogong Robot Industry Institute (GGII)

In 2022, from the perspectives of new product releases, investment and financing levels, and market performance, it can be seen that unmanned forklifts, material box robots, and AMRs are the most popular sub-segments at this stage. (Click to view the 2022 Autonomous Mobile Robot (AMR) Industry Development Blue Book ) According to GGII statistics, in 2022, the domestic unmanned forklift, AMR, and material box robot market sales will be 11,300 units, 18,000 units, and 3,500 units, respectively; the growth rates will reach 53.43%, 45.19%, and 72.68%, respectively; the corresponding sales share will rise rapidly under high-speed growth, reaching 13.90%, 22.08%, and 4.24%, respectively. Among them, the penetration rate of unmanned forklifts compared to industrial forklifts reached 1.65%, an increase of 0.7% from 2021.