Chinese brands are overtaking in corners, only by getting solid-state batteries can they sit back and relax

The rise of China's electric vehicles is inseparable from the success of China's car batteries . GlobalData pointed out in the latest report that China is already the well-deserved leader of new energy vehicles . In 2023, China’s electric vehicle (EV) and hybrid vehicle (hybrid) sales will reach 11.42 million units, which is equivalent to 3.5 times that of the runner-up United States, which has only 335 Thousands of units.

According to the report, the compound annual growth rate of global electric vehicle and hybrid vehicle sales will reach 16.1% from 2023 to 2028, with annual sales reaching 53.9 million vehicles in 2028.

China's growth rate is faster than other regions in the world. In 2023, my country's total sales of new energy vehicles will be approximately 9.5 million, a year-on-year increase of 36%. The sales growth rate of plug-in hybrid vehicles is even more amazing, reaching 80 %.

If Chinese car companies want to maintain and expand their advantages, they must firmly have a say in batteries.

Consolidate lithium batteries  and develop sodium batteries 

The production of battery electric vehicles (BEV) is expected to exceed that of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) from 2024 to 2028. China is leading the competition because of its scale advantage.

Judging from the data, China accounts for 60% of global electric vehicle sales. Electric vehicle sales will increase by 82% week-on-week in 2022, and are expected to continue to grow in the next few years.

In the great growth wave, whoever masters advanced battery technology will get a bigger share of the pie. When users purchase electric vehicles, cruising range is the most important consideration. If BYD cars can have a range of 600 miles (approximately 965 kilometers) and Tesla cars have only 400 miles (approximately 644 kilometers), most car buyers will choose BYD. If the driving range of electric vehicles exceeds the mileage of a tank of gasoline and diesel vehicles, more buyers will embrace electric vehicles.

The price of cobalt-free batteries is relatively friendly, and China's production is far ahead. The price of lithium iron phosphate batteries is also very affordable and favored by manufacturers. It has the characteristics of low cost, high cycle life, safety, etc. China is the main manufacturer of lithium iron phosphate batteries .

The price of lithium iron phosphate cars is almost the same as that of ICE ( internal combustion engine) cars. If BEV wants to completely beat ICE cars in terms of cost performance, it may still have to rely on sodium batteries. Although sodium batteries are less dense, they can be used in combination with lithium iron phosphate batteries

As sodium battery technology advances, it will become an option for short-range, cheap electric vehicles in the future. Looking around the world, only China is planning two sodium battery production plants, so China has taken the lead in the sodium battery competition.

Determining the future, China takes the lead

Chinese electric car manufacturers have formed an alliance, BYD is also a member of the alliance, and the manufacturers are preparing to join forces to develop solid-state batteries. Once solid-state batteries are commercialized, the electric vehicle industry will usher in a revolution. Many consider solid-state batteries to be the next step in battery evolution because they are lighter, store more energy, charge faster, are safer and last longer.

At present, solid-state battery vehicles are still some way away from commercialization. It is expected that this type of vehicle will not be commercialized on a large scale until 2025.

Chen Qingtai, chairman of the China Electric Vehicles Association of 100, said in an interview with Japanese media: "The reason why China's new energy vehicles are at the forefront of the world is mainly because it has mastered advanced battery technology." In the future, China will use this as a basis to fully develop Solid-state battery technology.

GlobalData pointed out in the report that in the field of light vehicle BEV battery cell accessories, China occupies 73% of the global market share and has a transcendent position. Competition in the automotive battery market will intensify in the future, and China's share will decline, but it will still be the leader.

For now, there are still difficulties in mass-producing ceramic and polymer solid-state batteries. Soon some companies will put solid-state battery solutions on the table, but their breakthroughs may not be as big as people expect.

The first one to come on the scene is most likely semi-solid-state batteries, because they have higher energy density, stronger performance, are safer, and the tolerance problem is not that serious. It is entirely possible to take the lead in mass production.

China has already begun to make plans, and its opponents are also planning.

Be the first to mass produce and be the first to commercialize

Toyota plans to start selling solid-state battery vehicles in 2027 or 2028, which can last 1,200 kilometers on a single charge and only take 10 minutes to fully charge. Nissan and Toyota are also developing solid-state batteries. Volkswagen has invested in US solid-state battery startups, and even Microsoft has participated in financing. Microsoft is preparing to use AI tools to help companies find new materials for solid-state batteries .

In the future competition of solid-state battery technology, the United States and Japan will be China's biggest enemies. Of course, there is no need for us to be overly nervous. Japan has been advocating solid-state batteries for many years, and the timetable has been repeatedly delayed. It is difficult to judge whether the various information is true or false.

China has finally obtained the advantage of automobile batteries. Solid-state batteries can eliminate this advantage, and China must prepare in advance. Microsoft's strategy may be effective. China should also introduce AI technology in research and development, mass produce it as soon as possible, and commercialize it as soon as possible.

CITIC Securities pointed out in the report that China currently has a solid-state battery production capacity of 10GWh, and will plan an additional 128GWh in the short to medium term (around 2025). Moreover, this data is incomplete and more projects may be launched.

In the first phase, solid-state batteries will be the first to be used in high-priced products, such as aviation, medical products and high-end new energy vehicles. After 2025, solid-state batteries will be embedded in energy storage, drones, consumer electronics and other products. After 2027, new energy vehicles and storage products will introduce solid-state batteries on a large scale.

According to CITIC Securities' forecast, the global penetration rate of solid-state batteries will reach 1.7% in 2025, with shipments of approximately 38GWh, and will reach 8.4% in 2030, with shipments of 509GWh.

Semi-solid-state batteries will be the first to be commercialized and are expected to emerge in 2024.

CITIC Securities believes that the current cost per Wh of oxide semi-solid batteries is about 0.76 yuan, and that of sulfide semi-solid batteries is about 0.86 yuan, which is significantly higher than that of liquid lithium-ion batteries . Reducing costs remains a top priority.

Cost reduction can only rely on technological breakthroughs, there is no other way.

People evaluate cars

The car war is spreading around the world. China is a newly emerging car giant, and the established car companies are definitely not willing to give up their position. Foreign companies have begun to join forces, including joint investment and joint research and development. China's best strategy is to adhere to multiple technical routes simultaneously, actively cooperate with foreign companies, and advance in the complex situation of "you are among us, and you are among us." Chinese car companies cannot be complacent and must obtain new heights of solid-state batteries to achieve true overtaking in corners.