2023 will be a big year for hybrids-EEWORLD

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In the past few years, local new energy car companies, which have been criticized for being "hollowed out", have staged a wonderful counterattack. By relying on their early deployment of electrification, and by relying on the developer ecosystem established in the smartphone era, they have led the way in intelligence, and have impacted Europe and the United States. The Japanese and Korean giants made a perfect overtaking in a corner. The penetration rate of local car companies in the domestic auto market is rising. In October, the retail market share of independent brands reached 51.5%, crossing the 50% mark for the first time!

Against the background of the overall upward trend of local car companies, new car-making forces, joint venture brands, and traditional independent brands are also performing a story of changing trends.

In the first few years, the new forces that relied on intelligence, the Internet, user thinking, and the direct-sales model to take the lead were unparalleled in their success, leaving behind the golden saying "Once the traditional forces worked hard, they realized that it would be better not to work hard." However, this year they have encountered difficulties. On the contrary, the overall growth has slowed down, and it is gradually being overtaken by traditional forces.

Especially since this year, traditional car companies have gradually discovered the secret weapon to overtake the new forces - hybrid power.

Crossing the river by touching BYD

If 2021 is the world of pure electric power, then 2022 will become the stage of hybrid power.

According to statistics from the Passenger Car Association, from January to October 2022, the cumulative sales of pure electric models were 3.8833 million units, a year-on-year increase of 95.89%, and the cumulative sales of plug-in hybrid models were 1.1341 million units, a year-on-year increase of 177.38%. Although pure electric vehicles still dominate the total volume, their growth rate has lagged far behind plug-in hybrids.

The explosion of plug-in hybrids is inseparable from the strong appeal of BYD, the leader. Since entering 2022, BYD's sales have continued to rise, setting new monthly sales highs. Among this dazzling results, the proportion of DM models has continued to increase, and now it accounts for more than half. In October, BYD sold 114,361 DM hybrid models and 103,157 EV pure electric models. Its "two legs, walking together" strategy has gradually shown a tendency to shift towards hybrid models.

BYD's brilliance is seen by everyone and envied in their hearts. Although it is said that those who imitate me will live and those who imitate me will die, but top students still have to copy their homework.

Therefore, since the second half of last year, various traditional forces have released hybrid configurations equipped with self-developed hybrid engines, ushering in a hybrid spring in which a hundred flowers bloom. Great Wall Lemon DHT, Geely Thor Power, Changan Blue Whale iDD hybrid, GAC Julang hybrid, Chery Kunpeng DHT hybrid, you sing and I come on stage, setting off a debate, moistening things and spreading marketing words silently. Subtly capture the user's mind.

In short, everyone wants to be second to BYD, and every family wants to rely on hybrid power to contribute to their own new energy transformation. Especially in the context of losing one unit when selling one, hybrid power has been given the task of achieving profitability!

Help establish a closed business loop

This year's leading new power camp, the King's Banner at the top of the city, Wei Xiaoli's growth rate has completely fallen behind, handing over the Top 3 position to "new new forces" such as Nezha, Zero Pao, and Wenjie. With the growth rate, decline, and the losses of new front-line forces continue to expand.

Big money burner - Weilai's losses this year are particularly eye-catching, with a loss of 1.78 billion in the first quarter, a loss of 2.758 billion in the second quarter, and a net loss of 3.46 billion yuan in the third quarter. Before this year is over, it has already lost 80 small targets. The more you sell, the more you lose. If this continues, there will come a day when 'the landlord's family will have no more food left.'

Regarding this point, Weimar, which has long been reduced to a second-tier new force, sees this very clearly. Shen Hui, the founder of WM Motor, who was on the hot search topic some time ago because of his sky-high annual salary of '1.2 billion', recently contributed a golden saying: The sales ranking of new energy vehicles is the loss ranking! Mr. Shen said that WM Motor was the first car company to realize that it was losing sales, so it decided early on to start strategic contraction in June and July.

Well, this is the first time I have seen someone express "I don't want to work hard anymore" in such a fresh and refined way! However, ridicule is ridicule, Shen Hui still pointed out the unreasonable status quo of the current new energy vehicle industry chain - the closer companies are to users, the greater their losses.

If you look carefully, this is indeed the case. Car companies that directly face consumers lose money on each unit they sell. Midstream battery factories are quite profitable. Ningwang’s gross profit margin in the last two quarters has been around 20%. Upstream raw materials Manufacturers are even more profitable. The net profits of Tianqi Lithium Industry and Ganfeng Lithium Industry each increased by hundreds of percent. After a long time, the OEM that was originally at the top of the food chain became the miserable one. Wage earner.

what to do? Pure electric car companies, traditional car companies and new forces that walk on two legs have given different answers.

Make batteries next time

Pure electric car companies such as Weilai and Aion have chosen to manufacture batteries themselves.

On October 21, NIO established NIO Battery Technology Co., Ltd. with a registered capital of 2 billion yuan. Li Bin personally served as the chairman, officially ending battery manufacturing. On October 27, GAC Aian announced that Inpai Battery Technology Co., Ltd. was officially registered and established with a registered capital of 1 billion yuan and a total investment of 10.9 billion yuan to carry out the industrialization construction of self-research and production of batteries, as well as the production, manufacturing and sales of independent batteries. .

Although Li Xiang once said that batteries are like gasoline in the era of fuel vehicles. Fuel vehicle companies will not build refineries, so there is no need for electric vehicle companies to build batteries themselves. However, by doing a simple calculation, the logic behind NIO and Aian’s battery manufacturing can be extracted.

At present, the battery cost accounts for about 40% of the total vehicle cost. Based on Ningwang’s 20% gross profit from selling batteries, making the battery yourself can increase the vehicle’s gross profit margin by 40% x 20% = 8%. This is A quite impressive number. You must know that BYD's gross profit from complete vehicles is only five or six percentage points!

Layout hybrid

Unlike Weilai and Aian, which achieve cost reduction by lowering the unit price of batteries, Nezha, Leapo, Changan, Great Wall and other traditional car companies have adopted the path of reducing costs by reducing battery usage.

Nezha S, which was released in July and started delivery in November, offers both pure electric and extended-range models. Leapmotor launched the C11 extended-range model, which will start delivery in December, and plans to launch the C01 extended-range version next year. Moreover, in the future All models developed on the new platform will be available in extended range and pure electric versions at the same time. In addition to providing a symbolic hydrogen fuel cell vehicle, Changan's dark blue SL03 also provides two options: extended range and pure electric.

According to the configuration information of these models, the battery packs installed in the extended-range models are roughly around 40 degrees Celsius. The other experiences are exactly the same. The extended-range models, which can be used on both fuel and electricity and have a longer range, are generally 30 to 50% cheaper than the pure electric version. Around 10,000.

As a result, everyone has seen that more than half of the sales of the Deep Blue SL03 are contributed by the extended-range version.

In essence, according to the calculation formula of battery cost = battery unit price x battery usage, although the above two routes are different, they ultimately lead to the same goal. However, in comparison, hybrid power can also provide cost advantages on the body.

For pure electric vehicles, in order to achieve high endurance, large-capacity batteries are indispensable. However, limited by the energy density of current batteries, large batteries mean heavy weight. In order to control the weight of the entire vehicle, it must be higher. Therefore, it is actually a helpless choice for the all-aluminum body to become the standard configuration of high-end electric vehicles.

In comparison, hybrids that eliminate more than half of the battery do not have this concern. They can generously use a safer, cheaper and heavier steel-aluminum hybrid body.

A divine assist for the national supplementary withdrawal

Some time ago, after brewing for a while, Tesla launched a big price reduction promotion with real money. The price of each of its models ranged from 14,000 to 37,000 yuan. Not long after, there was another 8,000 yuan insurance subsidy. .

Driven by Tesla, Xpeng and Leapao have also launched 'price reduction' offers. While the local new energy market is being shrouded in the chill of being forced to cut prices, BYD has taken the lead in firing the first shot of price increases.

On November 23, BYD Auto’s official Weibo announced that BYD Auto will adjust the official guide prices of new energy models related to Dynasty, Ocean and Denza, with the increase ranging from 2,000 yuan to 6,000 yuan. In the price increase notice, BYD generously gave two major reasons for the adjustment: the withdrawal of state subsidies for new energy vehicles and the price increase of battery raw materials.