Gartner: By the end of 2025, the number of electric vehicles in the world will reach 85 million

Electric vehicle ownership will increase by 33% by 2025

By 2025, pure electric vehicles will account for 73% of all electric vehicles

Automakers will be able to recycle 95% of electric vehicle batteries by 2030

Gartner predicts that by the end of 2025, the global electric vehicle (EV) fleet will reach 85 million, including cars, buses, vans and heavy trucks.

“Despite some headwinds in the electric vehicle market over the past few months, we still expect the global electric vehicle fleet to reach 64 million in 2024 and grow 33% in 2025,” said Jonathan Davenport, senior research director at Gartner . “Many companies overestimated how quickly they could transition to electric vehicles, resulting in delays in the launch of new electric vehicle models by companies such as Ford, General Motors, Jaguar Land Rover and Toyota. Growth in electric vehicle sales in China (58%) and Europe (24%) will drive much of the growth in the global electric vehicle fleet through 2025, with these two markets expected to account for 82% of the global electric vehicle fleet.”

It is estimated that by the end of 2025, the total number of pure electric vehicles (BEVs) in the world will be close to 62 million, an increase of 35% from 2024. The growth rate of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) will slow down slightly, reaching 23 million in 2025, an increase of 28% from 2024 (see Table 1).

Table 1. Global electric vehicle ownership by type from 2023 to 2025 (unit: vehicle)

From a regional perspective, China's electric vehicle ownership is expected to remain higher than the total ownership in the rest of the world by 2025 and even in the next decade. The demand for electric vehicles in Europe and North America will grow steadily, and the two regions are expected to account for 36% of the global electric vehicle ownership by 2024. Gartner predicts that by 2025, China's electric vehicle ownership will reach 49 million, Europe and North America will have 20.6 million and 10.4 million respectively.

Automakers will be able to recycle 95% of electric vehicle batteries by 2030, reducing the risk of raw material shortages

As electric vehicle sales continue to grow, the shortage of raw materials will be difficult to solve. Davenport said: "If recycling efforts can be vigorously carried out to make full use of materials in spent batteries and waste generated during the manufacturing process, coupled with the EU's mandatory battery recycling measures, the need for more mineral mining can be reduced."

“Since the concentration of rare metals in batteries is higher than in natural ores, spent batteries can be considered a highly enriched ore. If recycled on a large scale, these spent batteries could improve the overall commercial viability of electric vehicles by reducing battery prices. This would have the added benefit that spent batteries would not be disposed of unethically or end up in landfill.”

Gartner predicts that by 2030, automakers will be able to recycle 95% of electric vehicle batteries, reducing the risk of raw material shortages.

Gartner clients can learn more in the “Global Electric Vehicle Shipment Forecast, 2023-2032.”