GGII Insights: Top Ten Predictions for the Mobile Robot Industry in 2023-EEWORLD

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2022, the third year of the epidemic, can be regarded as a turning point for mobile robots.

This year, financing has become less easy, stories have become less easy to tell, investors have begun to focus on profitability, market orders have become less easy to get, supply chains have become "arrogant", and layoffs have become commonplace...

Fortunately, the basic foundation of mobile robots is still there. On the one hand, the demand for domestic manufacturing is still resilient, especially in the fields of automobiles and new energy. On the other hand, overseas demand continues to be released, many domestic manufacturers have entered the international market, and the proportion of exports continues to increase.

Whether it is layoffs or shrinking business to survive, they are all normal business strategies in special times. In the first half of the year, due to the epidemic and supply chain factors, an atmosphere of pessimism and involution permeated the industry. In special times, many downstream industries also faced greater survival and operating pressures. For example, in the first half of the year, the panel industry and PCB industry saw a sharp decline in operating rates and investment intentions.

The entire industry chain has begun to show a clear trend of differentiation. The leading manufacturers are far ahead of other manufacturers in terms of financial strength, supply chain resilience, and customer quality. Their advantages are expected to expand further under this situation. Based on their stronger resource advantages and ability to resist risks, the leading manufacturers can outperform other manufacturers when the industry is good, and can also outlast other manufacturers when the industry is bad. This is one of the most obvious characteristics of 2022 - differentiation.

The same differentiation trend is also occurring at the capital level. First, compared with 2021, the overall financing enthusiasm has dropped sharply, and the difficulty and threshold of corporate financing have become higher; second, capital is shifting to leading companies to seek higher certainty, and to sub-tracks to seek strategic opportunities, such as unmanned forklifts.

After several years of development, mobile robot manufacturers have basically completed the education of demand and capital parties, and have a deeper understanding of their own boundaries. The "omnipotence" they once thought of has gradually returned to the rational "something to do and some things not to do". The so-called strategy ultimately comes down to trade-offs. For those institutions that expect companies to "have one trick to dominate the world" and "the last one standing will be the king", 2022 is just an early "awakening" and "disappointment".

Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute (GGII) has sorted out the mobile robot industry, combined with macro data and research data information, and adhered to an objective attitude of neither pessimism nor optimism, and deeply analyzed the top ten predictions for the mobile robot industry in 2023:

Industry level:

1. The 3C industry will recover limitedly in 2023, and the automobile and new energy industries will be the main driving forces for the demand for mobile robots. GGII believes that the new energy industry will continue its high growth trend in the next three years, and the continuation of the expansion wave will have a greater demand pull on AGV/AMR. It is expected that in 2023, the demand for mobile robots in the new energy industry (lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc.) will exceed 24%.

2. Downstream demand is becoming more and more comprehensive, and the single product strategy is facing challenges. "Expanding product lines = improving capabilities" has become the active choice of many mobile robot companies. The market concentration of each product line segment continues to increase, and the Matthew effect has intensified.

Product level:

3. Industrial AMR: The sales share of industrial AMR continues to increase, and is expected to exceed 21% in 2023, with sales of nearly 24,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of more than 40%. Among them, more than 6 manufacturers are expected to have annual sales of more than 1,000 units. Key focus industries include automobiles and parts, and new energy (lithium batteries, photovoltaics, etc.).

4. Unmanned forklifts: The number of entrants continues to increase, innovative products continue to be launched, market competition intensifies, and product prices continue to decline. The market sales volume is expected to be close to 17,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. Among them, the number of manufacturers with annual sales exceeding 1,000 units is expected to exceed 5.

5. Bin robot: With fewer new entrants, sales in the Chinese market are expected to exceed 6,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 60%. The market structure tends to be dynamically balanced, and the top five companies occupy more than 90% of the market share.

6. Four-way shuttle vehicle: With the increase in entrants, the sales volume of four-way shuttle vehicles in China is expected to exceed 5,000 units in 2023, of which the sales volume of pallet four-way vehicles will account for more than 80%.

7. Kiva-like AGV: The growth rate of demand in the domestic commercial circulation sector has slowed down, and the sales share of Kiva-like AGVs has shrunk year by year. It is estimated that the sales share will be less than 50% in 2023.

8. Composite robots: The application areas continue to expand, and the comprehensive cost has dropped significantly. It is expected that the sales volume will exceed 2,200 units in 2023, with a growth rate of more than 50%. Among them, the share in 3C, semiconductors, and CNC processing fields has increased rapidly.

Market level Aspect:

9. In 2023, China's mobile robot sales are expected to exceed 110,000 units, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 35%. The market size will exceed 13 billion yuan . The growth rate of demand in the commercial circulation sector has slowed down, and the manufacturing sector has become a battleground. Among them, the new energy industry continues to become more crowded and competition has intensified.

10. A "two super and many strong" competition pattern has begun to take shape in China's mobile robot market. By 2023, there may be two Chinese mobile robot manufacturers with annual revenue exceeding 1.5 billion yuan, and the number of manufacturers with annual revenue exceeding 500 million yuan is expected to reach five, further improving market concentration.

Conclusion: How did the gap between companies widen?

To use a sentence from a senior to summarize the gap between domestic and foreign industrial software: because you can't see it, you can't think of it, and if you can't think of it, you can't do it. This is also one of the reasons why mobile robot manufacturers are currently widening the gap. The larger the customer, the more comprehensive and complex the requirements are. If you have not served a complex customer, then it is highly likely that you will not know how to plan and implement the scenario of this complex customer, and you will not know which key nodes there are, and how to improve and match them at the software and hardware levels.

This is what is likely to happen now and in the future. How can large manufacturers and large customers join hands, and mid-level manufacturers and mid-level customers join hands to break the deadlock? The key point is to seize the opportunities of new industries. How to form a closed loop from industry-scenario-know-how-product is a question worth thinking about for all companies.

2023 is worth your full effort!

Welcome industry exchanges

Lu Hanchen, Director of Gaogong Robot Industry Research Institute

WeChat ID: LuckyHC_88