Foreign media: China is leading the next wave of major technological innovation in rechargeable batteries

Recently, "People's Daily Overseas Edition" cited the "New York Times" report that China is replacing lithium with lower-cost and more abundant metallic sodium, leading the next wave of major technological innovation in rechargeable batteries.

According to data from the British battery raw materials consulting company Benchmark Mining Intelligence Agency, 16 of the 20 sodium battery factories currently planned or constructed around the world are in China. In the next two years, China's sodium battery production capacity will account for nearly 95% of the world's total.

The "Nihon Keizai Shimbun" website also reported that in the field of sodium-ion batteries that countries are focusing on, the number of patents obtained by China currently far exceeds that of Western countries such as the United States. As of December 2022, the total number of valid patents in this field is 9,862, of which 5,486 come from China.

Domestically, although the leading sodium power companies have first-mover advantages in the industrialization process, the "sodium-lithium dispute" has been ongoing due to the price adjustment of lithium carbonate. However, some people in the industry pointed out that sodium batteries and lithium batteries are not currently in a direct competition relationship. Sodium batteries should be regarded as a necessary supplement to lithium batteries, so that these two technical routes can move forward in the game of material costs and will be more It is conducive to the overall development of my country's battery industry.

Duofludo stated on the investor interaction platform in February this year that even if the price of lithium carbonate drops to 100,000 yuan/ton, sodium electricity will still be competitive.

The agency predicts that by the end of 2023, the industry will have a dedicated mass production line capacity for sodium-ion batteries of 13.5GWh; by 2030, the actual shipment volume of sodium-ion batteries may reach 347GWh.

In fact, facing the needs of diversified scenarios in the future, my country is not only in full swing in the field of sodium batteries, but also in new materials and new technologies on technical routes such as 46 series large cylindrical batteries, new phosphate batteries, and semi-solid/condensed batteries. The level of technology and new technology is also leading the world.

01

China's sodium battery enters a period of accelerated industrialization

According to incomplete statistics, there are currently more than 150 companies in China's sodium battery industry chain, including leading battery companies such as CATL, Funeng Technology, Zhengli New Energy, Far East Battery, Penghui Energy, Xinwangda, and Huayu New Energy. All have accelerated the pace of industrialization of sodium batteries.

On April 16, CATL announced that its sodium-ion battery will be launched on Chery models for the first time. Chery Automobile also announced that it will cooperate with CATL to launch a new battery brand "ENER-Q". ENER-Q batteries have a long life of 8 years and 800,000 kilometers, and can also work in a -30°C environment, showing that sodium-ion batteries have huge market potential.

In March this year, Funeng Technology received a designation letter for sodium batteries used in EV3 models from Jiangling Group. The latter will purchase sodium-ion battery pack assemblies from Funeng Technology and require it to start mass production before June 30, 2023; Sihao The Sihao EX10 Hua Xianzi, the industry's first prototype vehicle equipped with a sodium-ion battery, jointly built by New Energy and Zhongke Haina, was publicly unveiled in February this year.

Zhengli New Energy recently announced that its first batch of high-power sodium-ion batteries have been installed and tested overseas. The battery cells have a capacity retention rate of up to 94% at a discharge rate of 20C and a capacity retention rate of 92% at a low temperature of -20°C.

Far East Battery also recently revealed that its first-generation sodium-ion battery products have now entered the A-type optimization stage, and will develop sodium-electric products with different performances to deploy in diversified markets, empowering light vehicles and two-wheel drive vehicles with low-cost, high-energy-density sodium electricity. Small power market such as wheeled vehicles; energy storage market powered by low-cost, long-cycle sodium electricity.

Mengshi Technology launched its series of iterative sodium battery products during the Canton Fair this year, which will be the first to be used in starting cars and motorcycles. It also stated that it may mass-produce 1 million sodium-ion batteries this year. It is currently in the sodium battery market. The goal is to replace lead-acid batteries.

Overall, battery companies, on the one hand, continue to improve the performance of sodium batteries through technological innovation, and on the other hand, they are accurately "stuck" in the application of sodium batteries to speed up the industrialization process of sodium batteries and further expand the scale of industrialization.

02

46 series large cylindrical batteries will become one of the mainstream battery technologies in the future

From the perspective of "the optimal solution for high-end car batteries", the 46 series large cylindrical batteries have received widespread attention from the industry in the past two years. More and more battery companies and car companies have joined the 46 series large cylindrical battery manufacturing camp.

In February this year, Guoxuan Hi-Tech’s 4695 cylindrical battery project with an annual output of 10GWh settled in Hefei.

The large cylindrical battery released by Yiwei Lithium Energy in December last year has a single energy density of 350Wh/kg and supports ultra-fast charging in 9 minutes. The large cylindrical battery project is currently being progressed in an orderly manner as planned.

At present, domestic manufacturers including CATL, Everview Lithium Energy, BAK Battery, Envision Power, Guoxuan High-Tech, Honeycomb Energy and other domestic manufacturers have deployed large cylindrical batteries.

CICC predicts that 2023 will be the first year of the explosion of 4680 batteries. The global installed capacity of 4680 batteries is expected to exceed 20GWh and will exceed 100GWh in 2024. Northeast Securities predicts that the global installed capacity of 46 series large cylindrical batteries is expected to reach 255GWh in 2025, and the global new installed market penetration rate can increase to 20%.

The industry generally believes that the 46-series large cylindrical battery will become one of the mainstream battery technology routes in the future, and the stable mass production of the new system is not only an urgent technical problem that needs to be solved, but also an important issue faced by the application of new materials, new processes, and new equipment. Development Opportunities.

03

Battery technology routes show a diversified trend

It is worth mentioning that the current domestic battery technology route is "letting a hundred flowers bloom", and a large number of players are also participating in new phosphate battery, semi-solid battery, condensed matter battery and other technical routes.

It is understood that many battery companies are accelerating the launch of new phosphate battery products, hoping to further replace medium-nickel ternary batteries with cost and other advantages by improving low temperature, cycle, energy density and charge and discharge performance.

In addition, CATL released its condensed matter battery in April this year, with a single energy density of up to 500Wh/kg, which has both high energy density and high safety characteristics. Its condensed matter battery for passenger cars will have mass production capabilities this year. .

At the same time, many companies such as Honeycomb Energy, Gateway Power, Ruipu Lanjun, and Sunwanda have announced their semi-solid battery technology and product research and development progress. Battery companies such as Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Funeng Technology, and Ganfeng Lithium Battery have also made industrial progress in the research and development of semi-solid-state batteries.

It is worth noting that in the process of upgrading different battery technology routes, the research and development and application of related new materials, new processes, and new equipment will directly benefit.

04

New materials, new processes, and new equipment enable new technological routes

Taking the 46 series large cylindrical battery as an example, it will drive increased demand for high-nickel positive electrodes, silicon-based negative electrodes and other materials, as well as full-tab processes and equipment.

In terms of new materials, high-nickel cathodes and silicon-based anodes are the main ways to achieve high energy density of batteries. Guolian Securities predicts that the demand for high-nickel cathodes and silicon-based anodes directly driven by 4680 batteries will be 230,000 tons and 14,000 tons respectively in 2025. million tons, the CAGR from 2022 to 2025 can reach 161%.

At the same time, PET copper foil and LiFSI are also expected to achieve accelerated application in the field of 4680 batteries. According to calculations by Guolian Securities, the penetration rate of PET copper foil will reach 20% in 2025, corresponding to a demand of 5.44 billion square meters, a market space of 27.2 billion yuan, and a CAGR of 245.16% from 2022 to 2025. The total demand for LiFSI is expected to reach 339,000 tons by 2025, with a CAGR of 58% from 2022 to 2025.

In terms of new processes and new equipment, with the joint efforts of leading battery and equipment companies, as the iconic process of large cylindrical batteries, the full-tab process will be continuously optimized, and related equipment will also be upgraded.

CITIC Construction Investment data shows that the bidding volume for 46 series large cylindrical battery equipment alone is expected to reach 20GWh~30GWh in 2023, and related lithium battery equipment companies are expected to be the first to benefit.