Siege of Ningde era, power battery secret war escalates

The Ningde era extended its hand of expansion to the United States of America across the ocean.

On February 14, 2023, Ford Motor announced that it would jointly build a lithium iron phosphate battery factory in Michigan, USA, with CATL, with a total investment of US$3.5 billion (approximately 23.8 billion yuan).

Subsequently, the relevant person in charge of CATL said, "CATL has accepted the cooperation invitation from Ford of the United States, and will provide preparation and operation services for its battery factory in Michigan , and license its patented battery technology."

Ford said it will own the new plant through a wholly-owned subsidiary rather than operating it as a joint venture with CATL. However, most industry insiders believe that this is of great significance to continue to consolidate CATL’s global leading position.

On February 7, according to data from South Korean market research institution SNE Research, the global installed capacity of power batteries in 2022 will be 517.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 71.8%. Among them, CATL once again won the global power battery market championship, with an installed capacity of 191.6GWh, a significant year-on-year increase of 92.5%, and a market share of 37% (exceeding LG New Energy, BYD , and Panasonic combined).

The top ten companies are: CATL, LG New Energy, BYD, Panasonic, SK On, Samsung SDI, China New Aviation, Guoxuan Hi-Tech , Sunwoda , and Funeng Technology . What is gratifying is that Chinese companies occupy six seats, with market share reaching a new high of 60.4%, and leading the list in year-on-year growth.

Data shows that the top ten power battery companies have a total market share of 91.4%, and the degree of concentration has increased again, which has also intensified competition among power battery companies.

With the rapid growth of new energy vehicles worldwide , the power battery industry is experiencing unprecedented prosperity. As the "heart" of new energy vehicles, power batteries have experienced rounds of market competition and the industrial structure has become increasingly stable. However, under the influence of factors such as the epidemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, rising raw material prices, and the continuous iteration of new technologies, it has also New variables have emerged.

On the one hand, the Matthew effect is weakened. In addition to CATL, the shares of other companies have also gradually increased. Among them, LG New Energy has a rapid development momentum, especially in international market expansion. BYD has experienced explosive growth and its status has risen rapidly due to the explosive growth of its own products. Second-tier battery manufacturers such as Panasonic, SK On, Samsung SDI, and China New Aviation are also well-established. Increase capital, expand production, and industry alliances to seize the market with first-tier companies.

On the other hand, the secret war on technology has escalated. At this stage, whether it is ternary lithium batteries or lithium iron phosphate batteries, the technology development has been relatively mature, and it is difficult to achieve major breakthroughs. Sodium-ion batteries , semi-solid batteries, solid-state batteries and even fuel cells may explode collectively in the near future. If they want to change the existing competitive landscape, the second echelon may only have technological innovation as its only option.

Throughout 2022, listing and expansion have become key words in the power battery industry. With the help of capital, power battery companies are running against the wind, and the scale advantage of the industrial chain is becoming more and more stable. Facing more intense competition in 2023, what challenges and disruptions will they face?

01.

The second-tier echelon seizes food from the tiger's mouth

From the perspective of the entire power battery industry, CATL, with a total market value of over RMB 1 trillion, is still the biggest winner.

In the global market, CATL has been the world's largest power battery company for six consecutive years. In the Chinese market, CATL continues to account for half of the country's installed capacity. In 2022, its power battery installed capacity will be 142.02GWh, and its domestic market share will reach 48.2%.

Although CATL has always been at the top of the industry, as competition in the industry intensified, CATL's installed capacity share dropped to 44.41% in January this year. BYD relied on its own sales advantage to follow closely behind, with its market share rising to 34.12%, and the distance with CATL shortened to 10 percentage points. The market share of Sino-Sino Innovation Aviation’s installed aircraft capacity increased to 4.93%.

In the changing situation, opportunities abound. Overall, the top ten companies in China's power battery industry have maintained a relatively stable position in the industry. However, with the influx of capital from multiple parties and industry expansion, industry competition has once again intensified, forming a situation of besieging the Ningde era.

The reason why CATL is the dominant player is that it has the largest number of car companies choosing it as a battery supplier.

According to Bangning Studio statistics, whether it is traditional car companies such as Geely, Changan, SAIC, and GAC, or new car manufacturing forces such as Weilai, Xpeng, and Ideal, or Tesla , FAW-Volkswagen, SAIC Volkswagen, and BMW Brilliance , SAIC-GM and other foreign-funded and joint-venture car companies are all covered by CATL.

Among them, Tesla has become the largest customer of CATL for two consecutive years. In 2022, the domestic installed market share of Model 3 will reach 85%, an increase of about 5% from the previous year. The domestic installed market share of Model Y will also reach 80%. %. At the beginning of this year, Tesla launched a global dimensionality reduction price reduction, which will not only stimulate sales growth, but also drive increased demand for power battery accessories.

BYD's rapid growth is due to the high sales of its many popular models.

In 2022, BYD won the global new energy vehicle sales championship with annual sales of 1.868 million vehicles, a significant year-on-year increase of 152.46%. Driven by sales, BYD's installed power will reach 69.10GWh in 2022, a year-on-year increase of nearly 1.7 times. The domestic market share has also increased from 16.83% in 2021 to 23.45%. In the global market, BYD overtook Panasonic and won the runner-up position together with LG New Energy.

In 2023, BYD's sales target is 4 million vehicles. If this target can be successfully achieved, BYD may be evenly matched with CATL.

In the second echelon, companies such as China Airlines, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Sunwoda, and Honeycomb Energy are all accelerating to catch up and seize the Ningde era.

For example, benefiting from the hot sales of models of GAC, Changan, Xpeng, NIO and other brands, Innovative Aviation's installed capacity will firmly occupy the top three domestic seats in mid-2022, with domestic installed capacity of 19.24GWh, a year-on-year increase of more than 70%.

While the domestic market continues to consolidate, Airline's share of global installed capacity is expected to further increase by mid-2023. The European version of Xpeng's overseas model series P7, exclusively supplied by Sino-Innovation Aviation, is about to go overseas; the exclusive Smart Elf will be sold overseas; and the new Volvo model equipped with Sino-Innovation Aviation batteries is expected to be exported this year. In addition, China Airlines has also successfully won orders from car companies in overseas regions such as Europe and the United States.

With the growth in sales of Dongfeng, Geely and other car companies, Sunwanda has become the domestic power battery company with the highest year-on-year growth rate in 2022, reaching 534%. Continuing its growth momentum, in January this year, Sunwanda's installed capacity surpassed companies such as Honeycomb Energy and LG New Energy, ranking sixth in the domestic power battery rankings.

In addition to developing customers, the place where power batteries compete with bayonets is to increase capital and expand production. Incomplete statistics show that in 2022 (as of December 5), power battery companies have announced as many as 94 newly announced investment expansion projects in the field of lithium battery production and manufacturing alone, of which 76 have announced investment amounts, with a total amount exceeding 874.7 billion Yuan, with the average investment amount per project exceeding 11.5 billion Yuan.

At the beginning of the new year of 2023, many power battery companies are eager to start new projects and join the tide of production expansion.

On January 4, the groundbreaking ceremony of BYD's new energy power battery Xuzhou production base was held in Xuzhou; on January 18, Yiwei Lithium Energy signed an investment cooperation agreement with the Jianyang Municipal People's Government on the 20GWh power energy storage battery production base project; on January 19 Today, Ganfeng Lithium Industry plans to invest in the construction of a new lithium battery and energy storage headquarters project with an annual output of 10GWh in Dongguan , with a total planned investment of 5 billion yuan.

With the rise of many power battery companies, CATL's dominance is being challenged, especially in the field of lithium iron phosphate, where BYD has a greater advantage.

However, some relevant industry insiders believe that CATL will still occupy the vast majority of the market share in recent years, and competition among second-tier power battery companies will once again intensify, while many third-tier power battery companies lack high-quality customers and scale advantages, making it relatively more difficult.

02.

Semi-solid-state batteries are emerging

Currently, it has become a common consensus among power battery manufacturers to seize market share through technological innovation .