In the next five years, who will be the world’s number one hybrid?

There is such a hybrid system, which is 26 years old this year. In its 18 years in China, it has sold a total of 2,500,000 units. Its terrifying market share has made it the first choice for hybrids among women and children for a long time.

The current situation of hybridization: seemingly chaotic, but actually clear

It has been more than four years since I started writing the "Hybrid Car Encyclopedia" column in 2019, which coincides with the period of great changes in the hybrid market. Various hybrid technologies can be said to be "blooming", but there is no shortage of a bit of playfulness. .

For example, the series architecture has almost reached the stage of "extended range"; the parallel architecture has gradually faded out of the mainstream application environment and has become a niche group for racing and off-road; while the hybrid architecture has moved away from "single gear to save fuel". "Multi-speed all-round", but many car companies have returned to single-speed, or have gone to "extended range"...

Recently, seven departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Automotive Industry (2023-2024)" (hereinafter referred to as the "Work Plan"), which proposed: "Encourage enterprises to be green and low-carbon oriented and actively explore hybrid and low-carbon fuels." and other technical routes to promote the stable development of the fuel vehicle market." In fact, "energy conservation, emission reduction, and acceleration of carbon neutrality" are the original intention of the new energy policy. Rational and gradual policies require comprehensive development.

Whether it is pure electric, hybrid or fuel cell vehicles, they all have requirements, and there is a progressive relationship at each time node. In the discussion on the technical roadmap of "the future will be gasoline-electric hybrid (HEV) and plug-in hybrid (PHEV)", the China Society of Automotive Engineers released the "Energy-Saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0" as early as 2020, in which It is predicted that "by 2035, the main vehicle model that will replace traditional fuel vehicles will be gasoline-electric hybrid vehicles (HEV)". In addition, judging from the forecast data of relevant institutions, the growth rate of HEV is not weaker than that of other new energy vehicle types.

The logic of hybridization: the balance between oil and electricity

In addition, from some recent meetings and activities, I discovered an interesting "little pattern" - since 2019, all newly released hybrid systems will be given priority on HEV models. Usually, PHEV models will be unveiled one year later, and delivery of PHEV models is often three years after the system is released.

This makes people wonder: A qualified hybrid system must first pass HEV inspection? I think the answer should be yes.

The reason is simple. The basic logic of the hybrid system is "the balance between oil and electricity." Therefore, in my eyes, the systems of "extended range using oil charging" and "using large batteries to reduce oil usage" are somewhat technically "unsophisticated", and it is also difficult to pass the test of this hybrid system. . Even if it is directly installed in a car, it will not bring excellent actual performance. Either the fuel consumption will be high, or there will be various safety hazards, such as stalling under high-speed conditions.

As early as 30 years ago, Toyota started research on hybrid technology with a forward-looking vision. In 1997, it started with the "G21" project. Four years later, Toyota engineers connected oil and electricity through a set of planetary gear mechanical structures that "seemed to have a simple structure, but were actually not complicated." This officially opened Toyota's hybrid era and also introduced the concept of "power splitting." A hybrid architecture brings the pinnacle of hybridization. If you can sum up the biggest feature of Toyota hybrid in one sentence: "One goal, comprehensive balance".

The "goal" is to reduce the energy consumption of the internal combustion engine, which is both a goal and a result. Therefore, we will find that starting from the first generation of Toyota hybrid, its comprehensive fuel consumption (official data) is 4~5L per 100 kilometers. Judging from our previous actual measurement results of 850 kilometers on a 16-year-old "Toyota Prius", we can actually control the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers to about 5.6L. So scary!

"Comprehensive balance" is achieved through the control of the planetary gear mechanical structure. We can also understand it as the means and process to achieve the goal. However, this is the most amazing thing about Toyota Hybrid. In the column, we have talked about the adjustment of Toyota Hybrid under different working conditions (see the table above). It should be said that compared with the simplicity of its mechanical structure, Toyota Hybrid The control logic is "it seems complicated, but in fact it is not simple at all".

Therefore, we can see that Toyota Hybrid has further strengthened and upgraded the "PCU" (Power Control Unit), and finally achieved the "goal" while bringing about the smoothest and quietest hybrid to date. car driving experience.

What is worth noting is that all this happened at the beginning of the development of hybrid systems, a period of unprecedented chaos in terms of technical direction, technology trends, and ultimate experience. Perhaps, Toyota's forward-looking vision and strong technical support can develop such a hybrid product in one go.

Of course, Toyota hybrid is not static, but continues to evolve, with many iterations of various products over the past 26 years. Especially with the launch of the new TNGA platform, the overall hybrid system has been improved almost to the structural limit.

In 2015, the "Corolla Twin Engine" and "Ralink Twin Engine" equipped with domestically produced Toyota hybrid powertrains began to go on sale. Since then, Toyota hybrid sales have begun to rise, and consumers are increasingly recognizing Toyota hybrids. There is even a saying in the market that "there are two types of hybrids in the world, one is Toyota and the other is others".

In fact, from the design of Toyota hybrid, especially in the HEV field, what I see is "simplification and complexity": the planetary gear mechanism that suddenly appeared is simplicity; the control logic is derived from thousands of control schemes, It's complicated.

We have found the balance of "oil and electricity" in "simplicity and complexity", and over the past 26 years, we have further verified that a good hybrid system must be one derived from HEV verification and have full scalability hybrid system. Perhaps this is Toyota's hybrid philosophy.

The hybrid future: experience and scale

Obviously Toyota's hybrid philosophy continues, so the latest generation of Toyota Hybrid (fifth-generation intelligent electric hybrid dual engine) has been upgraded again in the three-electric system.

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• Increase the output power of the motor: Based on the demand for linear power output, by adjusting the throttle operation feel, the acceleration feeling when stepping on the accelerator is more like driving a pure electric vehicle, and the power response is very fast. In the medium and high speed areas, it also has stable acceleration.

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• The "PCU" is more streamlined: through the improvement of conversion elements, energy loss is reduced by 9.2%, and current output is increased by more than 8% (from 120A to 130A), which shows that the power density has been greatly improved. And by increasing the working band of the booster, the noise is reduced and the quietness is greatly improved.

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• Adopt new lithium battery: Toyota has newly developed a lithium battery system for HEV models. Compared with the previous nickel-metal hydride battery, the volume is reduced by 34%, the weight is reduced by 44%, and the power output is increased by 8%. The battery unit is resistant to puncture, short circuit, collision damage, and Self-ignition prevention and control tests, including overcharging, ensure that spontaneous combustion will not occur.

Taking the new generation of 1.8L Toyota hybrid as an example, compared with the fourth generation technology, the weight of the three-electric system is reduced by 13.3kg, the comprehensive power is increased by 12%, and the fuel consumption per 100 kilometers is reduced by 8.4% to only 4.06L. To sum up, it is: more economical, faster and more precise. The experience brought by these technical features will also be upgraded to a higher level, with a quieter driving environment, faster speed-up performance, and a safer and more stable driving experience.

In addition, in line with the new generation of Toyota hybrid technology, the new model will also be equipped with rich intelligent configurations such as the new T-Pilot intelligent driving assistance system, Toyota Space intelligent cockpit, Toyota Connect intelligent interconnection, etc., bringing more fun to driving.

In fact, for me now, Toyota hybrid is the hybrid system that I least want to talk about the technical details, because 26 years of accumulation makes the "power" of Toyota hybrid unnecessary to elaborate. And the excellent driving experience it brings is what car owners are more willing to talk about. During a previous actual test of the 2006 Prius, my colleague A Chui (the owner of a BMW 3 Series) made a comment that remains fresh in my memory: "I didn't expect that such an old car could have such a neat chassis." Such an old hybrid system can still run so smoothly. 』

This reminds me of the famous Japanese journalist Kiichiro Yokota who once set a record of driving a Prius across five continents. He drove the first-generation Prius across the North American continent , the European continent, the American jungle, the Sahara Desert, the Tibetan Plateau and other regions. What’s even more interesting is that during the 12 years of driving across five continents, it is said that it has not encountered any major faults or problems.