Battery industry inventory in the first half of 2024: growth slows down

When reviewing the battery industry, the monthly data often fluctuates significantly, reflecting the real-time dynamics of market supply and demand. When we adopt a more macroscopic half-year or quarterly perspective, we can see a more stable development trend.

In the first half of 2024, China's battery industry output is 430GWh, of which the power battery industry is estimated to be 340GWh, and other battery production capacity is 90GWh; about 203GWh of power batteries are used domestically, 60GWh are exported, and the total inventory is 76.4GWh.

1. Interpretation of quarterly data

By analyzing quarterly data and focusing on three key indicators: output, domestic installed capacity and export volume, we can see the following data.

● Output of power batteries

The growth rate of battery production is slowing down from a quarterly perspective. In the past, the peak demand for batteries during the peak season was around 200GWh. However, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles has reached about 50%, and the overall growth rate of battery production has also begun to slow down.

● Power battery installation quantity

The battery installation capacity in the quarter was 118GWh, which is close to the previous peak of 132GWh. The decline in production growth is also related to the decline in export growth.

● Export data

The export data of power batteries is basically flat, at 32GWh in a single quarter. Due to various policy restrictions, the growth of batteries exported from China is relatively limited.

According to the data below, in 2023, China's power battery exports will mainly go to Europe, the United States and South Korea. The US IRA restrictions are very large, and Europe's battery passport will also restrict the influx of batteries produced in China.

2. Competition landscape

The gap between CATL and BYD, the first-tier players in the power battery industry, is narrowing in 2024 , mainly because the two companies are being tied in the passenger car field. As the price war intensifies, the customers in the power battery industry are limited.

● BYD's increased share of sales in China's new energy vehicles has squeezed the customer base of other power battery companies. This vertical integration approach has directly cut down the demand for power battery companies within 200,000 units.

● Currently, CATL’s main customers, including Tesla , QX, Ideal, Zeekr, NIO and Xiaomi, are all customers with a price of more than 200,000 yuan. Among the brands with a price of less than 200,000 yuan, Wuling and GAC have adopted a split supply model. CATL’s price demands for batteries do not match the demands of these automakers in price competition with BYD. This is the main theme of the competition.

Therefore, the opportunity for the second tier is mainly to gain some volume from customer groups with more than 200,000 customers. These volumes can support the development of the company. Simply engaging in a price war will be too difficult.

It will be more obvious if you look at the table in June. Now the supply situation has been formed among CATL, BYD and others.

As long as the price war in the automobile industry does not stop, the competition in China's power battery industry will not stop either!

● From a technical point of view, since 2024, super-charged batteries have become one of the technological heights that power battery companies are competing for. Power battery manufacturers and OEMs have launched batteries that can be charged to 80% SOC in 10-15 minutes, or have a range of 400-500 kilometers after charging for 5 minutes. Fast charging has become a common pursuit of battery companies and car companies.

● PHEV models have become the main force driving the continued increase in the penetration rate of new energy, so the demand for PHEV fast-charging batteries with 2C or above will gradually increase. PHEV models with long battery life require a power selection space of 55-70kWh, which can bring a maximum pure electric range of 300-400km, and these are all demands of more than 200,000 yuan. PHEV batteries with low battery life are basically around 10-15kWh, which can meet daily use.

summary

The competition is so fierce that it cannot be simply summarized by the word "volume". In the field of power batteries in 2024, the road ahead will not be easy!