How will driverless cars develop in the future?

The question is, how long will it take for L3 cars to be widely used, and when will L4 cars arrive? IDTechEx's research analysis shows that it usually takes 10-20 years for a technology to be widely used in the automotive market, and L3 cars are expected to become common in the 2030s. Therefore, IDTechEx believes that only then will we see the first L4 technologies on public roads for private use.

Level 4 Robotaxis will also be deployed soon, but it will only operate in very limited geo-fenced areas, making it easier to certify its safe operation.

IDTechEx's "Autonomous Vehicles, Robotaxi and Sensors 2024-2044" report points out that with the rapid development of next-generation technologies and the maturity of driverless services, it will bring an exciting time for the autonomous driving and automated vehicle industry. The company predicts that the emerging L3 level cars and autonomous driving MaaS (mobility as a service) will make the automotive sensor market reach a 13% compound annual growth rate in 10 years.

Robotaxi and Autonomous MaaS

In addition to making progress in the passenger car market, the Robotaxi market is finally starting to enter its nascent stage. In theory, commercial services have been available since 2017, but early examples were limited to early adopter groups rather than the general public. In 2020, when Waymo began letting the public use its fully driverless ride-hailing service in Phoenix, Arizona, that changed.

In 2022, driverless ride-hailing services have been opened to the public in many cities in the United States and China, including San Francisco, Las Vegas, Beijing, Shenzhen, etc. In 2023, companies such as Waymo, Cruise, Baidu ApoLo, etc. are expanding to more cities and adding operating areas in existing locations.

In short, the growth and expansion of Robotaxi services depends largely on whether self-driving cars can prove their safety. In fact, this is not easy to measure. IDTechEx used more than 450 crash reports involving self-driving test cars in California and more than 15 million miles of road test data to conduct an in-depth analysis of Robotaxi safety. These data show that the safety of self-driving cars is improving at an exponential rate. The conclusion of this analysis is that self-driving cars will be close to the safety level of humans in 2023.