Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019: IEA paints a big picture for practitioners

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has released the Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019. This report has 232 pages and contains some very interesting statistics. I have made some excerpts and sorted them out. Readers can also download the original text to take a look.

1) Ownership

In 2018, the number of electric vehicles in the world exceeded 5.1 million, an increase of 2 million from 2017, and the growth of new vehicles almost doubled. China is still the locomotive of the electric vehicle market. From a global perspective, the fastest growing markets are Europe and the United States. This data is clear from the stock: the stock of the Chinese market exceeds 2 million, mainly BEV; Europe and the United States add up to more than 2 million, and the stock of the three major markets is close to 5 million, accounting for the vast majority.

In comparison, there are 11,200 fuel cell passenger cars in the world, of which more than half (6,200) are in the United States (California). Other regions in the world include Japan (26%) and South Korea (8%). In Europe, Germany and France are the main countries for promotion, with a total of 1,400 units.

2) Market development

From the perspective of the time span from 2013 to 2018, China's high growth rate may gradually become smooth due to the base number, and the doubling stage has passed. This is a bit like Norway and the United Kingdom, where the growth rate tends to be smooth.

Among the major developed countries, South Korea's supportive policies have helped sales exceed 35,000 units; Canada has exceeded 40,000 units, and the Netherlands has returned to 30,000 units after the previous trough. These markets have relatively high growth rates.

Japan was the only major market where plug-in vehicle models increased, but sales fell

Norway, Germany, France, the UK and Sweden are all seeing gradual growth

From the perspective of vehicle model launch, there is a bias towards the three main market launch models:

China mainly focuses on small cars and pure electric SUVs

The number of vehicle models in Europe and the United States has increased relatively slowly, and plug-in hybrid models are generally larger; while pure electric vehicles are still concentrated in smaller models

3) Infrastructure

At this stage , the development of new energy vehicles is mainly based on car owners installing private charging piles. Compared with the number of vehicles in use, public fast charging piles have not effectively supported pure electric vehicles due to their business model and speed. As the batteries of electric vehicles become larger and larger, the private charging pile model represented by the "Shanghai model" may have encountered a bottleneck. In the future, it is necessary to move towards the "Beijing model" through the construction of public charging piles.

In the future, China's urban public fast-charging infrastructure system may provide a model for the development of electric vehicles around the world and support the long-term development of electric vehicles.

Note: If you want every household to have a charging pile, there is a clear ceiling as the number of charging piles increases.

4) Looking to the future

There are two outlooks in this report, based on policy and EV30@30 model considerations.

In the policy-driven model, global electric vehicle sales may reach 23 million in 2030, with more than 130 million electric vehicles in stock.

In the EV30@30 model, electric vehicle sales and ownership will almost double by 2030: sales will reach 43 million and ownership will exceed 250 million.

According to the IEA's forecast, China will still lead the world with a market share of 57% in 2030, Europe will continue to rank second, and major markets such as India may pull up. Due to the US energy policy, the US may fall behind in this transformation and be on par with Japan and India.

Summary: Compared with the current relatively pessimistic atmosphere, the IEA also painted a big picture for us practitioners