Solid-state/sodium battery/lithium iron phosphate! Top ten keywords for the lithium battery industry in 2021 (Part 2)

Continuing from the previous issue, today’s content is the next issue of the top ten key words in the lithium battery industry in 2021 .

Solid-state batteries that made a splash

Since the 150kWh solid-state battery pack of NIO was launched at the beginning of this year, it has been unstoppable. Both the capital and lithium battery industry have paid great attention to solid-state batteries and carried out a series of investment activities and research and development layouts.

At that time, in addition to the impact on the midstream of lithium batteries, the diaphragms and electrolytes all fell sharply in the early trading the next day. There was also a lot of speculation in the market about the candidates for NIO's solid-state battery supplier.

It was not until December 23 that an article from 36Kr Pro officially revealed the secret of NIO's 150kWh semi-solid-state battery pack project. The partner was not CATL , but WeiLan New Energy, which has received investments from large strategic parties such as Xiaomi Industrial Investment, Huawei Habour and Geely Group.

Solid-state batteries have always been seen as a way to break through the performance limitations of today's electric vehicles because they use solid electrolytes, replacing the electrolytes and separators of traditional lithium-ion batteries . They can significantly reduce the risk of thermal runaway and provide better safety. By using a metallic lithium negative electrode, the battery energy density can be increased by more than 70%.

Currently, the main players in the field of solid-state batteries include three categories: the first category is independent research and development by automobile companies, mainly represented by Japanese companies such as Toyota, Honda, and Nissan; the second category is power battery companies. Currently, leading power battery companies in China, Japan, South Korea and other countries are increasing their research and development of power batteries; the third category is start-ups, many of which have received investment from well-known multinational companies.

Driven by capital, investment in the field of solid-state batteries continues to be hot both internationally and domestically.

In the international market, since 2021, many multinational companies led by Toyota, Volkswagen, BMW, Daimler, etc. have mentioned their layout in the battery industry when announcing their electric vehicle development plans, and have formulated solid-state battery business plans and carried out related business layouts.

Among domestic automobile companies, those that have clearly planned to develop solid-state batteries include BYD , NIO, BAIC New Energy , Dongfeng Motor, SAIC Group, Great Wall Motors and other companies.

Battery companies include BYD, CATL, China Innovation Aviation, Guoxuan High-tech , Ganfeng Lithium , Honeycomb Energy, ProLogium Technology, Qingtao Energy, Weilan New Energy, LG Energy Solution, Quantum Scape, etc.

In general, solid-state batteries are already on the rise. Whether for car companies, power battery companies or start-ups, it is a new track that is full of potential but also extremely challenging.

The return of sodium batteries

If you are strong, I am strong too. Half a year after the solid-state battery craze at the beginning of the year, at the end of July, CATL officially announced its first-generation sodium-ion battery technology, which not only successfully set off a trend for sodium batteries, but also marked the grand return of sodium batteries.

Thinking back, why did sodium batteries once start at the same level as lithium batteries , but eventually fell far behind? The reason is that the electrode materials of lithium batteries were the first to achieve a breakthrough and were commercialized by Sony. In the subsequent development process, the energy density of sodium batteries has never surpassed that of lithium batteries.

The reason why sodium batteries are favored again this year is that as a new generation of electrochemical energy storage battery technology with great potential, sodium batteries have performance advantages such as long cycle, wide operating temperature, and high rate, and have solved the "bottleneck" problem of scarce resources. The advantages of no resource restrictions, low cost, and high safety make sodium-ion batteries an important optional path for large-scale energy storage.

Specifically, the core raw materials of sodium batteries have higher reserves and are easier to mine. In contrast, the global reserves of lithium are pitifully small. Data show that the content of lithium in the earth's crust is only 0.0065%, while the content of sodium is 2.75%, and 80% of my country's lithium resources are heavily dependent on imports.

In addition, the BOM cost of sodium batteries is 20% lower than that of lithium batteries, and is a lower-cost battery than lithium iron phosphate batteries . Moreover, it has excellent high and low temperature performance, is highly safe in the face of extrusion, puncture and other situations, and has fast charging capabilities.

At present, in addition to CATL, companies including Shandong Zhanggu, Sacred Sun Power, Xinwangda , Penghui Energy, and Baichuan Power have already made great efforts to plan.

However, as mentioned earlier, although sodium batteries have outstanding advantages, their energy density is still somewhat lower than that of lithium batteries, and they cannot be applied to the field of new energy vehicles for the time being . However, they can partially replace lithium batteries in two-wheeled vehicles, energy storage, battery replacement, and some high-latitude scenarios. This was also the original plan of CATL.

Of course, the companies that have already made arrangements are not satisfied with this. They are all increasing their R&D efforts and planning to expand the use of sodium batteries to power battery systems. It is believed that with the innovative breakthroughs in raw materials and other technologies, sodium batteries may make a grand comeback, and the battery market will also usher in a flourishing situation.

Unlimited lithium iron phosphate

2021 is the year when lithium iron phosphate shines. On the one hand, the price has soared. The price of lithium iron phosphate was 37,000 yuan/ton in January, and as of December 27, the price was 99,000 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 167.57% throughout the year, an increase of 62,000 yuan/ton.

On the other hand, a crazy expansion mode was launched, and a three-legged situation was formed. Not only did the iron-lithium enterprises expand production significantly, but the upstream titanium dioxide enterprises and phosphorus chemical enterprises also crossed over to join the game. According to incomplete statistics, a total of 13 enterprises have invested in lithium iron phosphate projects for lithium batteries this year, with a planned production capacity of more than 4 million tons/year.

In addition, according to SMM data statistics, based on the current public information released in the industry, it is estimated that the output of lithium iron phosphate materials will increase significantly to 1.43 million tons by 2025. In 2020, the total output of the lithium iron phosphate industry was only 146,000 tons, which means that the production capacity has increased by nearly 10 times!

The reason why lithium iron phosphate has ushered in explosive cross-border entry and growth is mainly because lithium iron phosphate materials have been suppressed by ternary materials for a long time, the industry has been relatively prosperous, the overall production capacity is low, and there is no plan for substantial expansion. Since the fourth quarter of last year, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in new energy vehicle terminal applications has begun to increase. In 2021, it has been full of momentum, staging a "return of the king" drama.

Data shows that from January to November this year, my country's power battery production totaled 188.1GWh, a year-on-year cumulative increase of 175.5%. Among them, the production of lithium iron phosphate batteries totaled 105.3GWh, accounting for 56% of the total production, a year-on-year cumulative increase of 275.7%; the production of ternary batteries totaled 82.4GWh, accounting for 43.8% of the total production, a year-on-year cumulative increase of 106.1%.

In terms of installed capacity, my country's power battery installed capacity totaled 128.3GWh, up 153.1% year-on-year. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary batteries totaled 63.3GWh, accounting for 49.3% of the total installed capacity, up 92.5% year-on-year; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries totaled 64.8GWh, accounting for 50.5% of the total installed capacity, up 270.3% year-on-year.

From this point of view, in 2021, lithium iron phosphate batteries have completely surpassed ternary batteries in terms of production, installed capacity, etc.

Accelerated implementation of dual energy consumption control

In September 2021, my country's "dual control of energy consumption" policy was accelerated, and many provinces including Guangdong, Jiangsu, Hunan, Jilin, and Liaoning successively launched power rationing procedures. At the same time, enterprises in many regions also received power rationing notices from local energy bureaus and were required to implement "start three and stop four", or even "start two and stop five".

The lithium battery industry chain is an energy-consuming industry chain and is inevitably affected by this round of power and production restrictions. It is understood that the production plans of precursor and cathode material companies in Guangdong, Hunan, Jiangsu and other places have been greatly affected by the strict local power restrictions, with an average production reduction of more than 20%, and some companies have even chosen to stop production directly.

By the end of October, most companies in the lithium battery industry chain across the country had resumed normal production.