The advancing Robotaxi, is the road to commercialization still far away?

Robotaxi is booming again.

With the debut of Tesla's Robotaxi prototype Cybercab, vehicle manufacturers' Robotaxi businesses have successively revealed new plans and progress.

For example, some have revealed new plans: GAC Aion plans to launch Robotaxi in 2025, and Xpeng Motors plans to officially launch Robotaxi in 2026; some are cooperating with autonomous driving companies: BAIC New Energy is cooperating with Pony.ai, and Jiyue Auto will jointly build Robotaxi with Baidu Apollo from 2026 to 2027; some are investing in autonomous driving companies, such as GAC Group's wholly-owned subsidiary plans to invest US$27 million in Pony.ai.

Image source: BAIC Group

The above examples are a microcosm of the current industry boom of Robotaxi. At present, end-to-end technology is accelerating the implementation of high-level intelligent driving. As a key scenario for the implementation of L4 autonomous driving technology, the large-scale commercialization of Robotaxi has attracted much attention.

It is worth noting that car companies have played a key role in building the Robotaxi industry ecosystem by "climbing over" the mountains of policies and regulations, costs, and safety. Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute Analysts pointed out that car companies, as the core force, combined with the cooperation model of autonomous driving companies and travel service providers, are becoming the key to accelerating the marketization of Robotaxi. Today, with the popularity of Robotaxi, the value of the "Golden Triangle" continues to rise.

Robotaxi becomes a key "chess piece"

Liu Zongcheng, vice president of SERES platform technology system, once mentioned that according to relevant data from the National Information Center, the demand for intelligent driving among new energy users is continuously increasing. Specifically, the proportion of new energy users who believe that intelligent driving is necessary is 57% in 2022, and this proportion reaches 71% in 2024.

In the view of industry insiders, from the perspective of technological evolution, the current level of intelligent driving has been upgraded to the "critical point" between assisted driving and autonomous driving. Therefore, in the second half of the competition for new energy vehicles , Robotaxi has become the key to the layout of car companies.

It is reported that the Robotaxi named Cybercab released by Tesla has only two seats, butterfly doors, no steering wheel, accelerator and brake pedal, and is completely dependent on Tesla's FSD. According to the progress of Xiaopeng Intelligent Driving L4 announced by Xiaopeng Motors Chairman He Xiaopeng at Xiaopeng AI Technology Day, Xiaopeng's special system may cancel the steering wheel, changing it from a required option to an optional one, and users can hide or use it as needed. In addition, Ultra models will be developed for L4, and Ultra models will be developed globally to serve Robotaxi.

On November 2, Pony.ai and BAIC New Energy held a signing ceremony for technical cooperation in the development of L4 driverless models. The two parties will cooperate in the development of fully unmanned Robotaxi models based on the Alpha T5 model and Pony.ai's seventh-generation autonomous driving software and hardware system solutions. At present, technical breakthroughs have been launched around the development of autonomous driving vehicle-grade kits, vehicle production, chassis redundant safety design, and cockpit experience innovation. It is planned to complete and launch the first batch of Alpha T5 Robotaxi models in 2025.

Image source: BAIC Group

Gu Huinan, general manager of GAC Aion, has also publicly stated that the company is initially planning to launch an L4 Robotaxi next year. He believes that many Robotaxis running on the road are currently undergoing road tests, and Aion plans to launch Robotaxi on a large scale next year. It is reported that GAC Aion has established a joint venture with Didi Chuxing to launch its first commercial L4 model in 2025, and will work with NVIDIA and Desay SV to jointly create an L4 mass-produced car based on in-depth collaboration between software and hardware. Gu Huinan even stated that GAC Aion will become the first brand to mass-produce L4 pre-installed vehicles on a large scale.

It is worth noting that car companies are not all enthusiastic about Rootaxi. At the NIO IN 2024 Innovation Technology Day held in July this year, Li Bin, the founder of NIO, said that the core goal of intelligent driving is to liberate users' energy and reduce traffic accidents. However, he has reservations about the business model of Robotaxi and made it clear that NIO will never get involved in this field.

According to media reports, Li Auto co-founder Ma Donghui also expressed his views on the hot Robotaxi. He believes that when L4 autonomous driving is realized, the demand for online car-hailing and taxis will drop significantly, and this market will take a longer time to gain insight. This means that the prospects of Robotaxi may not be good.

Commercialization soil is becoming fertile

Gu Huinan said that the rapid development of autonomous driving is inseparable from the following four aspects: first, the computing power of chips is constantly improving and the cost is constantly decreasing; second, the breakthrough application of artificial intelligence algorithm Transformer and the application of large models in the field of intelligent driving; third, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Public Security and other departments jointly issued the first batch of L3 access regulations; third, many cities have established autonomous driving test areas.

Specifically, in terms of cost, the imported main laser radar used in the third phase of Apollo's unmanned vehicle costs more than 400,000 yuan, while the price of today's domestic laser radar has dropped to less than 10,000 yuan. This has also led to a drop in the price of Robotaxi vehicles. Previously, Musk said that the cost of CyberCab will be less than $30,000, and the transportation cost will be about $0.2 per mile. It is expected to start production in 2026. According to public reports, the sixth-generation Baidu Apollo unmanned vehicle will be launched in 2024, equipped with the sixth-generation intelligent system solution. The cost of the vehicle will be reduced by 60% compared with the previous generation, and the price will be 204,600 yuan, which is almost the same as Tesla's Cybercab.

As many regions have successively carried out intelligent network connection car testing, the scope of Robotaxi service is also expanding. Take Beijing as an example. The five key railway hub passenger stations, including Beijing South Station, Fengtai Station, Chaoyang Station, Qinghe Station, and the Urban Sub-Center Station, as well as the "five stations and two airports" connection of Daxing International Airport and Capital International Airport are the key scenes created by the expansion of the 3.0 phase of Beijing's high-level autonomous driving demonstration zone. At present, Daxing Airport has opened regular autonomous driving connection, and 40 vehicles from four companies, including Luobo Yunli, Pony.ai, WeRide, and Antu Zhixing, have accumulated a test mileage of more than 220,000 kilometers.

Image source: Beijing Yizhuang

Data shows that as of June 2024, 51 cities have introduced autonomous driving pilot demonstration policies. Among them, seven cities including Wuhan, Beijing, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Hangzhou and Shanghai have issued driverless vehicle qualifications to multiple companies and have successively entered the fully unmanned commercial pilot stage.

The early demonstration can provide relevant government departments with a replicable and popularizable collaborative management model in terms of route planning, policy opening and vehicle supervision, laying the foundation for subsequent companies to participate in scene construction. Local governments are also actively promoting the "first trial" of autonomous driving policies and regulations. From August 1, 2022, the "Regulations on the Management of Intelligent Connected Vehicles in the Shenzhen Special Economic Zone" will come into effect, and Shenzhen will begin to allow fully autonomous vehicles without human drivers to be on the road. It is reported that Beijing is promoting the legislation of the "Beijing Autonomous Driving Vehicle Regulations", which passed the first reading in September this year, and strives to be completed by the end of this year and implemented by next year.

In addition, regarding the controversial technology routes in the industry, analysts from Gasgoo Automotive Research Institute pointed out that in the exploration and application of driverless technology, multiple technology routes will coexist for a long time. Technologies such as LiDAR and visual recognition each have their own advantages and are suitable for different scenarios and needs. With technological advances and market changes, these technologies will continue to compete and complement each other to promote the development of driverless technology.

The value of the "Golden Triangle" continues to rise

Recently, chip companies Black Sesame Intelligent and Horizon Robotics, and autonomous driving companies WeRide and Pony.ai have been listed one after another, laying the groundwork for technological change and commercial development. Li Bin, who has a reserved attitude towards Robotaxi, does not deny its progress in technology.

There is no doubt that in terms of technology, autonomous driving has developed to the L4 level, however, large-scale commercialization still remains at the L2 level. The technical level is an important factor for autonomous driving companies to win in the competition, and commercialization is the key to sustainable development.